Transcript Lux Research Consulting

Listen Up: Devising
Commercialization Strategies
for Next-generation Material
Platforms
Ross Kozarsky
Senior Analyst
Lux Executive Summit Asia
October 21, 2015
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
Will you listen this time?
2
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
Will you listen this time?
3
Previous generations of materials primarily served a
single function
3
Protective/aesthetic coatings
2
Specific
strength
(GPa/g/mL)
1
0
Steel
Aluminum
Carbon fiber
4
Today’s advanced materials are expected to be
multifunctional
Structural 3D printed components
with embedded sensors measure
strain, force, pressure, or
temperature within plastic parts
Functional coatings offer valueadded functionalities like
hydrophobicity and anti-microbial
beyond protection
5
Promise (and hype) of multifunctional materials
epitomized by “wunderkind” carbon nanomaterials
Carbon nanotubes (CNTs)
Graphene
6
MWNTs developmental past offers case study in
challenges of advanced material commercialization
Rocky history of MWNTs shows that a research and patent boom along with
impressive technical performance is far from guarantee of commercial success
Too many players simultaneously scaled manufacturing to meet uncertain
demand, resulting in a dramatic oversupply
3500
3000
2500
2000
Forecast demand
(tons)
1500
Other
Li-ion battery electrodes
Conductive polymer composites
Structural polymer composites
1000
Production capacity
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
7
Did graphene developers learn from the MWNT
lesson?
Lux has long encouraged participants in the graphene space to view their MWNT
predecessors as a lesson to be mindful of – a case study with trials and tribulations
on display to be learned from rather than repeated
See our 2012 report “Is Graphene the Next Silicon...Or Just the Next Carbon Nanotube?”
Total graphene market will reach $349 million in 2025
8
GNP demand has yet to exceed 15% of the current
supply
This metric does not even include significant capacity expansions still in progress
700
600
500
400
GNP capacity
(tons/yr) 300
200
100
0
Americas
2012 capacity
Asia
EMEA
2015 capacity
9
Most GNP developers are long shots with unproven
technical value and business execution
Lack of concrete performance metrics demonstrating true value proposition in
most segments
Overall, valuable lessons have been ignored and GNP developers are paying the
price (see our 2015 report “Case Closed: Graphene is the Next Carbon Nanotube”)
10
While it’s too late to save graphene, let’s turn our
attention to the next wave of materials innovation:
Smart materials change their properties in response to environmental stimuli and
provide dynamic rather than static functionality
We need to do a better job of
learning from the past to
accelerate
successful
Metamaterials derive unusual mechanical, electromagnetic, or acoustic properties
from a carefully
controlled microstructure or nanostructure
commercialization
of next
generation advanced materials
11
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
Will you listen this time?
12
Platform technology materials push model has
pitfalls
Part of the allure of platform technologies is the myriad potential applications, but
our data shows the challenges associated with such a materials-push model
Revenue/employee
Profitability
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
1
2
3
4
5
Target applications
6+
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
2
3
4
Target applications
5
6+
*Data collected from Lux Research Member Site Advanced Materials 2015 Company profiles (n = 80)
But relying solely on a market pull model also isn’t the answer, as avoiding
technology push altogether would miss out on really big opportunities
With advances in materials becoming more functional and smart, the number of
potential applications will only get bigger
13
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
1) Partnership vs. application focus
Will you listen this time?
14
Top emerging developers consistently stand out on
strength of partnerships – graphene
15
Top emerging developers consistently stand out on
strength of partnerships – hydrophobic coatings
5
5
High-potential
P2i
HZO
Lin Group
Picodeon
Clearbridge
Technologies
NBD Nano ISurTec
Dominant
Lux Take
Strong Positive
Strong Positive
4.0 - 4.9
Positive
Positive
3.0 - 3.9
Wait and See
Wait and See
2.0 - 2.9
Caution
Caution
1.0 - 1.9
Strong Caution
Strong Caution
5.0
Diamon-Fusion
International
4.0tripleO
- 4.9
3
Dominant
Maturity
5.0 HeiQ Materials
Technical Value
Technical Value
Technical Value
Nanokote
3
Dominant
High-Potential
Nanogate
Technologies
Lotus Leaf Coatings
Surfactis
5
High-Potential
Nanovere
Applied Thin Films
Aculon
3
Enki Technology
3.0 - 3.9
NeverWet
2.0 - 2.9
C-Voltaics
NEI Corporation
Nelum Sciences
Long-shot
1
1
GXC Coatings
CG2 NanoCoatings
Nanopool
Long-shot
1
1.0 - 1.9
Long-shot
Undistinguished
1
31
Business Execution
1
53
Business Execution
Undistinguished
5
3
Undistinguished 5
Business Execution
16
Top emerging developers consistently stand out on
strength of partnerships – advanced ceramics
5
5
5
High-Potential
High-potential
Dominant
High-Potential
Dominant
Free Form Fibers
3
HydroAlumina
Dominant
Lux Take
Strong Positive
Strong Positive
4.0 - 4.9
Positive
Positive
3.0 - 3.9
Wait and See
Wait and See
2.0 - 2.9
Caution
Caution
Strong Caution
Strong Caution
5.0
Diamorph
Technical Value
Advanced Ceramic
Fibers
Covaron
5.0
Ceralink
Technical Value
Technical Value
Maturity
4.0 - 4.9
3
3
Kion
Defense
3.0
- 3.9
Technologies
Nuenz
Lancer LP
Carbon Composites2.0 - 2.9
Starfire Systems
Matech
ANF Technology
Xi'an Golden Mountain
Ceramic Composites
Long-shot
1
1
Long-shot
1
1.0 - 1.9
Undistinguished
Long-shot
1.0 - 1.9
1
31
Business Execution
1
53
Business Execution
Undistinguished
5
3
Business Execution
Undistinguished 5
17
LiquiGlide edges SLIPs in liquid-infused coatings due
to stronger application focus
These technologies utilize a porous or textured surface to store liquid – trapped
liquid layer creates a low-friction surface that causes other liquids to flow off
Lux Take:
Positive
Total patent applications: 21
Three granted
Lux Take:
Wait and see
Total patent applications: 25
None granted
20%
38%
38%
32%
24%
Processes
Surfaces
48%
Applications
Processes
Surfaces
Applications
LiquiGlide has established downstream partnerships with packaging companies
Elmers and Orkla, while SLIPS has formed an upstream partnership with BASF but
is unproven in applications
18
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
1) Partnership vs. application focus
2) Product push vs. material push
Will you listen this time?
19
Graphene film developers aim to spur near-term
revenue growth by pivoting from TCFs to sensors
Most hype and attention on graphene application
development initially focused on TCF segments like
displays and touchscreens
Commercialization progress has been slow due to
high cost and deposition area limitation challenges
Pivot among leading developers to sensors should
reduce product integration complexities and
increase revenue potential over pure play materials
business model
Graphene Frontiers and Bluestone Global
Tech developing FETs for sensor applications
Graphenea working on sensor applications
with Nokia and Infineon
20
Graphene Frontiers
Graphene films for sensor applications
Lux Take:
Wait and See
Technology and differentiators:
Using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process to grow
graphene films at atmospheric pressure
Can fabricate 4,000 field-effect transistors (FETs) with 10
µm channel width on a six-inch wafer; intends to
increase FET density moving forward
Strategy and markets:
Working on functionalizing both graphene surface and
FET channels for biosensor and chemical sensor
applications
Major strategy shift over past year from graphene film
material sales to sensor application development
Lux take:
Lab-scale production costs one of the lowest among
graphene film developers; value proposition of sensor
application remains unclear
Decision to position itself as a sensor developer increases
revenue and margin potential over pure-play materials
business model, though technical and medical industry
challenges will mean commercial revenues are far off
Summary information
Founded in
2010
Location
Philadelphia, PA
Employees
5
Key partners
and backers
None on the record
Key metrics
Capacity
70-120 m2/yr
Cost
$30,000$50,000/m2
21
Mechanical metamaterial start-ups position
themselves as solution providers
High-friction adhesives
Lux Take:
Positive
Employees
Revenue
7
$1.4M
Antimicrobial patterned films
Lux Take:
Wait and
See
Employees
Revenue
10
$2M
Patterned surfaces for
friction reduction
Lux Take:
Positive
Employees
Revenue
6
$2.5M
Rather than relying on (and pushing) the hype of metamaterials as a material class,
these start-ups have achieved initial commercialization successes by developing
products that provide solutions
22
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
1) Partnership vs. application focus
2) Product push vs. material push
3) Open innovation model
Will you listen this time?
23
Today’s leading 3D printer companies seek to
monopolize materials
Printer/cartridge business model
hinders 3D printable materials
development and slows growth
of the entire space
400
Sales
(US$ 200
millions)
0
Printers
3D Systems
3D Systems stock price
Services and materials
EOS
Stratasys
Stratasys stock price
24
Arcam
Electron beam melting 3D printers
Developed electron beam melting, a 3D printing process
which builds up metal parts layer by layer by selectively
melting a powder using an electron beam
Employees
Revenue (2014)
228
$41.3M
Open materials model facilitates adoption in production
applications
Business model has helped accelerate Arcam’s traction in
production applications in medical and aerospace
25
Autodesk playing the long game with its
open innovation approach to 3D printing
Autodesk’s “Spark” initiative – a 3D printing
collaboration with partners such as Matterfab,
Voxel8, Local Motors, and HP – has the goal of
improving 3D printers, materials, and services
Autodesk has supplied the program with a $100M
investment fund
Invested $10M in start-up Carbon 3D
In April 2015 Autodesk, which develops the “Ember”
desktop 3D printer, released the formula to its
photopolymer resin
In return for this small investment of materials IP,
Autodesk stands to reap significant dividends since
accelerating adoption of 3D printers will increase the
use of design software, Autodesk’s core offering
26
Agenda
Commercializing multifunctional materials: How did we do?
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
Will you listen this time?
27
Don't listen at your own peril...you could be the
next Bayer MaterialScience in MWNTs
BMS (now Covestro) is a leading material company
and previously one of the most reputable sources
for MWNTs
However, MWNT market oversupply made large
sources of demand hard to find
But if you learn to successfully
BMS was
forced tothese
focus on “long-shot”
projects significant
apply
strategies,
like building the first solar-powered aircraft to
circumnavigate
globe
newthematerials
revenue streams
Prospects and timing for profitability of MWNT unit
long unclear…Bayer shut
down its CNT
in
could
beactivities
opened
May 2013
“…the potential areas of application that once
seemed promising from a technical standpoint
are currently either very fragmented or have
few overlaps with the company's core products
and their application spectrum.” (BMS CEO)
28
3D printing can reinvigorate “old” materials
3D printing can enable new material combinations and create novel microstructures
Conventional photopolymers  artificial bone
Porous metals
Functionally graded materials
29
Combining metamaterials with advanced traditional
material solutions will enable truly novel products
Performance
Metamaterials supplement
traditional material solutions and
enable truly novel products
Metamaterials compete
with existing material
solutions as prices fall
Medium-term penetration
of cheaper metamaterials
Price/Value
Metamaterials see
limited adoption
30
Dynamic functionality can enable a single material
to replace a multimaterial part or system of parts
Smart material class
Stimulus
Response
31
Conclusions
Multifunctional materials have great promise, but technology commercialization
pitfalls have been prevalent
Next wave of materials advances in smart materials and metamaterials will further
raise the level of innovation potential, but also intensify the challenges in bringing
such materials to market
Strategies for success in next generation material platforms
1) Partnership vs. application focus
2) Product push vs. material push
3) Open innovation model
32
Thank you
Ross Kozarsky
Senior Analyst
[email protected]
+1 857 284 5687
Lux Research Asia-Pacific PTE, LTD · www.luxresearchinc.com 75 Tanjong Pagar Road, #03-01 Singapore 088496 +65-6592-6978
Kanda Park Plaza, 5th Floor · 2-2-2 Kaji-chou · Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo 101-0044, Japan +81-3-4520-5490