Transcript GC2 Systems Thinking Workshop

Systems
GC2
Thinking
Workshop
15 March 04
What is a System?
• “An interconnected
set of elements that
is coherently
organized around
some purpose”
-Dana Meadows
lsb.syr.edu/projects/cyberzoo/images/collaredpeccaryfw.gif
www.crocodileclips.com/crocodile/
physics/m1_6.ht
What is Systems Thinking
• "A discipline for
seeing wholes...a
framework for seeing
interrelationships
rather than things,
for seeing patterns
rather than static
snapshots"
-Peter Senge
1. A perspective on
reality
2. A set of tools
3. A new vocabulary
A perspective on reality…
Mechanistic
Thinking
Parts
Objects
Events
Isolation
Specificity
Simplicity
Systemic
Thinking
Wholes
Relationships
Structures
Interdependence
Generality
Complexity
Events
Patterns
Systemic Structures
A set of tools…
Source:
Number of
people in
a city (P)
S
(M) Modernization
S
S
S
(G) Amount
of garbage
per area
(C) Migration
into a city
O
(B) Bacteria
per person
O
O
S
O
S
(D) Number
of diseases
(S) Sanitation
facilities
O
S=Respond in same direction; O=Opposite direction
# PEOPLE
S
Balancing loop
Reinforcing
loop– –
pushes level
up or
reinforces
change
downeven
to reach
with
morea goal
(i.e.,
carrying
change;
leads to
capacity). growth
exponential
or decline
TIME
Number
of people
in a city
(P)
(1)
S
(3)
S
R
Number
of people
in a city
(P)
(M)
Modernization
S
S
S
O
(B)
Bacteria
per person
S
(C)
Migration
into a city
S
S
(S)
Sanitation
facilities
(S)
Sanitation
facilities
(D) Number
of diseases
O
O
Number
of people
in a city
(P)
S
S
O
Number
of people
in a city
(P)
(4)
S
(M)
Modernization
S
S
(M)
Modernization
S
S
S
S
(G) Amount
of
garbage
per area
B
S
S
O
(B)
Bacteria
per person
(C)
Migration
into a city
R
(G) Amount
of garbage
per area
S
S
(S)
Sanitation
facilities
O
S
O
(B) Bacteria
per person
O
(D) Number
of diseases
(C)
Migration
into a city
(B)
Bacteria
per person
S
(2)
R
(G) Amount
of
garbage
per area
O
(D) Number
of diseases
(M)
Modernization
S
S
S
(G) Amount
of
garbage
per area
S
(C)
Migration
into a city
O
S
(D) Number
of diseases
(S)
Sanitation
facilities
O
The Coming Anarchy
1. Team up in pairs and find one causal loop
of 4 or more elements
•
Attribute S’s and O’s to the links and record
reasoning on the worksheet
2. Get together with another pair and explain
loops to each other; decide on one loop
and draw it on paper
3. Each group of 4 will present loop to class
4. Discussion: Is Kaplan’s vision the state of
human kind? Where can we intervene?