Transcript Earthquakes

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN PAKISTAN
A Paradigm Shift
That Will Improve the Quality of Life
in Pakistan
Part 1: Earthquakes
Walter Hays, Global Alliance
for Disaster Reduction,
Vienna, Virginia, USA
Disaster resilience, which is the
capacity of a country to rebound
quickly after the socioeconomic
impacts of a disaster,
requires decision-making for a
national paradigm shift from the
status quo.
WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER
PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE
STATUS QUO
Will result in new and more complex
HEALTH PROBLEMS
WILL result in unnecessary
DEATHS AND INJURIES
WILL result in longer and more costly
RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• TSUNAMIS
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• LANDSLIDES
• WILDFIRES
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
• Disaster resilience has become an
urgent global goal in the 21st
century as many Nations are
experiencing disasters after a
natural hazard strikes, and learning
that their communities, institutions,
and people do NOT yet have the
capacity to be disaster resilient.
PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO
NATURAL HAZARDS
•
•
•
•
FLOODS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
LANDSLIDES
MULTIPLE DISASTER
THREATS
• Pakistan faces increasing
threats each year from floods
and earthquakes, some of which
have triggered notable disasters
in recent years, and - - • Could do it again.
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN PAKISTAN
• Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into
Books of Knowledge
• Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to
Innovative Educational Surges to Build
Professional and Technical Capacity
• Step 3: From Professional and Technical
Capacity to Disaster Resilience
NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a
Nation’s “Academies of Science,
Engineering and Medicine,” its
educational institutions at all
levels, and its electronic and
print media that provide public
information
NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a
Nation’s “decision-makers,”
(i.e., its political leaders,
stakeholders, and leading
professionals)
who have a basis for deciding
on the nature and scope of a
national paradigm shift
Step 1: Integrate Past
Experiences Into Books of
Knowledge
(i.e., everything we know or think we
know about Pakistan’s earthquakes)
PART 1:
Earthquakes
1909,1929,1931, 1935, 1945,
1974,
2005, 2008, 2011,
2013
KASHMIR
EARTHQUAKE
8:52 AM SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2005
M7.6
10 KM (6 MI) DEPTH
78,000 DEAD IN PAKISTAN
COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, SCHOOLS, AND
HOSPITALS
HOMELESS
A NOTABLE HISTORIC
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
• KASHMIR – OCTOBER 8, 2005; M7.6;
8:52 am; 78,000 Deaths; 138,000 Injured;
Hundreds of Thousands Homeless; $4.5
Billion in Economic Losses.
• Destroyed more than 600,000 homes, 6,500
schools, 800 clinics and hospitals, and more
than 3,700 miles (5,900 kilometers) of road.
SOURCE ZONE: THE INDO-AUSTRIALIA PLATE
COLLIDING WITH EURASIAN PLATE
OCCURRENCE
• The earthquake occurred in the
Main Boundary Thrust Zone
(MBTZ), which runs along the
Himalayan Arc for about 2,500
km.
PAKISTAN: START PREPARING
FOR REALITY
• Experts believe that the October 8th
2005 earthquake released only
about 10 percent of the accumulated strain energy, - - • So, at least two generations of
Pakistanis are still at risk.
FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE
FACTORS
• The severity of the disaster was
exacerbated by five uncontrollable
factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of
the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the
magnitude and shallow depth of the
quake, and 5) the poor soils and
mountainous terrain of the region.
TWO CONTROLLABLE
FACTORS
• The severity of the disaster was
exacerbated by two other factors that
happened gradually over time:
• 1) the poor quality of construction of
buildings and lifeline systems, and
• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and
prepare for the deaths, injuries, and
socioeconomic losses in a disaster.
TIMING OF THE
EARTHQUAKE
• It occurred 19 km (12 mi) from
Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani
administered Kashmir.
• It happened at 8:52 am on a Saturday
morning during the month of Ramadan
while students were in school and
adults were taking a nap at home after
their pre-dawn meal.
COLLAPSED BUILDINGS
• Within a few minutes, more than 32,000
buildings in Pakistan collapsed during
the strong ground shaking,
• Entire towns and villages were partially
to totally destroyed, and
• Destructive landslides were triggered.
INFRASTRUCTURE and
COMMUNICATION
• Within minutes, - - • Most of the transportation
infrastructure was damaged or lost
its function as a result of the
ground shaking and landslides,
and communication systems were
disrupted or became inoperative.
MUZARAFFABAD: 19 KM FROM
EPICENTER
MUZAFFARABAD: LANDSLIDE
19 KM FROM EPICENTER
ISLAMABAD: 105 KM FROM
EPICENTER
NOTE: ISLAMABAD: 2015
(almost 10 years after the quake)
BALAKOT
BALAKOT
VICTIMS BURIED IN THE
RUBBLE
• Many students were buried in the
rubble of collapsed school buildings
and could not be rescued in time.
• Others were trapped in the rubble of
their collapsed homes and apartment
buildings and could not be rescued.
ISLAMABAD
ISLAMABAD
ISLAMAAD
COMPLEX EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
• Hospitals and rescue services,
including police and armed forces, had
to overcome huge obstacles such as
limited resoruces, collapsed facilities,
damage to transportation systems, and
disrupted communications to meet the
urgent needs of thousands of injured
and homeless survivors.
RESPONSIVE IN SPITE OF
THE PROBLEMS
• The Pakistan government and
the people were very
responsive to the situation.
• The World Health Organization
(WHO) provided specialized
assistance to the Pakistanis.
ISLAMABAD
RELIEF, AFTERSHOCKS, AND
LANDSLIDES
• The relief effort to supply medical
attention, food, clean water. and
temporary shelter for the survivors
was hampered by aftershocks, as
well as by landslides and falling
rocks, making parts of the region
inaccessible for several days.
MUZAFFARABAD
MUZAFFARABAD
MUZAFFARABAD
ISLAMABAD
BALAKOT
INTERNATIONAL
COOPERATION
• Five crossing points were opened on
the line of control (LoC), between India
and Pakistan, to facilitate the flow of
humanitarian and medical aid to the
survivors.
MUZAFFARABAD FOOD LINE
FOOD DISTRIBUTION WAS
AMAZINGLY EFFICIENT
FOOD DISTRIBUTION
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE
• Nearly $7 billion in international
aid was pledged by many
different countries to facilitate
one of the largest relief and
reconstruction operations in
modern times.
Step 2: From Books of
Knowledge to Innovative
Educational Surges to Build
Professional and Technical
Capacity in Pakistan to
Minimize Likely Impacts in the
Next Earthquake Disaster
This is a task that is best performed by Pakistani “Academies
of Science, Engineering and
Medicine,” existing educational
institutions, and electronic and
print media focused on public
information for all sectors
2005-12-2015: USING THE PAST
TO PREPARE FOR TOMORROW
CAUSES
OF RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
CASE HISTORIES
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE
EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER
Step 3: From Professional and
Technical Capacity to Sciencebased Decision-making for a
Paradigm Shift from the status
quo to Disaster Resilience in
Pakistan
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
Are “TOOLS” to facilitate
Pakistan’s continuing commitment
to minimize the likely impacts of
the inevitable future earthquake,
thereby preventing another
disaster
SCIENCE-BASED PAKISTAN
EARTHQUAKE ZONE MAP
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
A DISASTER:
INSUFFICIENT
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
INCREASED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE
NEXT EARTHQUAKE:
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NATURAL HAZARDS
MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
PAKISTAN’S
COMMUNITIES
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
POLICIES TO
MINIMIZE IMPACTS
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION/PREVENTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY