Transcript using-statistics

Using Statistics – from Florence
Nightingale to Al Gore…
NZAMT 2007
Plan for today
Health Statistics
 Florence Nightingale
 Dynamic Graphs - Gapminder
 UN Statistics
Statistical Literacy
 Curriculum
 Data Lenses
Environmental Statistics
 Expectation / Surprise
 Al Gore
 Correlation / Causation
Task One
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Look at the graph you have been
given…
What do you think?
The Areas of the blue, red, & black wedges are each measured from the
centre as the common vertex.
The blue wedges measured from the centre of the circle represent area for
area the deaths from Preventable or Mitigable Zymotic diseases, the red
wedges measured from the centre the deaths from wounds, & the black
wedges measured from the centre the deaths from all other causes.
The black line across the red triangle in Nov. 1854 marks the boundary of
the deaths from all other causes during the month.
In October 1854, & April 1855, the black area coincides with the red, in
January & February 1855, the blue coincides with the black.
The entire areas may be compared by following the blue, the red, & the
black lines enclosing them.
Source: Nightingale, Florence. Notes on Matters Affecting the Health,
Efficiency and Hospital Administration of the British Army, 1858.
http://www.nightingaledeclaration.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=25
Florence Nightingale
• Issue – high
mortality rate due to
unsanitary conditions
• Collected data
• Invented Polar Area
Diagram
• Intro of field hospitals
"To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics,
for these are the measure of His purpose"
Further Exploration…
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http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gall
ery/milestone/sec1.html
Milestones in the History of
Thematic Cartography,
Statistical Graphics,
and Data Visualization
The new curriculum…
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Evaluate the effectiveness of different
displays in representing the findings of a
statistical investigation or probability activity
undertaken by others.
Evaluate statements made by others about
the findings of statistical investigations and
probability activities.
Evaluate statistical investigations or
probability activities undertaken by others,
including data collection methods, choice of
measures, and validity of findings.
The draft new curriculum…
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Evaluate statistical reports in the media by
relating the displays, statistics, processes
and probabilities used to the claims made.
Evaluate statistically based reports:
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Interpreting risk and relative risk
Identifying sampling and possible non-sampling
errors in surveys, including polls.
Evaluate a wide range of statistically based
reports, including surveys and polls,
experiments, and observational studies:
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Critiquing causal-relationship claims;
Interpreting margins of error
Possible lenses for viewing data
displays
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I notice / I wonder
Interest Groups
Analysis Matrix
THINKits
Expectations / Surprises
Tell a story…
Gapminder…
Tell a story…
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Use the gapminder software, select
a graph and use it to tell a story…
Downloads
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www.gapminder.org, click on
Gapminder Tools… then download
button under each graph
http://www.gapminder.org/downloa
ds/applications/
Your turn…
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Look at the graph you have been
given from the viewpoint of the
region you represent…
An alternative method…
Small
Africa
Americas
Eastern
Mediterranean
Europe
South East Asia
Western Pacific
Medium
Large
Expectations / Surprises
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Challenging preconceived ideas
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Exploring Centre and Spread
UN Stats
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I notice…
I wonder…
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Thinking matrix
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Link
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http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat
2007_10highlights.pdf
WHO – WHO Statistical Information
System
http://www.who.int/whosis/en/
Life expectancy at birth (years)
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Rationale for use
Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality level
of a population. It summarizes the mortality pattern that
prevails across all age groups - children and adolescents,
adults and the elderly.
Definition
Average number of years that a newborn is expected to
live if current mortality rates continue to apply.
Associated terms
A life table presents a set of tabulations that describe the
probability of dying, the death rate and the number of
survivors for each age or age group. Accordingly, life
expectancy at birth is an output of a life table.
Data sources
Vital registration, census and surveys: Age-specific
mortality rates required to compute life expectancy at
birth.
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Methods of estimation
WHO has developed a model life table based on about 1800 life
tables from vital registration judged to be of good quality.
For countries with vital registration, the level of completeness
of recorded mortality data in the population is assessed and
mortality rates are adjusted accordingly.
Where vital registration data for 2003 were available, these
were used directly to construct the life table. For countries
where the information system provided a time series of annual
life tables, parameters from the life table were projected using
a weighted regression model, giving more weight to recent
years. Projected values of the two life table parameters were
then applied to the modified logit life table model, where the
most recent national data provided an age pattern, to predict
the full life table for 2003.
In case of inadequate sources of age-specific mortality rates,
the life table is derived from estimated under-5 mortality rates
and adult mortality rates that are applied to a global standard
(defined as the average of all the 1800 life tables) using a
modified logit model.
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Disaggregation
By sex, location (urban/rural, major
regions/provinces).
Comments
The lack of complete and reliable mortality data,
especially for low income countries and particularly
on mortality among adults and the elderly,
necessitates the application of modelling (based on
data from other populations) to estimate life
expectancy. WHO uses a standard method as
explained above to estimate and project life tables
for all Member States using comparable data. This
may lead to minor differences compared with official
life tables prepared by Member States.
A look at environmental data…
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Where would you like to live
Environmental
Statistics
Al Gore
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An inconvenient truth
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http://www.climatecrisis.net/
Some graphs
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Compare and Contrast it
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An inconvenient truth
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled in the last 30 years.
2
Malaria has spread to higher altitudes in places like the Colombian Andes, 7,000 feet above sea
level.3
The flow of ice from glaciers in Greenland has more than doubled over the past decade.4
At least 279 species of plants and animals are already responding to global warming, moving
closer to the poles.5
Deaths from global warming will double in just 25 years -- to 300,000 people a year.6
Global sea levels could rise by more than 20 feet with the loss of shelf ice in Greenland and
Antarctica, devastating coastal areas worldwide.7
Heat waves will be more frequent and more intense.
Droughts and wildfires will occur more often.
The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050.8
More than a million species worldwide could be driven to extinction by 2050.9
Correlation / Causation
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Power point
Statistical Thinking
A statistician is
a person who
stands in a
bucket of ice
water, sticks
their head in an
oven and says
"On average, I
feel fine."
K.Dunnigan
A
mathematician
is a blindfolded
person in a dark
room looking
for a black cat
which isn't
there.
Charles Darwin