Transcript flu_1_schloss

Learning Goals
• Appreciate that events on the other side of
the world affect us
Learning Goals
• Appreciate that events on the other side of
the world affect us
• Be able to discuss epidemiological issues
using basic terms
Learning Goals
• Appreciate that events on the other side of
the world affect us
• Be able to discuss epidemiological issues
using basic terms
• Describe the properties that affect the
spread of an infectious disease
Learning Goals
• Appreciate that events on the other side of
the world affect us
• Be able to discuss epidemiological issues
using basic terms
• Describe the properties that affect the
spread of an infectious disease
• Motivate future discussions of how our
bodies interact with infectious microbes
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1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
• Had little to do with Spain
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
• Had little to do with Spain
• Soldiers coming home from WWI were
thought to spread the virus
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
• Had little to do with Spain
• Soldiers coming home from WWI were
thought to spread the virus
• At least 40 million people died worldwide
and about 500,000 people died in the US
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
• Had little to do with Spain
• Soldiers coming home from WWI were
thought to spread the virus
• At least 40 million people died worldwide
and about 500,000 people died in the US
• 20-40% of the world population became ill
because of the pandemic
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
• Had little to do with Spain
• Soldiers coming home from WWI were
thought to spread the virus
• At least 40 million people died worldwide
and about 500,000 people died in the US
• 20-40% of the world population became ill
because of the pandemic
• Because they held national quarantines,
Western Samoa and Iceland avoided the
1918 flu
1957 Asian Flu Pandemic
• The global death toll was estimated to be
around 2 million with about 70,000 deaths
in the United States
1957 Asian Flu Pandemic
• The global death toll was estimated to be
around 2 million with about 70,000 deaths
in the United States
• In US, students and young adults were at
the greatest risk because they were
commonly in crowded situations, which
helped to spread the disease
1957 Asian Flu Pandemic
• The global death toll was estimated to be
around 2 million with about 70,000 deaths
in the United States
• In US, students and young adults were at
the greatest risk because they were
commonly in crowded situations, which
helped to spread the disease
• Vaccine production started 3 months after
initial Asian outbreaks
1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic
• Resulted in nearly 34,000 deaths in the
United States and killed as many as 1
million people worldwide
1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic
• Resulted in nearly 34,000 deaths in the
United States and killed as many as 1
million people worldwide
• Vaccine became available one month after
the initial outbreak
Avian Influenza – “the Bird Flu”
• 160 humans infected, ~80 dead, millions
of birds dead, only transmissible from
birds to humans so far
Avian Influenza – “the Bird Flu”
• 160 humans infected, ~80 dead, millions
of birds dead, only transmissible from
birds to humans so far
• Spreading from East Asia to Europe,
recently found in Italy
Avian Influenza – “the Bird Flu”
• 160 humans infected, ~80 dead, millions
of birds dead, only transmissible from
birds to humans so far
• Spreading from East Asia to Europe,
recently found in Italy
• The bird flu will likely evolve the ability to
pass from human to human. If this
happens, its 50% mortality rate could kill
millions of people
What if…?
• If either the 1918 flu or 1957/1968 flu hit
the US today, ~90 million (of 295 million)
people would be infected
What if…?
• If either the 1918 flu or 1957/1968 flu hit
the US today, ~90 million (of 295 million)
people would be infected
• The 1918 pandemic would kill 1.9 million
people and cost $203 billion
What if…?
• If either the 1918 flu or 1957/1968 flu hit
the US today, then ~90 million (of 295
million) people would be infected
• The 1918 pandemic would kill 1.9 million
people and cost $203 billion
• The 1957 or 1968 pandemics would kill
200, 000 and cost $87 billion
• If it were the bird flu, with 50% virulence
rate…