Transcript here - The Andover Beacon

GM Monawar Hosain
State Cancer Epidemiologist
Bureau of Public Health Statistics and Informatics
NH Division of Pubic Health Services
Cancer in NH
Cancer has been the #1 leading cause of
death in New Hampshire since 2005
It is the cause of approximately 25% of all
deaths in New Hampshire
Lifetime risk of developing cancer:
1 in 2 male, 1 in 3 female
>75% of cancers occur after age 55 years
Percent of all invasive cancers
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
<1
Both sexes 0.1%
1-4
0.2%
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 +
0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.8% 3.4% 5.6% 9.0% 11.4% 13.4% 13.3% 11.9% 11.2% 8.8% 7.2%
Female
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
1.3%
2.5%
4.7%
7.2%
9.7% 10.9% 12.2% 11.2% 10.2% 10.1% 9.2%
8.7%
Male
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.2%
2.2%
4.2%
8.3% 11.8% 14.5% 15.2% 13.5% 12.2% 8.3%
5.9%
Age Group
NH is the 4th oldest in USA
This increased longevity may create the
impression that cancer is becoming much
more common even though an increase in
the number of cancer cases is partly
related to the aging population
Median Age of NH: 41.1 + 0.1years
Median age of Andover: 48.6 + 2.6 years
Total number of invasive cancer cases in
NH during 2005-2011 time period:
N= 52,474
The total number invasive cancer cases in
Andover during the same period:
N= 96
(only Breast, Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Melanoma and
Uterus had 5 or more cases)
Definition of a Cancer Cluster
A cancer cluster is the occurrence of a greater than
expected number of cases of a particular cancer
within a group of people
within a geographic area, or
within a period of time
A suspected cancer cluster is more likely to be a true
cluster, if it involves:
A large number of cases of a similar type of
cancer, rather than several different types
A rare type of cancer, rather than common types,
and
An increased number of cases of a certain type of
cancer in an age group that is not usually affected
by that type of cancer
Analysis
The common occurrence of a cancer increases
the potential for cancer cases to appear to cluster
in a neighborhood.
This is why we conduct statistical analyses to see
whether local cancer rate are within the normal
range of variations
Standard Incidence Ratio (SIR)
The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) is a
measure that compares the cancer rate in a town
with the state/country, taking into account
differences in age in the different communities
This report was prepared based on data
from the NH State Cancer Registry, 20052011
Only invasive cancers were included:
Malignant cases (localized, regional,
distant stage) of all cancer sites and
In-situ cancers of urinary bladder only
All cancers
Gender Expected Observed
SIR lower CL Upper CL
Male
54.8
62
1.13
0.87
1.45
Female
43.5
34
0.78
0.54
1.09
Both
96.7
96
0.99
0.80
1.21
Breast Cancer (Female)
Gender Expected Observed
Female
13.1
12
SIR lower CL Upper CL
0.91
0.47
1.60
Prostate Cancer
Gender Expected Observed
Male
15.8
13
SIR lower CL Upper CL
0.82
0.44
1.41
Lung Cancer
Gender
Male
Female
Both
Expected Observed
SIR lower CL Upper CL
7.4
6.1
10
5
1.35
0.82
0.65
0.26
2.48
1.91
13.3
15
1.13
0.63
1.86
Colorectal Cancer
Gender Expected Observed
Both
8.0
11
SIR lower CL Upper CL
1.38
0.69
2.47
Melanoma
Gender Expected Observed
Both
5.1
6
SIR lower CL Upper CL
1.17
0.43
2.55
Uterus
Gender Expected Observed
Female
3.2
5
SIR lower CL Upper CL
1.57
0.51
3.67
Our results suggest that various cancer
rates are within the range of what is
expected in comparable populations in
New Hampshire
Statistical estimates are not exact, but
these numbers do not look outside of the
normal range of variability
These results are reassuring, as they
suggest that the most likely explanation
for these observations is random chance
and not due to environmental factors
These analyses do not prove absolutely
that there is no issue in your community,
but the information does not lead us to
believe there is a specific environmental
concern causing cancer in your
community
It is unfortunate when any adult or child
develops cancer, regardless of data and
statistics, and
We appreciate that you brought it to our
attention, and
We will continue to monitor cancer rates
in the future.
Any Questions??
Thank you.