Transcript Slide 1

Islamism, Religiosity and
Fertility in the Muslim world
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College,
University of London/Belfer
Center, Kennedy School, Harvard
[email protected]
Religiosity
• Affiliation/Denomination (Do you consider
yourself a member of…)
• Attendance (How often do you attend?)
• Religiosity (Are you a religious person?)
• Religious Traditionalism (Belief in Hell,
Devil, Bible as word of God)
Different studies use one or more of these
measures
Religiosity and Fertility
"One of the most central injunctions of
virtually all traditional religions is to
strengthen the family, to encourage people
to have children, to encourage women to
stay home and raise children, and to forbid
abortion, divorce, or anything that
interferes with high rates of reproduction."
(Norris and Inglehart 2004)
Second Demographic Transition
Theory
• van de Kaa 1987; Surkyn and Lesthaeghe
2004
• Lestaheghe and Neidert 2006
Thesis: As societies modernize,
religiosity becomes a more important
determinant of fertility
Studies on Religiosity and Fertility
• Adsera 2004 on Spain between 1985 and
1999
• Also finding a link: Lehrer 1996;
Berghammer, Philipov, and Sobotka 2006;
Kaufmann 2007, 2008
• Mixed Results: Westoff and Jones (1979);
Frejka and Westoff 2006
Religious Traditionalism and
Fertility
• Fargues (2000) and Berman (2000) on
ultra-Orthodox Jews
• Hout, Wilde and Greeley (2001) on
Evangelical Protestants; Sherkat (2001)
on Mormons and Hispanic Catholics
• Berman and Stepanyan (2003) on
Madrassa-attending Muslims
• Little else on Islamism
Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007
Decline of Liberal Protestants
Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation
(World Religious Database)
45
40
35
30
1900
25
1970
20
2000
15
2025
10
5
0
Christian
Muslim
Hindu
Nonreligious +
Atheist
Other
• Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians)
• Applying affiliation data to country demographic
projections
Religiosity and Fertility in Muslim Countries, 2000
Egypt
Bangladesh
.98574
Iran
Morocco
Nigeria
Tanzania
Uganda
Pakistan
Azerbaijan
'95-97
Jordan
country relig
Indonesia
Turkey
Bosnia
Albania
2000
.592294
Albania
'95-97
Algeria
1.4048
7.1
tot fertility rate
Source: 2000 WVS and World Bank.
Is Islam Different?
• Most Muslim countries more conformist in
religious terms (ie fewer seculars, less
switching)
• Second Demographic Transition More
Muted
• Puritanical Islam associated with cities, vs.
rural heterodoxy/folk religion
Islamism and Fertility
• ‘Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the
capacity for many children to grow in
it…Westerners have got problems. Because their
population growth is negative, they are worried
and fear that if our population increases, we will
triumph over them.’ – Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad,
2006
• ‘You people are supporting…the enemies of Islam
and Muslims...Personnel were trained to distribute
family planning pills. The aim of this project is to
persuade the young girls to commit adultery’ –
Taliban Council note to murdered family planning
clinic employee, Kandahar, 2008
But Islamism shows significant individual-level
effects
Attitudes to Shari'a and Fertility, Islamic Countries, by
Urban and Rural, 2000 WVS (Muslims Only)
3.5
Children Ever Born
3.3
3.1
city > 100k
2.9
town < 10k
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
Str. Agree
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Str. Disagree
Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561
respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia,
Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.
European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come?
Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007
Conclusions: Fertility
• At the individual level, religiosity and Islamism
predict higher fertility
• At the country level, no compositional effects are
evident
• Evidence for SDT effect in more 'modern'
contexts, i.e. Cities
• We would expect a sharpened SDT effect with
modernization
• Islamist population growth in Muslim settings
appears to be a long-term process, unlike Israel,
thus unlikely to affect politics until after 2050
• Future Research: projections of religious
and Islamist populations for Muslim world,
Europe, North America
• Own project:
http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
• IIASA projections project:
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~terama/Relig.html
Having an Islamic government, where
religious authorities have absolute power
Less fertility good
Less Fertility Good for Country v Islamic System of Govt
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Agree
Disagree
very good
(N=896)
fairly good
(N=578)
fairly bad
(N=260)
very bad
(N=43)
Islamic System
ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and
Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005
Sharia as Law of Land and Desirable
Fertility in the Country
Sharia and the Need for Fewer Children in the Country,
Muslim Youth in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, 2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
Fewer Children Better
60%
Disagree
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
v. important
important
somew hat imp
less imp
not imp
Sharia as Law
ARDA Youth, Emotional Energy, and Political Violence: The Cases of Egypt and
Saudi Arabia Survey, 2005
AKP Vote, 2007
Fertility, Religiosity and Islamist Voting, Turkey,
by province, 2007
AK vote 2007
100%
Mosques per Pop
90%
total_fertility_rate
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Source: Turkish National Statistics 2007, and own calculations.
?stanbul
Ankara
Yalova
Kocaeli
Malatya
Ni?de
Mu?
I?d?r
Konya
Yozgat
Mu?la
Sakarya
Elazig
Sivas
Kütahya
Karaman
Bilecik
Ordu
Giresun
Karabük
Kastamonu
0%