Transcript Percent childless

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1
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session
on Demographic Projections
Trend reversal in Childlessness
in Sweden
Lisbon 28-30 April 2010
Lotta Persson
Forecast Institute
Statistics Sweden
The model for fertility
assumptions
Assumptions for 7 groups
Group
Swedish-born
% 2009
77
Foreign-born
Nordic countries
EU-countries
remaining Europe
countries with high HDI
countries with medium HDI
countries with low HDI
2
3
4
2
10
2
2
Different methods
• Swedish-born: assumptions on the
probability to give birth to the first,
second, third or fourth (or more) child
for each age and cohort
• Foreign-born: The age specific fertility
is projected forward
3
Method for Swedish-born
First birth incidence rates for cohorts born 1970, 1975 and 1980
0.09
0.08
1975
0.07
0.06
1980
1970
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
4
Method for Swedish-born
Fertility for cohort born in 1975
Observed
0.16
Predicted
Fourth child
0.14
Third child
0.12
Second
0.10
child
0.08
0.06
0.04
First child
0.02
0.00
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
Development of childlessness
Percent childless
18
16
17 %
15 %
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Cohort
6
Development of childlessness
Swedish born
Percent childless
50
45
40
35
1977
1975
30
1970
1965
25
20
15
1960
10
5
0
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
Age
7
Rapid educational expansion
Educational level at age 30
Mean age at first birth
100
30
Tertiary education > 3
29
80
Tertiary education < 3
28
27
60
26
40
Secondary
25
24
20
23
0
1960
Primary
1965
1970
1975
Cohort
22
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
8
Educational level and childlessness
Primary school
60
Secondary school
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
1970
10
10
0
0
1975
30
60
35
40
Tertiary school<3 years
45
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
35
40
1965
30
50
30
1960
45
30
35
40
Tertiary school>3 years
35
40
45
45
1977
9
Possible reasons for the trend
reversal in childlessness
• Increased possibility to get infecundity
treatments (IVF treatments increased
from 3 000 in 1991 to 12 000 in 2007).
• Survey in 2009 shows that it is common
to have used aid to have children (40
percent of those who had their child
after age 34 had used aid).
10
Aid to have children – more common
among women with higher education
Share of women who used aid to have children by educational level
and age at birth of first child
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-27 years
28-33 years
34-40 years
Primary
school
Secondary
school
Tertiary
education
11
More positive attitude towards having
children among women with higher education
Share of childless cohabiting or married women who answer “yes” to
the question: Do you think you will have children in the future?” by
age and educational level
and age at birth of first child
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-27 years
28-33 years
34-40 years
Primary
school
Secondary
school
Tertiary
education
12
Future development?
Percent childless
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Cohort
13
Thank you for listening!
How many of them
will be childless in
the future?
14