Transcript NAM–IIEG_April 2016

Trump, Hillary and Whole Bunch
of Gas
U.S. Energy Policy in April 2016
Greg Bertelsen
Senior Director, Energy and Resource Policy
National Association of Manufacturers
National Association of Manufacturers
and U.S. Manufacturing
• Nations largest manufacturing trade association
• 14,000 members
• Represent the 12 million Americans who make
things
• The 9th largest economy in the world
• Contributes $2.17 trillion to US economy
Agenda—US Energy and US Energy
Policy
• How’d we get here?
• Where are we?
• What’s next?
Key Points
• Energy is Important
• Politics Matter
• Energy Policy is Political
How’d We Get Here?
It’s 2008…
• Trump’s TV Show the Apprentice debuts in
January 2008
• Hillary loses Iowa Caucus to Senator with
populist message
• Natural Gas spot prices are $11.28/MMbtu
Coal Dominates Electricity Mix in 2008
Source: EIA
Coal Also Dominates Attention of
Environmental Advocacy
• “The United States should leave its estimated 200 years' supply of coal in
the ground” - Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute (February 2008)
Rulemakings impacting coal since 2008
•
•
•
•
•
•
CSAPR
Utility MATS
Boiler MACT
GHG NSPS
CPP (more on that later)
And many more
Meanwhile, Energy Revolution
Underway
So, Where are we now?
• Trump still a TV hit
• Hillary (almost) lost Iowa Caucus to Senator with
populist message
• Natural gas prices ~$2.00/MMBtu (82% discount
from 2008)
2015 Electricity Generation: Natural
Gas, Renewables Up
Source: EIA
2015: Total Energy Consumption
Source: EIA
Where are we going?
•
•
•
•
•
2016 Election? Yes.
2015 Final Ozone Rule (Implementation 2016 and beyond)
Climate remains top environmental political issue
Clean Power Plan – Coal targeted again, but now, natural gas too?
“By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think
there will be many places in America where fracking will continue
to take place.” –Presidential Candidate
• “I’m very proud that the state of Vermont banned fracking. I hope
communities all over California, and all over America do the same.”
–Presidential Candidate
Quote 1: Hillary Clinton, March 6, 2016
Quote 2: Bernie Sanders, October 17, 2014
Administration’s Final Regulatory Push
• Final Well Control Rule (April 2016)
• Proposed BLM Methane Rule (January 2016)
• Final EPA Methane Rule for New Oil and Gas Operations
(expected 2016)
• Data Collection for Pending EPA Methane Rule for Existing Oil
and Gas Operations (April 2016)
• Proposed DOI Moratorium on Atlantic-coast leasing/drilling
(March 2016)
Public Evenly Split Over Fracking
• In 2015, 40% of Americans said they
supported fracking; 40% opposed it.
Source: Gallup, March 2015
Key Points
• Energy is Important
• Politics Matter
• Energy Policy is Political
Questions?
Greg Bertelsen
Senior Director, Energy and Resource Policy
National Association
of Manufacturers
[email protected]
202-637-3174