Transcript Economics of CBPP in Kenya

Economics of CBPP control in Kenya
Dr Joshua Onono
A presentation made at Ahmadu Bello University,
Zaria, Nigeria: 3rd/ April/2014
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Outline
• Introduction
• Economic analysis framework
a. Partial budget
b. Decision tree
c. Impact assessment
• Policy analysis framework
• Conclusion
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Introduction
• CBPP is an infectious disease of cattle which has a huge
impact on the society.
• CBPP is caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies
mycoides Small Colony variant (MmmSC).
• The organism produces natural infection in cattle and water
buffaloes (Bubalu babulus), but not in wild buffaloes
(Syncerus caffer).
• CBPP is widespread in Africa and it is recognized to be
present in some countries of Asia and Europe.
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Introduction
• In Africa, it is found in an area south of the Sahara, from the Tropic
of Cancer to Tropic of Capricorn and from Atlantic to the Indian
Ocean.
• Endemic infection extends throughout the pastoral herds of much
of western, central and eastern Africa, with Angola and northern
Namibia in southern Africa.
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Introduction
Fig. 1: Clinical and pathological signs for CBPP (Niang et al. 2010; Twinamasiko,
2002)
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Economic analysis framework
Fig. 2: Partial budgeting framework
Costs
Benefits
New Costs
 Treatment of clinical cases
 Preventive annual vaccinations
 Cost of feed and management
Costs Saved
 Slaughter fee per head
 Market prices for cattle
Forgone Revenue
 Salvage value for meat, hides and
skins from culled cows
 Reduced alternative income and social
activities
New Revenue
 Extra cows
 Extra milk production
 Extra calves born
 Extra meat (weight gain)
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Economic analysis framework
Fig. 3: Estimation of output losses in herds due to CBPP
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Economic analysis framework
Fig. 4: Estimation for direct cost of control interventions for CBPP
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Results of partial budget analysis
Fig. 5: Comparison of annual costs and benefits from various CBPP
control options in a herd of 100 cows (Onono, 2013)
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Fig.6: Regression coefficients between net benefits ($) per herd/year and
the parameters under treatment strategy
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Fig.7: Regression coefficients between net benefits ($) per herd/year and
the parameters under vaccination strategy
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Economic analysis framework
Fig.8: Decision tree analysis framework
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Results of decision tree analysis (Onono, 2013)
Fig.9: Results of decision tree analysis
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Fig 10: Sensitivity analysis for EMV (US$) of net benefits
with increasing probability of CBPP outbreak (Onono,
2013)
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Economic analysis framework
Fig. 11: CBPP impact
assessment
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Fig. 12: Results on estimated impact of CBPP on
pastoralists (Onono et al. 2014)
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Fig. 13: Problem tree analysis for delivery of CBPP control
technologies (Onono, 2013)
88%
0%
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12%
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Conclusions
• Slaughter of clinical cases of CBPP is not beneficial to pastoralists
• Treatment of clinical cases, annual vaccination and a combination
of these two strategies have benefits to pastoralists
• Vaccination services against CBPP can be delivered through signed
contractual agreements between private and public veterinary
departments
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