Transcript earthquakes
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS INDIA PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA INDIA NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIA FLOODS GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT POWER BLACKOUTS ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTHQUAKES SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL CAUSE OF SEISMICITY • The interaction of the IndoAustralia and Eurasia plates is the main causative factor for the seismicity of India. PLATE TECTONICS INDIA’S SEISMICITY INDIA:GROUND SHAKING HAZARD FAULT RUPTURE DAMAGE/LOSS EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING DAMAGE/LOSS TSUNAMI DAMAGE/ LOSS TECTONIC DEFORMATION DAMAGE/ LOSS FOUNDATION FAILURE DAMAGE/ LOSS SITE AMPLIFICATION DAMAGE/ LOSS LIQUEFACTION DAMAGE/ LOSS LANDSLIDES DAMAGE/ LOSS AFTERSHOCKS DAMAGE/ LOSS SEICHE DAMAGE/ LOSS EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (the potential disaster agents) SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS EXPOSURE MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM VULNERABILITY MODEL VULNERABILITY IS THE ULTIMATE CAUSE OF RISK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 V VI VII INTENSITY VIII IX An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or policies that change its resistance to ground shaking CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH INDIA’S COMMUNITIES THE GUJARAT, INDIA EARTHQUAKE DISASTER JANUARY 26, 2001 GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE 400 KM FROM PLATE BOUNDARY-- “A SURPRISE” GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE • MAGNITUDE 7.7 • JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51st Republic Day) • 20,000 DEAD • 167,000 INJURED • 400,000 HOMES DESTROYED • 600,000 HOMELESS STRICKEN URBAN CENTERS • BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter • Devastated • AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION) • 50 multi-story buildings collapsed ESTIMATED LOSS: $5.5 BILLION Over 1 million structures damaged or destroyed. GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE SEARCH AND RESCUE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE HOMELESS: GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE HOMELESS: GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD The impacted area was reequipped with all the basic facilities along with state-of-theart upgrades; Bhuj, for examples, now has a better hospital, town and first-aid center A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts. THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UNPREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences. THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • COST • EXPOSURE EARTHQUAKES • EVENT EXPECTED LOSS • BENEFIT •CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT POLICY ADOPTION EARTHQUAKE RISK •QUAKE HAZARDS •PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK INDIA’S GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS • PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY AND UNLIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE