Transcript Future Planning (Humphris) - Consortium for Ocean Leadership

Towards Renewal of the
Scientific Ocean Drilling Program
Susan E. Humphris
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
USAC Meeting
10-12 February 2010
Austin, Texas
September 23-25, 2009
Bremen, Germany
INVEST: Steering Committee
• Christina Ravelo, US (co-chair)
climate, chemical oceanography
• Jan Behrmann, ECORD
tectonics, accretionary prisms, seismogenesis
• Bob Duncan, US
crustal processes, MOHO, LIPS
• Sean Gulick, US
convergent margins, tectonics/climate,
impacts/geohazards, sequence stratigraphy
• Heiko Pälike, ECORD
climate, Arctic, time scales
• Wolfgang Bach, EU (co-chair)
ocean crust, hydrothermal systems,
geomicrobiology
• Gilbert Camoin, ECORD
sea-level change, reef drilling
• Katrina Edwards, US
geomicrobiology, observatory science
• Fumio Inagaki, Japan
geomicrobiology, molecular ecology,
microbiology, biogeochemistry
• Ryuji Tada, Japan
climate including monsoon/land/ocean
linkages, SLC
INVEST: Total Attendance (583)
Australia
7
Belgium
3
Brazil
1
Canada
6
China
25
Chinese Taipei
0
Denmark
6
France
44
Germany
109
India
0
Italy
4
Japan
109
Korea, Rep. of 12
cf. CONCORD (1997): 156
Netherlands
6
New Zealand
1
Norway
10
Portugal
3
Russian Federation 1
Spain
7
Sweden
3
Switzerland
7
United Kingdom
53
United States
166
------------------------------TOTAL
583
COMPLEX (1999): 401
INVEST: Student Attendance (56)
Australia
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
China
Chinese Taipei
Denmark
France
Germany
India
Italy
Japan
Korea, Rep. of
1
0
1
1
2
0
0
2
24
0
0
8
1
Netherlands
1
New Zealand
0
Norway
0
Portugal
0
Russian Federation 0
Spain
0
Sweden
1
Switzerland
1
United Kingdom
2
United States
19
------------------------------TOTAL
64
INVEST: Conference Themes
1. Co-evolution of Life and Planet
2. Earth’s Interior, Crust and Surface Interactions
3. Climate Change – Records of the Past, Lessons for
the Future
4. Earth System Dynamics, Reservoirs and Fluxes
5. Earth-Human-Earth Interactions
6. Science Implementation
INVEST: White Papers (122)
Breakdown by conference themes
1-6. All Conference Themes
1. Co-evolution of Life and Planet
6. Science
Implementation
4
22
21
19
34
5. Earth-HumanEarth Interactions
5
17
2. Earth’s Interior,
Crust and Surface
Interactions
4. Earth System Dynamics,
Reservoirs and Fluxes
3. Climate Change –
Records of the Past,
Lessons for the Future
Steps Towards a New Driling Program
Timelines: Preparing for the New Drilling Program
Activities
2009
2010
2011
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
5
6 7 8 9
2012
10
2013
11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
7 8 9 10
Final draft
Final
Draft
1st
1stDraft
draft
Final
Draft
Final draft
Funding Funding
Science Community
Science Plan
Planning
INVEST Meeting
INVEST Meeting
New
Plan Outline/Draft
NewScience
Science
Plan Draft
Internal/External Review, New
Internal/External
Review
Science
Plan
X
X
X
Completed
Science
Plan
Completion
of New
Science Plan
X
Science Implementation
Plan
X
X
End of Current Program (IODP)
1stDraft
draft
1st
National Science Board Presentations
Program Architecture
Models
Science Advisory
Scientific Advisory Structure
Structure
Models for program architecture
Completion of Documents for Presentation to NSB
IWG+ Position Papers
11 12
Science Plan Writing Committee
(SPWC)
 Community nominations (~100) in October 2009 of
potential members following INVEST meeting
 SASEC subcommittee working with IODP-MI prepared
draft membership
 SASEC review and vetting; IWG+ input
 IODP-MI consultation with IWG+ (co-chairs) on final list
and leadership
 Invitations; all accepted by end of November 2009
 Committee formally formed December 2009
 First meeting 1-5 February 2010: Lake Arrowhead, CA
SPWC Members
1
Arculus, Richard
Australia
Arc magmatism, global geochemical cycle
2
Barrett, Peter
New
Zealand
Sedimentology, arctic paleoenvironments, societal impacts, IPCC linkages
3
Bickle, Mike, Chair
UK
Petrology, geophysics, geodynamics and tectonics, climate change
4
Camoin, Gilbert
France
Sea-level reconstruction, carbonate sedimentology
5
DeConto, Rob
USA
Climate modeling, ice sheet modeling, Antarctic climate history
6
Edwards, Katrina
USA
Microbiology
7
Fisher, Andy
USA
Marine hydrogeology; borehole observatories; fluid flow modeling
8
Inagaki, Fumio
Japan
Geomicrobiology, biogeochemistry
9
Kodaira, Shuichi
Japan
Structural seismology, crustal evolution, geophysics
10
Ohkouchi, Naohiko
Japan
Organic geochemistry/biogeochemistry
11
Pälike, Heiko
UK
Cenozoic climate change, stable isotopes, time scales
12
Ravelo, Christina
USA
Neogene climate change, isotope geochemistry
13
Saffer, Demian
USA
Marine hydrology, subduction faults, modeling
14
Teagle, Damon
UK
Ocean crust, hydrothermal systems; global geochemical cycles
•Liaisons: SASEC Chair Maureen Raymo and IODP-MI VP Hans Christian Larsen
•Observers: Susan Humphris and Yoshi Tatsumi
New Science Plan Considerations from
IWG+ to the SPWC
 30-40 pages, including implementation plan
 Aimed at broad scientific community to excite many
 Mix of exciting basic science and societally relevant science
 Should fit with strategic and national priorities of members
 Assume 8-12 months JR; 5 months Chikyu, 1 MSP per year
 Identify specific high priority riser projects for Chikyu
 Include borehole experiments
 Highlight linkages to other large programs
 Incorporate education and outreach throughout the Plan
DRAFT!!
Grand Challenges for the
New Drilling Program
DRAFT!!
• Climate Change: Records from the Past; Lessons for the
Future
• Deep Life: Exploration of the Marine Intraterrestrials
• Renewing the Lithosphere: Consequences for our Planet
• Earth in Motion on Human Timescales: Plate Boundaries,
Fluid Flow and Active Experimentation
DRAFT!
DRAFT!
Climate Change: Records from the Past;
Lessons for the Future
Urgent Topics
• Determining climate sensitivity and potential for extreme polar
amplification
• Ice sheet stability and rate and magnitude of sea level rise
• Ocean acidification
Underpinning Topics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Warm climates and extreme events
Climate thresholds: rapid and sudden events
Climate variability on regional scales
Hydrological cycle
ENSO
Ocean circulation states
Monsoon, ITCZ, etc.
DRAFT!
DRAFT!
Deep Life: Exploration of the
Marine Intraterrestrials
• Extent and Dispersal of Deep Life: Biomes, Connectivity, and Ecology
• Limits of Life on Earth: Extremes and Norms of Carbon, Nutrient,
Temperature, Pressure, pH, Activity
• Evolution and Survival of Life Buried Alive: Adaptation, Enrichment
and Repair
• Activity and Consequences of Deep Life: Function and Rates of
Global Biogeochemical Processes
DRAFT!
DRAFT!
Renewing the Lithosphere: Consequences for
our Planet
• Creating the Oceanic Lithosphere
-- Continental Breakup
-- MOR Processes (Mission to the Mantle)
-- Hot spots
-- LIPS
• Solid Earth Regulation of Surficial Environments
-- Hydrothermal Elemental Exchange
-- Aging of the Lithosphere
• Consumption and Reconstruction in Arcs
-- Subduction Initiation
-- 4D Evolution in Arcs
DRAFT!
DRAFT!
Earth in Motion on Human Timescales: Plate
Boundaries, Fluid Flow & Active Experimentation
• The Solid Earth in Motion: Earthquakes, Landslides & Their Tsunamis
-- Determining the Habitat and Impact of Large and Damaging Earthquakes
-- Preconditioning the Subducting Plate
-- Submarine Landslides and Their Tsunamis
-- Unraveling the Record
• Fluids in Motion: Agents of Thermal, Mechanical, Chemical & Biological
Change
-- Fluid Movement, Chemistry and Mechanical Processes
-- Hydrogeology of the Ocean Lithosphere: Processes, Quantification
and Links to Subseafloor Life
-- A Fresh Look at Gas Hydrates
• Establishing a Continued Presence in the Earth: Experimenting with
and Listening to the Earth
-- Active Perturbation: Revolutionizing the Meaning of “Natural Laboratory”
-- Distributed Long-Term Continuous Monitoring
-- Opportunities for Cabled Networks
Proposed Activities to Foster Community Support
Step 1: Develop a 3-person support team to assist in this effort (in
negotiation)
• Develop 1-pagers on major accomplishments for each theme/discipline
• Develop presentation content on Science Plan for new drilling program
• Presentations:
- universities (can USAC DLS speakers assist?)
- professional societies of other fields
• Workshop for post-docs and early career scientists
• Visits to NSF for briefings
• Visits to Congressional staff for briefings
• Encourage scientists to talk to Presidents, Deans, etc.
• Section on renewal in re-launched IODP Newsletter
A NEW DESCRIPTIVE NAME!
INVEST: Working Groups
1. Co-evolution of Life and Planet
1.1
Extent and habitability of subseafloor life and
the biosphere
1.2
Biogeochemical function, activity and ecological
roles of subseafloor life
1.3
Limits and evolution of life on Earth and beyond
1.4
Extreme environmental events and punctuated
evolution
1.5
Paleo-ecosystems: biodiversity and
biogeography
1.6
Co-evolution of ocean chemistry and the
surface/subsurface biospheres
INVEST: Working Groups
2. Earth’s Interior, Crust and Surface Interactions
2.1
Behavior of the Geodynamo
2.2
Mantle flow and interactions with lithosphere
2.3
Variability in ocean crust composition and
structure
2.4
Plate aging: ridge to trench
2.5
Subduction zones and volcanic arcs
2.6
Initiation of plate boundaries
INVEST: Working Groups
3. Climate Change – Records of the Past,
Lessons for the Future
3.1
Extreme and/or rapid climatic events
3.2
High latitude regions and stability of ice sheets
3.3
Rates and amplitudes of sea level change
3.4
Ocean-atmosphere circulation dynamics
3.5
From greenhouse to icehouse worlds
3.6
Sensitivity of the climate system
INVEST: Working Groups
4. Earth System Dynamics, Reservoirs and
Fluxes
4.1
Ocean-crust-mantle cycles
4.2
Controls and feedbacks on hydrocarbon storage
and emissions
4.3
Carbon cycle and redox budget
4.4
Fluid flow, heat flow and hydrothermal systems
4.5
Continent-ocean fluxes, weathering processes
and linkages
4.6
(Bio)geochemical element cycles
4.7
Tectonic-climate interactions
INVEST: Working Groups
5. Earth-Human-Earth Interactions
5.1
Geohazards: earthquakes
5.2
Geohazards: submarine landslides & mass
movements
5.3
Geohazards: volcanic eruptions & bolide impacts
5.4
Ocean acidification: past and future
5.5
Subseafloor resources
5.6
CO2 sequestration
5.7
Improving sea level change predictions
5.8
Climate, human evolution and civilization
5.9
Ultrahigh resolution records to improve climate
change prediction
INVEST: Working Groups
6. Science Implementation
6.1
Observatories
6.2
Subseafloor laboratories and experiments
6.3
Platform, drilling and logging tools: needs and
opportunities
6.4
Site characterization and integration with the
borehole
6.5
Analytical needs and development
6.6
Balancing long-term projects and single
expeditions
6.7
Program management options to optimize
integration
6.8
Develop broad vision for outreach, branding and
education