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Natural Hazards
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www.geophysik.uni-muenchen.de/~malservisi/classes/NaturalHazards.htm
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Class schedule:
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NATURAL HAZARDS ??
A natural process that poses a threat
to human life or property
List of Natural Hazards on whiteboard
Geological
Climatical
Biological
•Earthquake
•Volcanoes
•Tsunami
•Mass
movement
•Extraterrestrial
impact
•Extreme
Weather
•Flood
•Ocean Waves
•Drought
•Fires
•Diseases
•Plant diseases
Natural Hazards Global Effects
All these events can have a big impact both socially and
economically on the affect societies and environment. Many
times they have a global effects.
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Some of global effects can be extreme:
Cretaceous Extinction: Asteroid impact and Volcanism; 85% of
all species died in the End-Cretaceous (K-T, 65 million years
ago) extinction.
Permian Mass Extinction: Cause not really know but probably
associated with Climate Fluctuation, Glaciations of Gondwana
and formation of Pangaea, or Volcanic Activity. 95% of marine
species became extinct!!
Natural Hazards Global Effects
Examples of global effect:
Toba (Sumatra, Indonesia)
eruption ~75000 years ago.
Probably 5C global average
decrease in temperature
(combined with ice age).
Population of Homo Sapiens
From >100000 to <2000
Genetic bottleneck
Natural Hazards Global Effects
All these events can have a big impact both socially and
economically on the affect societies and environment. Many
times they have a global effects.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Some of global effects can be extreme:
Cretaceous Extinction: Asteroid impact and Volcanism; 85% of
all species died in the End-Cretaceous (K-T, 65 million years
ago) extinction.
Permian Mass Extinction: Cause not really know but probably
associated with Climate Fluctuation, Glaciations of Gondwana
and formation of Pangaea, or Volcanic Activity. 95% of marine
species became extinct!!
Natural Hazards Global Effects
Examples of global effect:
Toba (Sumatra, Indonesia)
eruption ~75000 years ago.
Probably 5C global average
decrease in temperature
(combined with ice age).
Population of Homo Sapiens
From >100000 to <2000
Genetic bottleneck
Natural Hazards Global Effects
Examples of global effect:
Laki (Iceland) eruption 1783: 75% of livestock in Iceland died;
25% of the Iceland population died for the following famine;
fluorine poisoning of animals as far away as Britain; ~1.5C
diminution of the average year temperature in US and Europe
(France Revolution??)
Natural Hazards Global Effects
Examples of global effect:
•Santorini eruption+tsunami 1645 BC: Destruction of the
Minonian culture (legend of Atlantis?)
•Tambora, Indonesia 1815, average decrease of temperature in
northern hemisphere ~0.7C; 1816 “year without summer” (snow
in July in Washington DC).
•ChiChi Earthquake, Taiwan 1999:
prices of computers chips double worldwide for few months
Geological
Climatical
Biological
•Earthquake
•Volcanoes
•Tsunami
•Mass
movement
•Extraterrestrial
impact
•Extreme
Weather
•Flood
•Ocean Waves
•Drought
•Fires
•Diseases
•Plant diseases
Number of Disasters
•10 or more
people reported
killed
•100 people
reported affected
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•declaration of a
state of
emergency
•call for
international
assistance
Bias: International
database created
in 1980s
IMPORTANT!!! This does not means that the number of events
are increasing (the number of earthquake for example is constant)
but the effects on human activity are increasing!!
Number of Disasters
Another bias:
Disasters are related. For example the casualty of december 2004
are listed as tsunami (should we count them as earthquake?).
The casualty of 1998 Papa New Guinea are listed as earthquake
since majority of damages were related to the earthquake, but the
majority of the victims were related to a tsunami generated by a
landslide generated by the earthquake.
How much different hazards affects our society?
Total damages costs since 1900
Wave
Drought
Volcano
Extreme Temp
Storm
Flood
Slide
Earthquake
For all the natural hazard the global costs have been increasing
Total damages costs since 1900
Wave
Drought
Volcano
Extreme Temp
Storm
Flood
Slide
Earthquake
In term of costs Earthquakes, Tropical Storms, and Floods are the most expensive
“geological” hazards
Epidemic and Famine have been historically the most devastating in term of casualty
Plague in middle age killed 1 every 3 european, Spanish Flu Pandemic 1920 30 million
Total damages vs Population
Increase in total damages correlate well
with increase in population
Where do the Hazard Happens?
Geographical Distribution
Earthquake
Volcanoes
Tornado
Storms Risk
Almost all the areas of the planet are affected by some kind of hazard
Stable interior of continent more “safe” but often not suitable to life
Population distribution vs Risk map
Population distribution vs Risk map
The human population is concentrated in “risky areas”
We need water, topography is controlling the hydrological cycle
Often river flows in valleys controlled by fault position
Rivers are more “manageable” in flat costal regions.
Stable interiors of continents are often deserts.
We need soil: volcanoes produce excellent fertile soil. Water and
plants are essential in soil formations (see point 1). River flood
Planes have excellent soil brought by periodic floods
We need communications way: flat costal areas are often the only
suitable regions to build houses and roads.
We are too many and we start to build in places where we should not
Build and our ancestor were not building (river banks, beaches…)
Population distribution vs Risk map
Active tectonic is a necessity to have
a planet where we can live!
We live in a dangerous planet but probably there is life
On Earth because our planet is dangerous!