Transcript LTSA 05202014 presentation

2014 LTSA Current Trends
Scenario Results
May 20,2014
ERCOT PUBLIC
5/20/2014
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Current Trends Scenario Highlights
• Conditions existing today will generally continue into the future
• ERCOT’s basecase load forecast with the addition of small amounts
LNG
• Natural gas prices increase slowly but are generally considered low
• No major changes to environmental regulations
• Trends in capital cost for new resources are increasing at GDP with
the exception of Solar PV which is declining thru the planning period
• Modest increase in penetration of demand response
• No specified reserve margin, generator additions for conventional and
renewable resources are by economics only
• No PTC
ERCOT PUBLIC
5/20/2014
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Current Trends Results
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Thru 2029 – 5,450 MWs of CCs and 5,810 of CTs were built and 10,100 MWs of solar were built
Reserve margin increases through out the entire planning period to 12.8% in 2029
33 MWs of economic retirements and 8,789 MWs of fixed retirements
Description
CC Adds
CT Adds
Coal Adds
Nuclear Adds
CAES Adds
Geothermal Adds
Solar Adds
Wind Adds
Annual Capacity Additions
Cumulative Capacity Additions
Retirements
Residential Demand Response
Industrial Demand Response
Reserve Margin
Coincident Peak
Average LMP
Natural Gas Price
Average Market Heat Rate
Natural Gas Generation
Coal Generation
Wind Generation
Solar Generation
Scarcity Hours
Unserved Energy
SO2
CO2
NOx
ERCOT PUBLIC
5/20/2014
Units
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
%
MW
$/MWh
$/mmbtu
MMbtu/MWh
%
%
%
%
HRS
GWhs
Tons
(k) Tons
Tons
2018
650
700
1,350
1,350
955
300
1,200
9.95
76,571
52.50
5.02
10.46
46.3
31.0
12.1
8.0
4.5
312,930
240,205
120,103
2021
3,600
2,090
100
5,790
7,140
2,086
18
73
10.10
79,935
55.40
5.07
10.93
51.3
27.3
11.4
10.0
10.8
272,616
247,719
123,860
2024
2027
2029
1,200
380
3,200
4,780
11,920
2,379
19
78
10.30
82,686
65.41
5.93
11.03
49.4
28.0
10.9
2.1
10.3
11.9
304,280
256,896
128,448
1,740
4,200
5,940
17,860
2,453
21
83
11.90
85,443
68.01
6.03
11.28
50.9
25.7
9.8
4.4
10.0
10.9
272,207
256,860
128,430
900
2,600
3,500
21,360
950
14
58
12.77
87,300
71.21
6.35
11.21
51.1
25.1
9.4
5.7
8.0
8.3
266,469
259,524
129,762
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Current Trends with PTC Results
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With the addition of the PTC 4,229 MWS of wind were built
Thru 2029 – 4,000 MWs of CCs, 6,250 MWs of CTs and 10,300 MWs of solar were built
Reserve margin increases through out the entire planning period to 11.4% in 2029
73 MWs of economic retirements and 8,789 MWs of fixed retirements
Description
CC Adds
CT Adds
Coal Adds
Nuclear Adds
CAES Adds
Geothermal Adds
Solar Adds
Wind Adds
Annual Capacity Additions
Cumulative Capacity Additions
Retirements
Residential Demand Response
Industrial Demand Response
Reserve Margin
Coincident Peak
Average LMP
Natural Gas Price
Average Market Heat Rate
Natural Gas Generation
Coal Generation
Wind Generation
Solar Generation
Scarcity Hours
Unserved Energy
SO2
CO2
NOx
ERCOT PUBLIC
5/20/2014
Units
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
%
MW
$/MWh
$/mmbtu
MMbtu/MWh
%
%
%
%
HRS
GWhs
Tons
(k) Tons
Tons
2018
990
1,913
2,903
2,903
955
300
1,200
9.70
76,571
52.49
5.02
10.46
44.8
30.6
14.0
8.0
5.8
306,632
220,660
117,614
2021
2,000
3,040
1,179
6,219
9,122
2,126
18
73
9.03
79,936
55.01
5.07
10.85
48.7
27.2
14.2
12.0
11.8
272,653
223,901
119,623
2024
2027
2029
1,200
570
3,800
732
6,302
15,424
2,379
19
78
9.53
82,686
65.46
5.93
11.04
46.0
28.0
14.2
2.2
12.0
16.1
312,198
232,903
125,221
800
870
3,900
100
5,670
21,094
2,453
21
83
10.67
85,443
66.91
6.03
11.10
47.9
25.6
13.0
4.3
12.0
10.7
275,694
232,754
125,372
780
2,600
305
3,685
24,779
950
14
58
11.42
87,300
73.86
6.35
11.63
48.1
24.9
12.7
5.6
10.0
12.3
268,833
235,687
126,529
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Proposed Scenarios for Analysis
• Based on Stakeholder feedback the following scenarios were selected
as important:
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Stringent Environmental
High Economic Growth
High Efficiency/DG (may be merged with Stringent Environmental)
High Gas Price
Global Recession
• Some interest was also shown for the Water Stress, High LNG Exports
and High System Resilience scenarios
ERCOT PUBLIC
5/20/2014
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Questions?
Doug Murray
[email protected]
512-248-6908
Julie Jin
[email protected]
512-248-3982
ERCOT PUBLIC
5/20/2014
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Scenario: Current Trends
Economic Growth
• Migration to TX along I-35 corridor
• Growth in south Texas
• Industrial growth in Houston, I-35,
Midland/Odessa, Valley
• ~1.5% load growth – high growth in near term
then tapering off in long-term
• LNG growth based on permits existing –
needs review
• Oil production rates follow trend in recent EIA
projections for Texas
Environmental Regulation
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MATS and 316B are implemented by 2016
CSAPR Hybrid
Greenhouse gas regulation set with flexibility
No other major changes in environmental
regulations
Story:
Same old, same old. The recent population and
economic growth in Texas continues in the near
future, fueled largely by the continued growth of the
oil and gas sector and the relative robust Texas
economy compared to the rest of the U.S. World oil
prices high enough to keep increasing oil
production in the short-term, keeping domestic
natural gas prices relatively low. With low gas
prices, several LNG export terminals are built
between 2014 and 2024. Modest wind growth
continues based on economics without production
tax credits. Capital costs for solar continues to
decline at a slower rate than recent history. No
required reserve margin is set for ERCOT and the
environmental regulations continues to be
moderate, with no explicit federal carbon tax or
required national cap and trade, but greenhouse
gas emissions become regulated beyond 2016.
Alternative Generation
• Solar: 1000 MW / year
• Wind capacity addition limit: 3,000 MW/yr
• Capacity factor wind – rely on historical data
from ERCOT
• Capital cost wind ~$2,000/kW
• Capital cost solar ~4.4% reduction/year
• Overall renewable growth driven by economic
entry
• No production tax credit beyond 2013
• No change to existing investment tax credit
policy
ERCOT PUBLIC
Gas/Oil Prices
• EIA reference case
or best available gas and oil
5/20/2014
price forecasts
Transmission Regulation
/Policy
• Policy set to reduce constraints
• Increased DC-tie capacity with neighboring
region
• Higher reliability standards are set by
NERC to avoid load shedding
Generation Resource Adequacy
• No reserve margin set for ERCOT
• Maintain energy-only market
• Economic retirements continues based on
economics
End-Use
• Increased need for ancillary services
• Increase penetration of demand response
• Increasing distributed generation
Implications for ERCOT:
• Continued modest economic and therefore load
growth in Texas.
• Growth in oil production and population across the
state leads to new transmission needs
• Continued increased renewables leading to
reliability (inertia) issues
• No major generation retirements triggered by
stringent environmental regulations.
Weather / Water
• No drought situation, but water supply
continues to be a concern to existing and
new generators.
• No specific increase in electricity
consumption due to drought conditions.
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