Transcript Заголовок слайда отсутствует

THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF
BIOTERRORISM THREAT
Episode I. Introduction
Konstantyn Atoyev
Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Konstantyn Atoyev was born in
Tbilisi (Georgia, USSR).
Graduated from Tbilisi State
University ( Department of
Physics). Ph.D. in biocybernetics
(1984). Senior member of
Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics
of Ukrainian National Academy of
Sciences ( Kiev, Ukraine)
The research interests can be broadly defined as
optimization, modeling and risk analysis of
epidemiological, ecological, biological and social
systems. Author of more than 100 scientific articles
and works. Member of SRA.
«These are challenges all nations
face, and no nation can meet alone.
And so I say again, let us meet them
together. We must not give up. We
must keep on fighting».
Bill Clynton Remarks to the People of
Ukraine in Kiev, June 5, 2000
INTRODUCTION
The events of September, 11 has obviously demonstrated the vulnerability
of antiterrorist defense system that is
currently in piece.
The development of biotechnologies
in the nineties has simplified the
process of biological agent
production to a great extent. It is
alarming, as genetically engineered
organism might resistant to all known
vaccines and drugs.
It is highly contagious, it will be
able to harm the great amount of
people, like the agents of traditional
infectious diseases (anthrax, cholera,
viral hemorrhagic fevers etc.).
It also makes these agents accessible
to various criminal and terrorist
groups [1- 4].
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
BACTERIA VIRUSES TOXINES
SMALLPOX RICIN
BOTULISM
VIRAL
PLAGUE
STAPHYHEMORTULAREMIA RAHAGIC LOCCUS
ENTEROFEVERS
CHOLERA
TOXIN B
EQUINE
GLANDERS
MYCOTO ENCEPBRUCELLOSIS HALITIS
XINIS
ANTHRAX
Anthrax as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF
version (JAMA, May 12, 1999)
Smallpox as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF
version (JAMA, June 9, 1999)
Plague as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF
version (JAMA, May 3, 2000)
Botulinum Toxin as a Biological Weapon-Adobe
PDF version (JAMA, February 28, 2001)
Tularemia as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF
version(JAMA, June 6, 2001)
www.slu.edu/colleges/sph/bioterrorism/key_ref.htm
Therapeutics
Antibiotics
Germicides
Other agents
Increasing of
host’s ability
to resist
infections
Prevention
of infectious
diseases
Vaccine
Antitoxin
R&D
Preverntion
from microbial invasions
Host
Parasite
BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS
Environment
Water treatment,
air filtration, proper waste disposal
Public health
measures
Main Scenarios of Biological Attacks
Likely
Food contamination
or poisoning
1
Hundreds
CASUALTIES
Low Probability
Suspending in a wet
or dry formulation
2
Thousands
1 Utilization of foodborne and waterborne pathogens or toxic chemicals
Main reasons increasing the
probability of this scenario
Unprotected
and unmonitored food
displays
Increasing the number of persons with a
modicum of training
in microbiology
2 Airborne attacks
The reasons of low probability of this
scenario are that is technically difficult
to formulate pathogens and
toxins for
airborne
dispersal
to ensure proper meteorological conditions for effective aerosol
dispersal.
to operate dispersal mechanisms
successfully
When pathogens loose their virulence?
Transportantion
Clumping
Storage
Spraying
Environmental stress
Terrorism and Byotechnologies
DNA TECHNOLOGIES
Combine certain features of different viruses, including their recovering from corps.
Sitederected mutagenesis for more difficult
identification by immune system.
PROTEIN ENGINEERING
Alteration of toxin’s chemical strructures
Toxin molecule stabilization.
Main Defencive Difficulties
Luck of fundamental information about
infectivity, pathogenesis, hostparasite
relationships.
Imposibility to modify phenomena
controlled by multiple genes.
The problem of pleomorphic effects.
The analysis of the process of biological weapons spreading came [5] to
the conclusion about possible applications of advanced biotechnologies
for terrorist or criminal purposes in the
next five years. This analysis has been
done in 1999 [6].
However, as always...
«A lie gets halfway around the
world before the truth has a
chance to get its pants on».
Sir Winston Churchill
One of numerous lessons of September 11
was the demonstration of problem that
previously was not properly addresses
and interpreted.
It is the problem of psychological
consequences of bioterrorist attacks [7].
Despite the fact that the great part of
spreading powder was not lethal or
contagious, in itself its receiving became a strong stressor, that influenced
intensive psychological pressure in the
population. As a result of this pressure,
the hysteria in media space and in the
general public has arise. However...
«Panics in some cases, have their
uses; they produce as much good as
hurt. Their duration is always short;
the mind soon grows through them,
and acquires a firmer habit than
before».
Thomas Paine, 1776
So, it has been understood that
combined utilization of modern
telecommunication technologies and
biological weapon leads to a strong
multiple effect, that can cause essential
damage not only to the health of
population, but also to the economical
power of the country.
In the past we could depend on possibilities
of the intelligence to find the production of
great amount of biological weapons.
However, the events after
September 11 connected with
anthrax attack, have demonstrated
that even not large volume of
biological agents may be useful for
bioterrorist aims of producing
chaos.
So, we are not now sure that production
of so small amount of biological weapon
will be noticed. It is clear, that whole
system of antiterrorist defense requires
the essential revision and newer systems
are needed, systems that are better
adapted to the modern trend of
bioterrorism.
It is neccasary to create the Global
System of Epidemiological Defense
that covers all space of our Planet.