Transcript EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS AND EFFECTSSEATACWASHINGTON

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
AND EFFECTS
SEATAC
WASHINGTON
Dr. Walter Hays
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (retired)
Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction
THE HEADLINES WE
NEVER WANT TO READ
COULD HAPPEN IN THE
CASCADIA SUBDUCTION
ZONE ANYTIME
“A CATASTROPHE IN THE
SEATTLE, WA AREA”
1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE
2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
3) MT RAINIER ERUPTS; LAHAR
IMPACTS SEATAC AND THE AREA
4TH
LARGEST QUAKE EVER
3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES
SEATAC IMMOBILIZED
DATE: TBD
CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE
THREE KINDS OF
EARTHQUAKES
• CRUSTAL (0-25 KM) • NISQUALLY WAS
WITH M UP TO 7.4
AN INTRAPLATE
EARTHQUAKE
• CASCADIA
LIKE THOSE OF
SUBDUCTION ZONE
1949 AND 1965
(25-40 KM) WITH
M UP TO 9.5
• BENIOF ZONE (4070 KM) WITH M UP
TO 7.5
SEATAC: AT RISK
SEATTLE: AT RISK
BACKGROUND
CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE
• The Cascadia subduction
zone, which extends from
Vancouver Island to Cape
Mendiceno, is capable of
producing earthquakes of
M 8 to 9+ and a destructive
tsunami whenever M = 8.0+.
FREQUENCY OF CSZ
EARTHQUAKES
• Moderate crustal earthquakes (M6.5)
occur about once ever 35 years and
great earthquakes (M 8.0-9.0) occur
about once every 500 years.
• At present, the probability of a M9.0
earthquake occurring during the next
50 years is 10 – 14 percent.
PAST CSZ EARTHQUAKES AND
TSUNAMIS
• The Cascadia subduction zone
produced a M9.0 earthquake
and a destructive tsunami on
January 26, 1700 that left its
“fingerprints in the Puget
Sound area” before traveling
the Pacific and reaching Japan.
EARTHQUAKES
• USUALLY NO WARNING AND NO
EVACUATION
• SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON THE SITING,
DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE
BUILDINGS TO WITHSTAND GROUND
SHAKING
• ECONOMIC LOSS DEPENDS ON THE
SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION.
LOSS OF LIFE
• LOSS OF LIFE HAS REACHED TENS OF
THOUSANDS OR MORE IN SOME MAJOR
EARTHQUAKES.
• EVACUATION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF
HARM’S WAY IS NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE
THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE CAN NOT BE
RELIABLY PREDICTED.
ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS
• AVERAGE ANNUAL ECONOMIC
LOSS TO BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE FROM EARTHQUAKES IN THE USA NOW
REACHES $4 BILLIONS
THREE QUEESTIONS
THREE QUESTIONS?
WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL
CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
 WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BE READY FOR
A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (IT MAY BE
SHALLOW OR IT MAY BE DEEP) IN THE
CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE?
CONSENSUS ON
QUESTION ONE
WHAT CAN HAPPEN
LOCAL JURISDICTIONS ARE AT HIGH
RISK
FROM THE EFFECTS OF
1) CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES,
2) CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE
EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS,
AND
3) (POSSIBLE) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
THE FAULTS
The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a
Special Reverse Fault
Strike-Slip
Reverse
Normal
So far, 13 major crustal
faults are identified in the
Puget Sound area.
Three of the most
important faults are the
Cascadia fault zone, the
South Whidbey island fault
zone, and the Seattle fault
zone.
SEATTLE FAULT ZONE
The Seattle fault is an E-W
trending zone of complex thrust
and reverse faults up to 7 km
wide and over 70 km long that
delineates the north edge of the
Seattle Uplift..
The Seattle fault was first
identified in 1965, but it was not
documented as a seismically
active fault until 1992.
SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND
FAULT ZONE
Unlike most fault systems that run
parallel to oceans and mountain
ranges, the South Whidbey Island
fault zone crosses the volcanic arc
of the Cascade Range, reaching
possibly to the Tri-Cities in
Southeast Washington, and
possibly connecting with the
Cascadia subduction zone.
The South Whidbey Island fault is
long enough to generate a M7.0 7.5 earthquake, but it is shallow (20
km), which means that the ground
shaking will be much stronger than
if the focal depth were 50 km as in
the 2001 Nisqually earthquake.
WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
STRONG GROUND SHAKING
LANDSLIDES
 LIQUEFACTION
SUBSIDENCE
 TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP
AWAKENING OF MT RAINIER
FAULT
RUPTURE
DAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
GROUND
SHAKING
DAMAGE/LOSS
TSUNAMI
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SUBSIDENCE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
FOUNDATION
FAILURE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SOIL
AMPLIFICATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LIQUEFACTION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LANDSLIDES
DAMAGE/ LOSS
AFTERSHOCKS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
THE GROUND SHAKING
DURATION OF GROUND SHAKING
IN CSZ EARTHQUAKES
• Ground shaking will have a
duration of about 20 seconds in a
M6.0 earthquake, and up to ten
minutes in a M9.0 earthquake.
A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE
• Long-period waves will
dominate the ground shaking
of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake.
• Long-period ground shaking is
very efficient in exciting tall
buildings, long bridges, and
long pipelines into vibration.
M6 - 7 CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES
• Short-period waves will
dominate the ground shaking
of a crustal CSZ earthquake.
• Short-period ground shaking is
very efficient in exciting short
buildings, short bridges, and
interior contents into vibration.
AFTERSHOCKS OF A M9.0 CSZ
EARTHQUAKE
• Aftershocks of a M9.0
earthquake will likely occur
over a period of 12-24 months.
• The aftershocks with M= 8.0+
may also generate a tsunami.
REALITY CHECK ON
QUESTION TWO
WHAT ARE THE
LIKELY
CONSEQUENCES OF
WHAT CAN HAPPEN
THE FEBRUARY 28, 2001
NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE
“A 10:54:32 AM WAKE UP CALL”
FOR OLYMPIA, TACOMA, SEATTLE,
THURSTON , PIERCE, AND KING
COUNTIES
NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE
•
•
•
•
M6.8
DEPTH: 33 MILES
10:54:32 AM
11MILES NE OF
OLYMPIA
• 14 KM SW OF
TACOMA
• 35 MILES SW OF
SEATTLE
• GROUND SHAKING
VARIABLE
• PGA OF 10 TO 25
PERCENT GRAVITY
• NO BUILDINGS
COLLAPSED
• ONE DEATH
• 400 INJURIES
• ECONOMIC LOSSES
ORDER OF $ 2 B
ECONOMIC LOSSES
• $ 1B-$2B-$3B???
• TWENTY-TWO
COUNTIES
• DAMAGE TO 13,000
APPLIED FOR
DWELLINGS
FEDERAL
• DAMAGE TO 1,100
ASISTANCE
PUBLIC BUILDINGS
•
$15.5
MILLION
IN
• DAMAGE TO
RENTAL
TRANSPORTATION/
ASSISTANCE
COMMUNICATION
SYSTEMS
CASCADIA SUBDUCTION
ZONE
STRONG GROUND SHAKING
• THIRTEEN OF
THIRTY-ONE
RECORDS
SHOWED GM > 10
PERCENT OF
GRAVITY
• TWO SHOWED GM >
25 PERECNT OF
GRAVITY
• GROUND MOTIONS
WERE COMPLEX,
VARYING WIDELY
AS FUNCTION OF
DEPTH OF QUAKE,
GEOLOGY, AND
SOFTNESS OF
SOILS
BUILDING DAMAGE
• FIFTY “RED
TAGGED”
BUILDINGS
• TWO HUNDRED
FIFTY “YELLOW
TAGGED”
BUILDINGS
• MOSTLY URM’S
• CHIMNEY
DAMAGE
• NO COLLAPSES
• SOME POUNDING
• ONE DEATH
• 400 INJURIES
CAPITAL BUILDING--OLYMPIA
PIONEER SQUARE--SEATTLE
EXAMPLES OF BUSINESS
INTERRUPTION
•
•
•
•
POWER
COMMUNICATION
TRANSPORTATION
NON-STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE
• DEBRIS
• NO CONTINGENCY/
RECOVERY PLAN
• WASHINGTON
FEDERAL SAVINGS
BANK
• STARBUCKS
• MICROSOFT
• AMAZON DOT COM
• SEATAC
LIFELINE SYSTEMS
• SEATAC: ONE-HALF
OF CAPACITY
• COMMUNICATIONS
OUT 24 HOURS
• ELECTRICAL
SERVICE --6 HOURS
• WATER SERVICE
MAINTAINED
• GAS RELIGHTS--1
WEEK
• INTERSTATE 5
CLOSED 12
HOURS
• ALASKAN WAY
VIADUCT OPENCLOSED-OPEN
• 4TH AVENUE
BRIDGE--TRAFFIC
• PORTS--NO
DISRUPTION
SEATAC CONTROL TOWER
SEATAC AIRPORT
• AIRPORT CONTROL
TOWERS ARE
ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO
STRUCTURAL AND
NON-STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE FROM
GROUND SHAKING
• FLIGHT
CAPACITY
REDUCED
FROM
40/HOUR TO
24/HOUR
LIQUEFACTION
• MULTIPLE SITES IN
OLYMPIA (CAPITAL
LAKE) AND
TUMWATER
• MULTIPLE SITES
ALONG THE
DUWAMISH RIVER
• RUNWAY OF KING
COUNTY AIRPORT
(BOEING FIELD)
• OBSERVATIONS
WERE
CONSISTENT
WITH THOSE IN
THE 1949 AND
1965
EARTHQUAKES
LIQUEFACTION
LATERAL SPREADING
LANDSLIDES
4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--OLYMPIA
THE TSUNAMI
A TSUNAMI IS INEVITABLE IN A
M8-9 CSZ EARTHQUAKE
A CSZ TSUNAMI
• Residents of coastal
communities will have about
15-20 minutes before the arrival
of tsunami waves.
• Waves will travel inland ½ mile
or more, depending on the
terrain, and then return to the
ocean.
A CSZ TSUNAMI
• Tsunami waves can continue
for hours.
• Late-arriving tsunami waves
can be larger and more deadly
than early-arriving waves.
SUBSIDENCE IN A M9.0 CSZ
EARTHQUAKE
• Much of the land along the
Pacific coast will subside (sink)
about 5 feet during the
earthquake.
• Coastal communities will be
susceptible to flooding and
tsunami wave run up.
AWAKENING OF MOUNT
RAINIER
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• VERTICAL PLUME
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to
movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
CONSENSUS ON
QUESTION THREE
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO
BE READY FOR A MAJOR
EARTHQUAKE
KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY;
RECOGNIZE AND ELIMINATE
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN
YOUR COMMUNITY’S
BUILDINGS AND LIFELINES
GOALS: KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY AND
AVOID SINGLE POINTS OF FAILURE
PART 2
HISTORIC HEADLINES READ
BY THE WORLD THAT ARE
RELEVANT FOR SEATAC
AND THE PUGET SOUND
AREA
A CATASTROPHE IN JAPAN
1) M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE
2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
3) FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR CRISIS
4TH
LARGEST QUAKE EVER
3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES
RADIATION LEAKS
2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011
THE HEADLINES WE
NEVER WANT TO READ
COULD HAPPEN IN THE
CASCADIA SUBDUCTION
ZONE ANYTIME
“A CATASTROPHE IN SEATTLE
AREA”
1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE
2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
3) MT RAINIER LAHAR IMPACTS
SEATAC AND THE AREA
4TH
LARGEST QUAKE EVER
3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES
SEATAC IMMOBILIZED
UNKNOWN DATE
BACKGROUND
Natural Phenomena that Caused the
Catastrophe
Planet Earth’s
Ongoing Convergent
Plate Motion
Caused:
Earthquakes
(e.g., The M9.0
Tohoku Quake
in Japan)
CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE
AND JAPAN’S SUBDUCTION ZONE
• The Cascadia subduction zone and
the subduction zone near Sendai,
Japan are similar in a tectonic
sense.
• Japan’s subduction zone
produced a M9.0 earthquake and a
destructive tsunami on 11 March
2011.
Natural Phenomena that Caused
the Catastrophe
Planet Earth’s
Convergent Plate
Motion Caused:
 A Tsunami
(e.g., 3-10 m
wave runup in
Japan)
ALL THE RESULT OF PLATE
TECTONICS
THE EARTHQUAKE
GROUND SHAKING
WITHIN SECONDS
AFTER 2:46 PM
LOCATION: 133 KM (80 MI) OFF
EAST COAST OF HONSHU
OFFSHORE EPICENTER
• It only took seconds for the Pand S-waves and minutes for
the tsunami waves to reach
Sendai..
SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL
IMPACTS: EATHQUAKE
• Ground shaking lasted 300 seconds
(compared with about 10 - 20 seconds
for the 1994 Northridge, CA or the 2001
Nisqually, Washington quakes).
• Hundreds of aftershocks, many in the
M6+ range and comparable in size with
the damaging 1971 San Fernando CA
quake, followed the main shock.
SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL
IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE
• The ground shaking from the
main shock and aftershocks
caused major damage, but no
unusual failures of structures or
lifeline systems, in northern
Japan.
SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL
IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE
• Four million were left without
electricity.
• Metro, trains, and airport
shut down.
AKASAKA: TRAFFIC JAM
AFTER EARTHQUAKE
PASSENGERS STRANDED:
SENDAI STATION
FIRES
SIMULTANEOUSLY
SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL
IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE
• Simultaneously, wide spread
fires burned out of control.
FIRE: NEAR SENDAI
AIRPORT
THE NUCLEAR CRISIS
DEVELOPING DURING
DAYS 1- 7
SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL
IMPACTS: NUCLEAR
• The nuclear power plants in the region
shut down automatically; an immediate
evacuation of several thousand people
in a 20 km radius followed.
• Following an explosion, radiation levels
were 1,000 times normal levels at the
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility.
FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR
FACILITY HAD 3 FAILURES
THE TSUNAMI
ABOUT 15 MINUTES
LATER
SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL
IMPACTS: TSUNAMI
• The tsunami that followed
within about 15 minutes,
changed coast lines by almost 2
m and inundated land that will
probably never be used again.
JAPAN: BEFORE (LEFT) AND
AFTER (RIGHT)
THE TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCE:
130 KM (80 MI) OFFSHORE
• The tsunami slammed the east coast of
Japan, sweeping away boats, cars,
homes and people, then racing across
the Pacific at 822 -1222 kph (500 to 800
mph) to arrive 5-7 hours later in Alaska
and Hawaii and other parts of the West
Coast of the USA, and 18 hours later
along the coast of South America.
TSUNAMI WAVES:NATON
MYIAGI PREFECTURE
OARAI INUNDATED BY
TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI WAVES REACH
COAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN
THE 3-10 M TSUNAM WAVE
RUNUP WAS DEVASTATING
The tsunami waves
inundated towns,
immobilized
airports, destroyed
buildings, and
treated everything
(e.g., people, cars)
in its path as debris.
SENDAI AIRPORT
SENDAI AIRPORT: COVERED
WITH MUD FROM TSUNAMI
SENDAI AIRPORT: COVERED
WITH CARS, MUD, & DEBRIS
TSUNAMI WAVE PATH
THE TSUNAMI TRAVELED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC
URGENT SOCIETAL NEEDS
• Vertical evacuation to escape the
tsunami wave run up, the only way to
save lives, was not available to everyone.
• Search and rescue: an urgent need over
a wide geographical area, was hindered.
• Mass care and health care needs urgent,
especially in view of the high radiation.
• With so many people missing, deaths
are expected to reach in the thousands.
SEARCH AND RESCUE
HAWAII
• The Pacific Tsunami Warning
Center reported that water rushed
ashore in Honolulu, swamping the
beach in Waikiki and surging over
the break wall in the world-famous
resort, BUT stopping short of the
area's high-rise hotels.
CRESCENT CITY, CA
SAN FRANCISCO, CA
LIMA PERU: EMPTY
BEACHES AFTER WARNING