Transcript Exponential models of Polio

Exponential Models
By: Sam Schuesler & Cynthia Tena
POLIO
Polio
(virus)
Lies in the
intestine, &
the nervous
system in
the body.
It likes to
Move to the
brain and
Spinal cord,
Where It can
cause paralysis.
It dislikes the
vaccine
developed in
1954 that has
tamed it
throughout most
Of the world.
Poliomyelitis
About Polio
• A large outbreak in India accounted for most of the increase.
• India is one of seven countries where the disease is still
endemic.
• But there has been some success in the fight against polio with
Ethiopia, Sudan and Angola, where the virus had been
endemic, declared polio-free in 2002.
• Access to children in Somalia and Afghanistan for vaccination
has also improved.
• The World Health Organization hopes to completely wipe out
polio by 2005.
Poliovirus
Poliomyelitis Pathogenesis
Vaccine
!Polio!
Exponential Model
• A quantity grows exponentially when its
increase is proportional to what is already
there.
• Our objective in this project was to provide
evidence of the spread of poliomyelitis, and
how fast it’s growth was. A comparison could
be made with the present spread of
meningitis.
Everyday Two More People Are Infected
35000
Number
30000
25000
20000
Two people each day
15000
10000
5000
0
0
5
10
Day
15
20
Everday Five More People Are Infected
35000000000
30000000000
Number
25000000000
20000000000
Five people each day
15000000000
10000000000
5000000000
0
0
5
10
Day
15
20
Everyday More People are Infected
1500000000
1300000000
Number
1100000000
900000000
700000000
Two each day
Three each day
500000000
Four each day
Five each day
300000000
100000000
-100000000
0
5
10
Days
15
20
Tuberculosis
• Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by
bacteria called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a
bacteria that cause latent TB infection and
active TB disease
The Difference Between Latent TB Infection and
Active TB Disease
A Person with Latent TB
Infection





Has no symptoms
Does not feel sick
Cannot spread TB to others
Usually has a positive skin test or
QuantiFERON-TB® Gold test
Has a normal chest x-ray and sputum
test
A Person with Active TB
Disease




Has symptoms that may include:
 a bad cough that lasts longer than
2 weeks
 pain in the chest
 coughing up blood or sputum
 weakness or fatigue
 weight loss
 no appetite
 chills
 fever
 sweating at night
May spread TB to others
Usually has a positive skin test or
QuantiFERON®-TB Gold test
May have an abnormal chest x-ray, or
positive sputum smear or culture
Symptoms of TB
•
Symptoms of TB depend on where in the body the TB bacteria are
growing. TB bacteria usually grow in the lungs. TB in the lungs may cause
symptoms such as:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
a bad cough that lasts longer than 2 weeks
pain in the chest
coughing up blood or sputum (phlegm from deep inside the lungs)
Other symptoms of active TB disease are
weakness or fatigue
weight loss
no appetite
chills
fever
sweating at night
Cures for TB
•
•
•
With appropriate antibiotic
treatment, TB can be cured in more
than nine out of ten patients.
Successful treatment of TB depends
on close cooperation between the
patient and doctor and other health
care workers. Treatment usually
combines several different antibiotic
drugs which are given for at least six
months, sometimes for as long as 12
months.
Patients must take their medicine on
time every day for the 6 to 12
months. Some TB patients stop taking
their prescribed medicines because
they may feel better after only a
couple of weeks of treatment.
Another reason they may stop taking
their medicine is because TB drugs
can have unpleasant side effects
Total number of new cases of tuberculosis in
white non-Hispanics, blacks, and Hispanics in
the United States, 1980–2010.
Projected quartiles of
tuberculosis case rates per
100,000 by state, 2010
HIV/AIDS
• The Red Ribbon is a symbol
that shows the caring and
support in the world.
• HIV-Human
Immunodeficiency Virus is
the virus that causes AIDS
• AIDS was first identified as
a disease in America in
1981.
Just Some Numbers To Crunch
ot
al
t
gl
ob
er
am
in
Country
al
ica
an
rib
be
la
t
rth
no
ca
ica
am
er
ea
ni
a
oc
ri c
a
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
af
Number
People Living With HIV/AIDS
people living with hiv/aids
Here are some more
People Newly Infected
Number
4
3
2
1
0
africa
oceania
north
america
caribbean
Country
latin
america
global total
people newly inf ect ed
rth
nia
am
er
ica
ca
rib
be
an
lat
in
am
er
ica
glo
ba
lt
ot
al
no
ea
oc
af
ric
a
Number
More…
Deaths
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Country
deaths
Estimated AIDS Diagnosis
Number
40,000
30,000
under 34
20,000
above 35
10,000
0
1,998
2,000
2,002
Year
2,004
Last one!
Deaths By AIDS
Number
16000
11000
under 34
6000
above 35
1000
1,999
2,000
2,001
Year
2,002
2,003
!Special Thanks!
• To Char and Jim Morrow for their
guidence
• To Mora for all her help
• To Shirley who assisted us technology
• Also to Anusha our RA for her on
going persistance