Transcript Delivered Wind Resource Proposals for TVA from Pattern Energy

Economic Analysis
Proposed Scope
ERCOT RPG Meeting
September 17, 2010
Economic Analysis Process Review
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Pattern’s proposed Economic Analysis Modeling Approach Description distributed to
RPG on 8/30
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21-day stakeholder comment period ends 9/20
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Pattern reviews comments and provides responses back to RPG
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Pattern finalizes economic analysis scope definition with ERCOT assistance as
needed
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Economic Study completion expected 6 to 8 weeks after finalization of study scope
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Overview of Modeling Process
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Use UPLAN platform
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Full nodal SCUC SCED processes
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8760-hour simulation for single study year, 2015
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Base Case and two Change Cases
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Base Case = markets with expected development and average conditions
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Change Case = Base Case + Southern Cross
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Change Case A: ERCOT-expected 2015 wind build out assumptions
(~10,500 MW of total ERCOT wind)
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Change Case B: ERCOT-assumed wind and 3000 MW additional wind
development stimulated by the Southern Cross project
Comparison of the Base Case with each Change Case will yield economic impacts
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Input Assumptions
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Use ERCOT input assumptions (publicly available from ERCOT) where possible
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Use alternative sources when ERCOT assumptions are not made publicly available,
such as:
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Information used by ERCOT but not released:
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ERCOT’s generator heat rate characteristics
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Fuel forecasts
Certain ERCOT information where modifications will allow more direct comparison of
of two markets, e.g.:
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ERCOT’s weather-normalized load will not be used for ERCOT given that
similarly normalized load data is not available for SERC. Will instead use
comparable load data from NERC and FERC filings
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Input Assumptions – SERC detail
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SERC input assumptions from either:
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Publicly available sources
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Topology
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Load
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Generating units: location, capacity, type
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Operating reserve requirements and regions
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Emissions costs
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Wheeling rates
LCG Proprietary Sources
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Fuel forecast
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Generator heat rates
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External regional supply
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Capacity additions (total capacity values provided in RPG document)
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Detailed Modeling Assumptions:
Provided in RPG Document
Source of data
ERCOT - Model
SERC - Model
Transmission Topology
SERC, File 2015SUM_2009series_MMWG_Final.RAW
ERCOT File 2010 5YTP 2015 Economic Case 08122010.xls
Gas forecast
Geneartion units location
Branch ratings from 2015SUM_2009series_MMWG_Final.RAW; SPP/Entergy
Interfaces from SPP Book of Flowgates; Southern/TVA interfaces to be determined
SPP/Entergy Contingencies from the SPP/Entergy CBA
NERC Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D) database
NERC Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D) database
FERC Form 714
FERC Form 714
Proxy price-responsive generator formulated to emulate historical tie line flows.
LCG Proprietary data emulating historical flows.
EIA
LCG Proprietary Algorithm based on NYMEX and EIA data
Using ERCOT's commodity price for both markets but applying LCG proprietary
ERCOT single region-wide price, File 2010_5YTP_Gas_Prices.xls
forecast of basis price. Will publish regional average SERC price.
ERCOT File 10DSB_Generation_Dispatch_Update_07162010.xls
SERC, File 2015SUM_2009series_MMWG_Final.RAW
Generation capacity
Generation fuel type
Generating operating characteristics (e.g., heat rate)
ERCOT File 10DSB_Generation_Dispatch_Update_07162010.xls
ERCOT File 10DSB_Generation_Dispatch_Update_07162010.xls
LCG Proprietary data
Transmission constraint limits
Contingency list
Load peak & Energy
Load shape
External regional supply
Coal price forecast
Oil price forecast
New Generation Additions and Retirements
Regulation requirements
Operating reserve requirements
Operating reserve sharing arrangements
Regulation regions
Operating reserve regions
Allowance prices
Dispatchable demand quantity and price
Wheeling rates: Southern Cross Export from ERCOT
Wheeling rates: ERCOT to SPP
Wheeling rates: SPP to ERCOT
Wheeling rates: Within SERC/SPP
Losses
Publicly available sources such as EIA, NERC Electricity, Supply and Demand
database and LCG proprietary data
LCG Proprietary data
LCG Proprietary data including interconnection agreements for new generation.
(Attachment 2 shows the total SERC capacity with additions assumed for the
ERCOT File 10DSB_Generation_Dispatch_Update_07162010.xls
2015 simulation.)
LCG Proprietary
historical &
SERC RELIABILITY CORPORATION CONTINGENCY RESERVE POLICY http://www.ercot.com/content/mktinfo/services/kd/2010%20Methodologies%20for December 8, 2008
%20Determining%20AS%20Requirements.pdf
Midwest Contingency Reserve Sharing Group, SPP Reserve Sharing Group,
VACAR Reserve Sharing Group
Only ERCOT (1 region)
Control Areas (Source: 2015SUM_2009series_MMWG_Final.RAW)
Consistent with publicly available allowance values and applicable allowance
CO2 Based on ERCOT-assumed values as available and other publicly available
values
otherwise.
regions.
SO2
NOX
ERCOT incorproates demand response in load forecast and Operating Reserves. Demand response assumed to be included in load forecast data. No additional
No additional demand response assumed.
demand response assumed
Based on PUC-approved tariff rates.
From SPP/Entergy public cost-benefit analysis assumptions, "FERC SPP-Entergy
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CBA Meeting Materials July 1, 2010, " GE MAPS Input Assumptions
Draft for Discussion Purposes, June 23, 2010 (Draft Update), Table 3
(http://www.spp.org/section.asp?group=1784&pageID=27).
Average Lossess
Consistent with ERCOT Economic modeling, non are applied. Rather embedded
in assumptions about Tie line flows.
Metrics
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ERCOT metrics consistent with RPG charter and procedures
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Societal Benefits/Production cost impacts for ERCOT and by Load Zone
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Consumer Benefits/Energy cost savings
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LMP * consumption at each load node
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Producer Savings
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Over ERCOT and by Load Zone
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“Export Charges” that will reduce the transmission revenue requirement and other
charges paid by loads
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Emissions Impacts
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Changes in CO2, NOx, and SOx
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Questions?
Contact Information
Chris Shugart, Project Developer
(713) 308-4241
[email protected]
David Parquet, Executive Sponsor
(415) 713-3301
[email protected]
Matt Dallas, Media Relations
(917) 363-1333
[email protected]
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