Transcript Early Signs of Decline

Cyd Szymanski
Eliza Smith
Caitlin Shea
November 5, 2008
Professor Sutton
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In this chapter, Lester Brown
discusses many signs that show a
population moving towards a
collapse:
Income Disparity
Gaps in Education and Healthcare
Desertification
Population Growth
Conflict over Land and Water
And, as infrastructure collapses –
Failing States
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862 million are undernourished.
1.6 billion are over nourished and
overweight.
What does this say about the world
today??
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Infectious Disease
• Malaria- 1 million deaths annually, 89%
in Africa
• Tuberculosis
• Dysentery
• Measles
• Respiratory Infections
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AIDS- 86 million infected, 40 million
deaths, 18 million orphans by 2010
• Now a development problem,
undermining food, security, educational
system, foreign investment, leading to
failing states and social breakdown.
• http://www.girleffect.org/
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Cardiovascular Disease
Obesity
High fat diets
Smoking
Exercise deprivation
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1 billion live in countries with stable
populations
1 billion live in countries with
doubling populations by 2050
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72 million don’t go to school at all
781 million adults are illiterate
• Illiterate women have larger families
• Each year of schooling raises earning
power 10-20%
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1.1 billion people lack safe water
• Waterborne diseases claim more than 3
million lives/year
• Infant mortality is 12 times higher in
poorest countries than affluent (95/1000
vs. 8/1000 live births)
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The Nile – Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia
use the water
• Egypt growing from 75 million to 121
million in 2050
• Sudan- from 39 million to 73 million in
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200 human diseases linked to
pollutants
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37 kinds of cancer
Heart disease
Kidney disease
High blood pressure
Diabetes
Bronchitis
Sperm damage
Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s
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In England and Wales over an 18-year period,
death rates more than tripled for men and
nearly doubled for women
Long-term, low-level exposure to pesticides
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World Health Organization (WHO)
estimates 3 million deaths worldwide
each year from pollutants
• Three times the number of traffic
fatalities
• In US, air pollution claims 70,000 lives
compared with 45,000 traffic deaths
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Running out of landfill room near
cities
Running out of natural resources:
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17
19
25
54
68
years
years
years
years
years
of
of
of
of
of
reserves
reserves
reserves
reserves
reserves
for
for
for
for
for
lead
tin
copper
iron ore
bauxite
Cost of hauling garbage: 600
tractor trailers/day in NYC
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Competition for Land and Water leads
to unmanageable social tensions
• From 1950 to 2007, grainland per person
has been cut in half, from 0.23 hectares to
0.10 hectares, shrinking below that needed
for survival
Population and Resource Conflict
continued…
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Desertification – The Sahel
• Sudan had a fourfold pop. increase from
1950-2007
• Cattle pop. had a sixfold increase/sheep &
goats, eightfold
• 2 million dead, 4 million displaced
 (1) Darfur- camel herders vs. subsistence
farmers 200,000 killed/250,000 dead from
hunger/disease
 Competition for land is amplified by
religious differences
 Environmental refugees migrate due to
desertification
Rwanda
• Population in 1950 was 2.4 million,
Population in 1993 tripled to 7.5 million
making it the most densely populated
country in Africa
• Firewood and fuel for cooking deforested
and deteriorated the soil: land fertility
declined and hunger set in
• Death of president led to an organized
attack over land by Hutus, leading to ~
800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu deaths in
100 days
Others on the same path
• Tanzania: 40 million in 2007 increasing to
85 million by 2050
• Eritrea: 5 million in 2007 increasing to 11
million by 2050
• Dem. Rep. of Congo: 63 million to 187
million by 2050
• India: 1.2 billion in 2007 to 1.7 billion by
2050
“…the relationship between
population and natural systems is a
national security issue, one than can
spawn conflicts along geographic,
tribal, ethnic, or religious lines.” (p
120)
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Foreign Policy rank according to
“vulnerability to violent internal conflict
and societal deterioration” based on 12
social, economic, political and military
indicators. Key are:
• Uneven development – small segment
accumulates wealth while most suffer a decline
• Loss of governmental legitimacy- shifting
allegiances to warlords, tribal chieftains or
religious leaders
• Demographic pressure/fatigue- unable to cope
with steady shrinkage in cropland and fresh
water per person or to build schools fast
enough
• Lack of foreign investment
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“…one of the key indicators of political
instability in a society is the number of
unemployed young men, a number that
is high in countries at the top of the
Foreign Policy list.” (125)
Failing states are a source of terrorist,
drugs, weapons, and refugees – Iraq is
#2 on failing states, #1 in terrorist
training
Failing states cannot:
• collect taxes and pay debts
• control international terrorism
• protect endangered species
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Failing states cannot:
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collect taxes and pay debts
control international terrorism
protect endangered species
control the spread of infectious disease,
such as SARS, Avian Influenza, polio
Stressors take many forms:
 Widening income gap between rich
and poor
 Widening gap in education and
healthcare
 Refugees swell as land turns to
desert and wells go dry, which lead
to
 Societies in conflict over resources,
which lead to
 Failing states, which lead to
terrorism.
This problem
belongs to all
of us.