Transcript Mortality

Mortality
I. Mortality Measures
II. Stylized Facts
III. Mortality Determinants
I.
Mortality measures
Crude death rate (CDR):
CDR = deaths/population (000s)
1950
2000
LDCs
24.1
8.8
MDCs
10.3
10.2
Source: United Nations 2001.
I.
Mortality measures (cont)
Life expectancy at birth: e0
Definition – expected years lived by group
subject to current age-specific death rates
1950
2000
LDCs
41.0
62.9
MDCs
66.2
74.9
Source: United Nations 2001.
Life Table Concepts
• Radix – initial population
• qx – probability of dying
• lx – survivors
• Lx – years lived
• Tx – cumulative years lived
• ex – expected years lived
Handout: Abridged life table for Hawaii, 1919-20
II. Stylized Facts
1. Prior to c1750 mortality rates were high and
variable. Famines and epidemics were recurring
throughout the world.
2. Mortality decline began c1750-1800 in Europe;
very gradual at first, then more rapid.
3. Mortality decline in developing countries is
much more recent – a 20th century phenomenon.
II. Stylized Facts (continued)
4. Life expectancy diverged then converged;
substantial international differences persist.
5. Age-pattern of mortality is U-shaped in
traditional societies; early declines are at young
ages: Hawaii 1920 vs US 2000
6. Mortality rates usually lower for women.
7. Epidemeological transition accompanies
mortality transition.
Early – infectious disease is major cause of death
Late – degenerative disease is major cause of death
II. Stylized Facts (continued)
8. Close relationship between income and life
expectancy but disagreement about why. Some
low-income countries have achieved high life
expectancy. Feeney and Mason 2001
9. The relationship between income and life
expectancy is shifting over time.
10. In recent years mortality conditions have
become more variable with emergence of
HIV/AIDS and economic and social disruption
III. Mortality Determinants
Existing studies emphasize four factors
1.
2.
3.
4.
Public health measures
Advances in medical knowledge and practice
Improved personal hygiene
Rising incomes and standards of living