Transcript Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping

Possible Effects of Climate Change on
the Shipping Industry
WMU Climate Change Workshop
7-8 June 2007
Malmo
Tim Wilkins
Regional Manager Asia Pacific / Environmental Manager
[email protected]
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
INTERTANKO
• International Association of Independent Tanker Owners
• Trade Association for tanker owners
• 260 members, 40 countries, 2500 tankers,
• 300 Associate Members
• INTERTANKO office 25 persons
• Representation – IMO, Brussels Washington
• Information advisory service
• Oslo – London - Washington – Singapore
Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve
the goals of:
Zero fatalities
Zero pollution
Zero detentions
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Overview
• Shipping effects on Climate Change
• IMO discussions on Annex VI – CO2 and other GHGs
• Fuel consumption enhancement
• What will/does Climate Change mean?
• Are we already witnessing the evolution of Climate Change effects?
• Climate Change effects on Shipping
• Based on the ‘Assumptions’
• What can the shipping industry expect
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Climate Change
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Assumptions (generalised)
i.
Warmer Seas
ii. Sea Level Rise
iii. Unpredictable Weather Patterns
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Climate Change
i.
Warmer Seas
• Invasive Species Risk Increase
Ballast water e.g. Great Lakes Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia
• Continued importance of finding treatment systems for ballast
water
• Greater and increased vigilance by coastal states
Biofouling
• Crucial role of anti-fouling systems and hull fouling management
• Increased requirements on shipping industry associated with
biofouling
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Climate Change
i.
Warmer Seas cntd.
• Ice sheet reductions
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Opening up of new sea routes
Oil spill response
Tug escort and ice breaker capability
Mammal population changes e.g. North Atlantic Right Whale
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New navigation considerations
ii. Sea Level Rise
• Physical change of coastal zone
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Change in port infrastructure and expansion
Physical change of water basin
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Opening up of new inland navigable routes
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Climate Change
iii. Unpredictable Weather Patterns
• Increased Storm intensity
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Wave and swell height / periodicity increases
100 year storm design criteria may need to be revised
Increased storm frequency
• Raises question of fatigue analysis and design life of structure
Weather Routing
• Increasing dependency in weather routing
• Recognition of increased intensity of storms by commercial
entities (consumer and charterer)
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Climate Change
iii. Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd.
• Warmer climate
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Reduction of ice sheets leading to increased evaporation in smaller
sea areas e.g. Great Lakes
Drought conditions
Reduced under keel clearance and reduced cargo loading
capability
Terrestrial Matters
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Drought / Storm frequency leading to increased sedimentation
Increased sediment loading of navigable channels
Increased dredging to maintain under keel clearance or
Reduced cargo carrying capabilities
New designs e.g. Stena V-Max
Emerging markets e.g. new agricultural, shifting oil demand
Changing trading patterns to be envisaged
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Climate Change
iii. Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd.
• Seasonal Changes
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Tropical storms August to November now to January
Design life and fatigue issues (Atlantic storm/Pacific storm)
Shortened winters and decreased severity of winters will effect
iced waterways
Increased trade opportunities
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
Conclusions
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Industry will need to know and understand the perceived physical
and biological changes which climate change will bring
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Time frame assessment – design and commercial consideration
when investing in tonnage
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Monitoring and assessment should begin on what can reasonably
be attributed to climate change
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Regional variations will be a major concern for an international
industry
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007
Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry
www.intertanko.com
thank you for your time…
WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007