Transcript Economic Growth and Sustainability: Are They Mutually Exclusive?

Yes! There are Limits
Synopsis of Economic Growth
and Sustainability:
Systems Thinking for a Complex World
Elsevier SciTech Connect
December 2, 2016
Karen Higgins, Ph.D.
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© Karen Higgins 2016
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The Future is Personal
GOAL
Life, Happiness and Well-Being
for present and future generations
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© Karen Higgins 2016
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Global Trends
Economy & population growth
Increased energy consumption & pollution
Economic, environmental and social
challenges
Threat to sustainability of life and lifestyles
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Population, Economy, Fossil Fuel
Consumption, CO2, Garbage
Adapted from Higgins (2015). Economic Growth and Sustainability Figure 6.14. Oxford: Elsevier.
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GROWTH, GROWTH, GROWTH
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Are There Limits?
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Yangtze River, China
Citarum River, Indonesia
Los Angeles
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Bejing
Almaden Reservoir, CA
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Challenges
• Live within Earth’s limits
• De-emphasize material consumption
• Transition to sustainable living
– Economic downturns
– Aging population
• Resolve dilemmas
Economy
Society
– Self vs. community
– Short-term vs. long-term
A MATTER OF BALANCE
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Environment
6
Systems Thinking
• Individual elements
interact as part of a
whole system
• Relationships &
dynamics
• Feedback loops & lags
• Leverage areas
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Current Mental Model
Like Living in a Bubble
• Economic growth
– Essential to well-being
and will continue
• Energy sources
– “Boundless” for now;
technology will rescue
us in the future
• Population & pollution
David Vetter, Boy in a Bubble
– Not our problem
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Simplified Mental Model
Pollution
(Environment)
Mental Bubble
Personal
security
HEDONIC TREADMILL
Personal
gratification
Gratification
Reinforcing
Loop
Energy
consumed
Goods
purchased
Economy
Reinforcing
Loop
Global
Consumers
Global
Economy
Energy
Consumption Technology
Reinforcing Advances
Loop
Energy
available
Population
(Society)
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A System Model of Reality
• Earth’s natural resources are limited
• Population, Economy, Environment and
Well-Being are linked
• Lags between action and effect increase
complexity
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Population
Chaos or
Understanding?
Environmental
technology &
policies
Balanced
Cultural
Values
Values Reinforcing
Loop
Damage
to the
Environment
Happiness
& WellBeing
Repair
costs
Personal
gratification
Gratification Goods
Reinforcing purchased
Loop
Energy
technology
& policies
Population
Population
Reinforcing
Loop
Population
Deaths Balancing
per year
Loop
Conflict,
starvation
& disease
Connectivity
Fossil fuel
consumed
Energy
Consumption
Balancing
Loop
Rate of
energy
consumption
Energy
cost
Economy/
population
Reinforcing
Loop
Environmental
Damage
Balancing Loop
Global Economy
Global
consumers
to
Damage
to the
Environment
Births
per year
Economy
Reinforcing
Loop
Poverty
Fossil
fuel
Energy
available
Surface
water
Renewable
& efficient
energy
Delay
Food & water
available
Food & water
technology & policies
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System Strategy
• Integrated and Synergistic Actions
– Awareness and Commitment
– Sustainable Stewardship
• Leverage
– Paradigm Shifts
– Structural Change
– Transition to the future
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HOPE
Insights from Systems Thinking
• EVERYTHING IS CONNECTED
• Solution
– Integrated, collaborative, synergistic
• System challenges
– Inertia, balance, perspective, lags
• Leverage: Small actions have big payoffs
• Yes, there are LIMITS, but there is also
HOPE
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