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Future of Computers Moore’s Law ANTIKYTHERA MECHANISM Charles Babbage Difference Engine by Charles Babbage (1822) Eniac - 1946 1950 - 1970’s Transistors Gordon Moore, Co Founder Intel “Moore’s Law” Moore’s Law • Gordon Moore, Co Founder of Intel Corporation, noted in the 1960’s that computer processing power doubles every 18 months. • This trend has continued for the last 40 Years!!! • Scientists believe that it will continue at that rate for several more decades to come AT LEAST 20Yrs, BUT MORE LIKELY FOR 30Yrs into the future!!! Intel 4004 first widespread available microprocessor (2,300) switches 1970’s The Power of Doubling has EXPONENTIAL Growth • So, What does exponential mean? • It means that the further in time you go the faster and the faster it accelerates. So, What!!!! You say I’m Bored Mr. G • Well, Let me explain. Watch This!!!! So What, Mr. G 50’s Computer Would Take Up an Entire Room SUCH AS A GYMNASIUM!!! Year #0 1960 1 1 Year 6 Months 1960’s 2 3 Years 1960’s 4 4 Years 6 Months 1960’s 8 6 Years 1960’s 16 7 Years 6 Months 1960’s 32 9 Years 1960’s 64 10 Years 6 Months 1970 on the MOON 128 12 Years 1970’s 256 13 Years 6 Months 1970’s 512 15 Years 1970’s 1,024 16 Years 6 Months 1970’s 2,048 18 Years 1970’s 4,096 19 Years 6 Months 1980 8,192 21 Years 1980’s 16,192 22 Years 6 Months 1980’s 32,768 24 Years 1980’s 65,536 25 Years 6 Months 1980’s 131,072 27 Years 1980’s 262,144 28 Years 6 Months 1980’s 524,288 30 Years 1990 1,048,576 31 Years 6 Months 1990’s 2,097,152 33 Years 1990’s 4,194,304 34 Years 6 Months 1990’s 8,388,608 36 Years 1990’s 16,777,216 37 Years 6 Months 1990’s 33,554,432 39 Years 1990’s 67,108,864 40 Years 6 Months 2000 134,217,728 42 Years 2000’s 268,436,456 43 Years 6 Months 2000’s 536,870,912 45 Years 2000’s 1,073,741,824 46 Years 6 Months 2000’s 2,147,483,648 48 Years Today!!! 4,294,967,296 This Is Were We Are Today • A Fast and Expensive Computer $5,000 To $10,000 computer of today might have up to 20 Gigahertz(GHz) • My Laptop is a 5.2GHz • The Computers in Front of You are 5.2GHz The Compute rs in This Room Have the Brain Power of a Frog! Yeh, OK computers have gotten faster. What’s that got to due with Me? 1 Year 6 Months 8,589,934,592 3 Years 17,179,869,184 4 Year 6 Months 34,359,738,368 6 Years 68,719,476,736 7 Years 6 Months 137,438,953,472 9 Years 274,877,906,944 10 Years 6 Months 549,755,813,888 12 Years 1,099,511,627,776 13 Years 6 Months 2,199,023,255,552 15 Years 4,398,046,511,104 16 Years 6 Months 8,796,093,022,208 18 Years 17,592,186,044,416 19 Years 6 Months 35,184,372,088,832 19 Years 6 Months 35,184,372,088,832 21 Years 70,368,744,177,664 22 Years 6 Months 140,737,488,355,328 24 Years 281,474,976,710,656 25 Years 6 Months 562,949,953,421,312 27 Years 1,125,899,906,842,624 28 Years 6 Months 2,251,799,813,685,248 30 Years 4,503,599,627,370,496 •Today = 5GHz and has the Brain Power of a Frog. •In 30 Years = 4,503,599GHz. •Which means it would take 2 million of the computers in front of you to equal one PC 30 years from now. •It should be 30 years before the doubling slows. •That’s two stacks from here to the Moon and then you would have to start a third stack. •How smart might that computer that powerful be? That’s Way More Brain Power Than a Human Has!!! • Actually that’s more brain power than all humans on this planet added together!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! • Would we consider it to be alive or just a machine? • Might it have feelings, and how might it feel about us? So What Mr. Gravitt • So what!!! It means that today's Multi Billion Dollar Supercomputer will someday be in a watch that your kids could buy at the dollar store. • You need to realize we have the robots today, but they do not have the brains to be really useful. Dropping Costs • This Computer Chip only cost around $0.60 to manufacture • The costs of new chips comes from the research and development of newer and faster chips • You can purchase new older model chips cheaply Oh Really, So What • So, for instance one day Robotics might very well resemble something from a Sci-Fi Movie. Are you going to be ready to compete for a job against me?