Transcript Flu pandemic ppt - Bath GP Training

Flu + Avian Flu
Panic or Pandemic
Patrick Nearney
Swindon/Bath
GP Registrar
DRC 23/11/05
AIMS
Distinguish fact from fiction
Background – science
Impact
Management- organisational
- clinical
Fact or Fiction?
A) No turkey for Christmas!
B) I’ll have to cancel my holiday to
Turkey now
C) 5-150 million worldwide deaths
may occur from an avian flu
pandemic
Fact or Fiction?
A) I’ll be alright- flu just kills old
people!
B) I’ll be alright I’ve had the flu
vaccine!
C) I’ll be alright my Tamiflu I got
from e- bay will save me!
Timescale of a flu pandemic
Possible impact flu pandemic
on General Practice
UK mortality >50,000 c.f 12,000
currently
Over 15 week wave small GP
practice (3800 patients) can expect
- 942 cases (>200 per week at peak)
- 4 excess deaths
- 100 extra consultations
Challenges to Managing Flu
Pandemic General Practice
Challenges to Managing Flu
Pandemic General Practice
Organisation
Staff illness
Worried well
Drug distribution
Clinical Management
Diagnosis
Treatment
Prophylactic antibiotics
Admission
Summary
We don’t know the full impact of a
flu pandemic on UK
Despite 450 pages of documents
there is a lot that will have to be
decided at the time
Take heart the nation
pulled together in World
War II !