Transcript No Slide Title

Grain Marketing: Getting Back to the
Fundamentals
Darrel L. Good
Scott H. Irwin
Forecasting in Agriculture
Consider, this information for Illinois farmers over
1975-2001
Corn
Soybeans
Average price
$2.16/bu.
$5.85/bu.
66th percentile
$2.44/bu.
$6.25/bu.
Revenue gain
$39.99/acre
$17.68/acre
2
2
Fundamental Analysis
• Definition: An assessment of price based on the
underlying supply and demand factors and the
changes in those relationships
• Motivated by economic theory of supply and
demand
– The task of the market is to establish a price that will
“clear” the market
• Fundamental analysis can be thought of as the
process of anticipating the market clearing price
3
3
Fundamental Analysis
• Techniques: Subjective judgement to
sophisticated statistical models
• Goal: Estimate “fundamental value” and
compare to market price
– Bullish: Value > Price
– Bearish: Value < Price
4
4
Price Making Forces in the Corn
Market
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Acreage
Yield
Weather
Exchange rates
Consumer income
Government policies
Foreign grain
production
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Livestock numbers
Interest rates
Consumer income
Feeding rates
Livestock prices
Trade agreements
World economic
growth
5
5
Balance Sheets
• Most popular tool used in fundamental
analysis of crop prices
• Unit of analysis is a marketing year
• Constructed for a particular country, region or
the entire world
– Build supply side first
– Then build consumption, or use, side
– Price ties both sides together by rationing
available supplies to competing uses
6
6
Economic Model Underlying
Balance Sheets
Price
S0
P0
Demand
Q0
Quantity
7
7
Balance Sheet Format for Corn
Beginning Stocks
+ Production
+ Imports
= Total Supply
Feed and Residual
+ Food, Seed and Industrial
+ Exports
=Total Consumption (Use)
Ending Stocks =Total Supply – Total
Consumption
8
8
Balance Sheet Format for
Soybeans
Beginning Stocks
+ Production
+ Imports
= Total Supply
Crush
+ Exports
+ Food, Seed and Residual
=Total Consumption (Use)
Ending Stocks =Total Supply – Total
Consumption
9
9
Forecasting Calendar for
2004/2005 Corn Balance Sheets
• Fall 2003: First forecasts of supply and use
for 2004-2005 marketing year
– Typically based on trend forecasts, recent history
and basic economic relationships
• Spring 2004: Update supply forecasts based
on USDA acreage surveys
• Summer 2004: Update supply forecasts
based on weather and USDA crop reports
10
10
Forecasting Calendar for
2004/2005 Corn Balance Sheets
• Fall 2004-Summer 2005:
– Continue to update supply forecasts based
on USDA crop reports (Aug-Nov, Jan)
– Update use forecasts based on:
•
•
•
•
Export sales and inspections reports
Quarterly USDA stock estimates
Livestock numbers
Monthly processing reports
11
11
WASDE Balance Sheet Estimates
from the USDA
• WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates
• Cover all major commodities
• Separate balance sheets maintained for over
90 countries!
• Numerous agencies within USDA participate
in “consensus” process
• Serve as the benchmark balance sheet
estimates for nearly all market participants
12
12
Constructing Early Season
2004/2005 Balance Sheets for
Corn
• The first WASDE estimates will not be
released until May 2004
• We will use simple trend projections and
last year’s values as our starting point
13
13
Balance Sheet Format for Corn
Beginning Stocks
+ Production
+ Imports
= Total Supply
Feed and Residual
+ Food, Seed and Industrial
+ Exports
=Total Consumption (Use)
Ending Stocks =Total Supply – Total
Consumption
Price = ???
14
14
Ending Stocks and Price
• Ending stocks indicate the relative
balance between supply and demand
– Ending stocks high, price low
– Ending stocks low, price high
• Relationship between ending stocks
and price is often used to forecast
prices
15
15
Corn Ending Stocks and Price,
1975/76-2003/04*
6,000
3.50
Price
3.00
4,000
2.50
3,000
2.00
2,000
Price ($/bu.)
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.)
5,000
1.50
1,000
Stocks
-
1.00
1975/76
Source: USDA
1981/82
1987/88
1993/94
1999/00
*2003/04 Projected
16
16
US Corn Ending Stocks/Total
Use, 1975/76-2003/04*
Ending Stocks/Total Use (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1975/76
1980/81
Source: USDA
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
*2003/04 Projected
17
17
Graphical View of Corn Market
Price
QSt
Pt
QDt
Qt
Quantity
18
18
Adding Shifter Variables
• In the simple model, there is only one
equilibrium because nothing ever changes!
• In reality, we know that:
– Demand curves shift due to changes in the price
of substitutes, income and other variables
– Supply curves shift due to changes in the price of
inputs, technology and other variables
• Key point: Changing equilibrium prices and
quantities are driven by changes in the level
of “shifter variables”
19
19
Graphical View of Model with a
Single Demand Shifter (Income)
Price
QSt
P2t
P1t
QDt (It level 2)
QDt (It level 1)
Q1t Q2t
Quantity
20
20
Model with A Demand Shifter (Income) and
Supply Shifter (Fertilizer Price)
Price
QSt (Ft level 2)
P2t
QSt (Ft level 1)
P1t
QDt (It level 2)
QDt (It level 1)
Q1t Q2t
Quantity
21
21
Corn Price and Ending
Stocks/Use, 1975/76-2003/04*
3.50
Price ($/bu.)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
22
22
Corn Price and Ending Stocks/Use,
1975/76-2003/04: Linear Model*
3.50
y = -0.0104x + 2.5865
R2 = 0.159
Price ($/bu.)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
23
23
Logical Characteristics of Relationship
Between Price and Stocks
• As ending stocks approach zero, theoretically,
there is no upper limit for price
• As ending stocks get very large, price is
unlikely to go below some minimum
“reservation” level
24
24
Theoretical Functional Form
Between Price and Ending Stocks
Price
Ending Stocks/Use
25
25
Corn Price and Ending Stocks/Use,
1975/76-2003/04: Reciprocal Model*
3.50
Corn Price ($/bu.)
y=5.85(1/x) + 2.00
R2=0.27
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ending Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
26
26
Different Approaches to Account
for Shifts in Relationship
• Include shifter variables directly in the pricing
model and estimate one model for the entire
sample period
• Estimate separate pricing models for subperiods
– The level of shifter variables is assumed to be
relatively constant within a sub-period
27
27
Corn Price and Ending Stocks/Use,
1989/90-1997/98*
3.50
Red = 1989/1990-1997/1998
Price ($/bu.)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
28
28
Corn Price and Ending Stocks/Use,
1989/90-1997/98: Reciprocal Model*
3.50
Corn Price ($/bu.)
y=6.89(1/x) + 1.90
R2=0.96
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
0
5
Source: USDA
10
15
20
Ending Stocks/Total Use (%)
25
30
29
29
Corn Price and Ending Stocks/Use,
1989/90-2003/04: Reciprocal Model*
Corn Price ($/bu.)
3.50
y=6.89(1/x) + 1.90
R2=0.96
3.00
2.50
2002/03
2003/04
2.00
2001/02
1998/99
2000/01
1999/00
1.50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ending Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
30
30
Corn Price and Ending Stocks/Use,
1989/90-2003/04: Reciprocal Models*
Corn Price ($/bu.)
3.50
y=6.89(1/x) + 1.90
R2=0.96
3.00
2.50
2002/03
2003/04
2.00
2001/02
y=12.18(1/x) + 1.22
R2=0.91
1999/00
1998/99
2000/01
1.50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ending Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
31
31
What Changed During the Last
Six Marketing Years?
• All else equal, supply shifted to the right
• Or, demand shifted to the left
–
–
–
–
FSI demand?
Export demand?
Feed demand?
Stock demand?
• Some combination of supply and
demand shifts
32
32
US Planted and Harvested Corn
Acreage, 1975/76-2003/04
90,000
Acreage (thousands)
85,000
Planted
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
Harvested
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
1975/76
Source: USDA
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
33
33
Difference Between US Planted and
Harvested Corn Acreage, 1975/76-2003/04
14,000
Acreage (thousands)
13,000
12,000
1990/91-2003/04
average w/out 1993/94
& 2002/03 = 7,006
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
1975/76 1980/81 1985/86 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01
Source: USDA
34
34
Factors Affecting Acreage
Decisions
• Economic theory suggests the following
variables are important in farmer's acreage
decisions,
– Expected product price
– Expected price for products that substitute in
production
– Input prices
– Technological change
– Risk
– Government programs
– Lagged effects
35
35
Ratio Indicators
• Given the complexities, analysts often
combine variables into ratios that provide
important “indicators” for supply decisions
• For crops, one of the most widely-followed is
the ratio of soybean to corn prices
• Corn and soybeans “compete” for the same
resources in production
• Opportunity cost concept
36
36
Soybean-Corn Price Ratio
• Indicator of incentives to switch acreage
between soybeans and corn
• Key is the breakeven ratio (BEPR)
– Ratio that equates the expected net returns from
producing corn and soybeans
– 2.5 typically is assumed BEPR
– Assumes constant relative level of production
costs and yields
37
37
Annual Average Soybean/Corn Price
Ratio in the US, 1975/76-2003/04
Ratio of Soybean-to-Corn Price
3.50
Soybean production favored
relative to corn
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1975/76
Corn production favored relative
to soybeans
1980/81
Source: USDA
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
*2003/04 Projected
38
38
Change in Corn Acreage Share and
Soybean/Corn Price Ratio, 1996/972003/04
Change in Corn Acreage Share (%)
2.5
2.0
1.5
y = -5.2322x + 12.717
R2 = 0.6849
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.52.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Ratio of Soybean-to-Corn Price
39
39
The Relative Level of
Government Price Support
• 2000:
– National average loan rate for soybeans $5.26/bu.
– National average loan rate for corn $1.89/bu.
– Ratio: 2.78, soybean production clearly
encouraged relative to corn
• 2004:
– National average loan rate for soybeans $5.00/bu.
– National average loan rate for corn $1.95/bu.
– Ratio: 2.56, soybean production slightly
encouraged relative to corn
40
40
Limitations of Soybean-Corn
Price Ratio
• Profitability of soybeans and corn can change
due to:
– Price of soybeans rising relative to corn, and vice
versa
– Input prices for soybeans rise relative to corn, and
vice versa
– Technology can improve for soybeans relative to
corn, and vice versa
41
41
USDA Acreage Surveys
• Another alternative approach is to directly
survey farmers about their planting intentions
• USDA surveys farmers about acreage
planting intentions in March and June
• Since the USDA acreage surveys are so
widely followed, it is important to examine the
accuracy of these intentions
42
42
March USDA Planting Intentions and
Actual Planted Corn Acreage,
1975/76-2003/04
90,000
March Intentions
Acreage (thousands)
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
Actual
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
1975/76
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
Year
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
43
43
June USDA Planting Intentions and
Actual Planted Corn Acreage,
1975/76-2003/04
90,000
June Intentions
Acreage (thousands)
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
Actual
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
1975/76
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
Year
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
44
44
Error for March and June Planting
Intentions for US Corn Acreage,
1975/76-2003/04
4,000
June
+ = Underestimate of Acreage
Error (thousand acres)
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1975/76
-1,000
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
-2,000
-3,000
March
-4,000
-5,000
- = Overestimate of Acreage
Year
Source: USDA
*2003/04 Projected
45
45
Error for March Planting Intentions for
US Corn Acreage, 1975/76-2003/04
4,000
Error (thousand acres)
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1975/76
-1,000
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-5,000
1975/76-1989/90
Average = + 482
Source: USDA
1990/91-2003/04
Average = -753
*2003/04 Projected
46
46
Conclusions
• Overall, evidence suggests that USDA
acreage surveys provide good forecasts of
actual planted acreage
• Typically, only small changes in corn and
soybean planted acreage forecasts after the
USDA releases the June acreage survey
47
47
Early Forecasts of Yield
• Consider this question: Previous to about
June 1, what information do we have that is
useful for predicting corn and soybean
yields?
• During this period, we have little or no current
information that is relevant to predicting yield
• We will have to rely on past history of yields
as our best data for forecasting at this point
48
48
US Corn Yields, 1975/19762003/04: Linear Trend
150
Yield (bu./acre)
140
130
y = 1.7294x + 88.417
R2 = 0.6529
120
110
100
90
80
1975/76
1980/81
Source: USDA
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
*2003/04 Projected
49
49
Early Season Production
Forecasts
• Combine:
– Planted acreage forecast
– Harvested acreage forecast
– Trend yield forecast
50
50
Improving on Trend Yield
Forecasts
• More accurate yield forecasts can be
generated as the following information
becomes available,
–
–
–
–
–
–
Planting dates
Crop conditions
Rainfall
Temperature
Disease
Insect infestations
51
51
A Timeline for Corn Yield Forecasting
• Previous to June 1:
– Trend yield forecasts
• June 1 to July 31:
– USDA/NASS crop conditions ratings
– Statistical models based on temperature, rainfall
and other data
• August 1 to November 1:
– USDA/NASS yield forecasts
– USDA/NASS crop condition ratings
– Statistical models based on temperature, rainfall
and other data
52
52
USDA/NASS Forecasts of Corn
Yields
• Corn yield forecasts made for the following
dates:
–
–
–
–
–
August 1
September 1
October 1
November 1
January 1
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
“Final”
53
53
Release Schedule
• Reports released to the public about the 10th
of each month
• Note that planted acreage estimates are also
updated for each report
• Usually, little change in acreage from June
planting intentions report, so nearly all of the
variation in crop size forecast is due to yields
54
54
Components of NASS Forecasts
• Reported NASS yield forecasts are based on
two types of information
– Farm operator survey
– Objective yield survey
55
55
Farm Operator Survey
• Farmers’ assessment of yield prospects
• Samples drawn from a list frame consisting of the
names, addresses, and telephone numbers of
producers
• Same sample of farmers used for all forecast
months
• Drawn from list frame developed for June
Agricultural Survey
56
56
Objective Yield Survey
• Enumerators visit fields and record
information about yield potential
• Sample fields are selected randomly from
the area frame for the June Agricultural
Survey
• Fields selected only for major producing
states
• Same fields visited for each report
• Counts and measurements made in two
plots in each field
57
57
Objective Yield Measurements
• Corn
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Rowspace
2 rows x 15 ft
Stalks
Ears & ear shoots
Ears with kernals
Kernal row length
Ear diameter
Ear weight
• Soybeans
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Rowspace
2 rows x 3.5 ft
Plants
Lateral branches
Blooms, dried flowers & pods
Pods with beans
Pod weight
58
58
Preparation of Crop Reports
• Agricultural Statistics Board reviews all
indications and determines final national and
regional yield estimates
• Farmer and objective yield indications are
combined in a multistage process
– Both statistical and judgmental techniques used
59
59
Errors for USDA August Corn
Production Forecasts, 1970/712002/03
15
10
Forecast Error (%)
5
0
1970/71 1975/76 1980/81 1985/86 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Source: USDA
60
60
Errors for USDA September Corn
Production Forecasts, 1970/712002/03
15
10
Forecast Error (%)
5
0
1970/71 1975/76 1980/81 1985/86 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Source: USDA
61
61
Errors for USDA October Corn
Production Forecasts, 1970/712002/03
15
10
Forecast Error (%)
5
0
1970/71 1975/76 1980/81 1985/86 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Source: USDA
62
62
Errors for USDA November Corn
Production Forecasts, 1970/712002/03
15
10
Forecast Error (%)
5
0
1970/71 1975/76 1980/81 1985/86 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Source: USDA
63
63
Conclusions
• Overall, evidence suggests that the USDA
performs reasonably well in forecasting corn
production
• Market participants view USDA corn
production forecasts as important new
information
• The following publication contains a complete
analysis:
– Darrel L. Good and Scott H. Irwin. “Understanding USDA Corn and
Soybean Production Forecasts: An Overview of Methods, Performance and
Market Impact.” AgMAS Project Research Report 2003-07, Department of
Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign, October 2003.
64
64
Forecasting Calendar for
2004/2005 Corn Use Categories
• Fall 2003: First forecasts of use for 2004/05
marketing year
– Typically based on trend forecasts, recent history
and basic economic relationships
• Spring and Summer 2004: Update use
forecasts based on US and world production
prospects
• 2004/05 Marketing Year: Update use
forecasts based on export sales and
inspections reports, quarterly USDA stocks
reports and USDA livestock inventory reports65
65
Corn: Food, Seed, and Industrial
Use
• Rapid growth in last 20 years
– About 10% of use in early 1980s
– About 20% currently
• Largest components are:
–
–
–
–
–
Corn sweeteners for food and soft drinks
Corn starch for construction uses
Ethanol for fuel
Cereals, snack foods
Only ethanol use has been growing recently
66
66
Corn: Forecasting Food, Seed,
and Industrial Use
• Food component tends to grow at the rate of
population growth
• Relatively price insensitive
• Corn sweetener and ethanol use is critically
affected by government policies
– Sugar program
– Ethanol subsidies
67
67
Food, Seed, and Industrial Use of
Corn, 1975/76-2003/04 *
3,000
FSI (million bushels)
2,500
y = 64.665x + 373.03
R2 = 0.9819
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1975/76
1980/81
Source: USDA
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
*2003/04 Projected
68
68
Corn Exports, 1975/76-2003/04*
Exports (million bushels)
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
1975/76
1980/81
Source: USDA
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
*2003/04 Projected
69
69
Corn: Forecasting Exports
• Large variation year-to-year and difficult to
forecast
• Factors to consider
– Crop production in importing and exporting
countries
– Prices in competing export countries
– Exchange rates
– Government export subsidy programs both in the
US and other countries
– Economic growth
– Livestock numbers outside the US
70
70
Corn: Domestic Feed and
Residual Use
• Largest component of corn use
• Averages about 60% of total corn
consumption
• Primary driver of corn prices
• Largely dependent on the number of “grain
consuming animal units”
71
71
Corn: Residual Use
• Wherever possible, use is cross-checked with
objective information source
– Export loadings at US ports
• Not all use can be cross-checked
• Leads to a category for “residual” or
“unaccounted” use
– Reflects measurement error in one or more use
categories or in production estimates
– Lumped together with feed usage in corn balance
sheet
72
72
Corn: Forecasting Domestic Feed
and Residual Use
• Related directly to the number of beef, pork
and poultry animals on feed
• Number of animals on feed is, in turn, related
to expected profits to livestock production
• Profitability depends on:
– Livestock prices
– Price of feed including corn
• Also have to account for relative price of feed
inputs, such as sorghum and wheat
• Complex!
73
73
Domestic Feed and Residual Use
of Corn, 1975/76-2003/04*
Feed and Residual (million bushels)
6,500
6,000
y = 75.143x + 3601.1
R2 = 0.8173
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
1975/76
Source: USDA
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
*2003/04 Projected
74
74
Changes in Demand
• Changes in quantity demanded and demand
are NOT the same thing
• Change in quantity demanded
– Movements along a demand curve
• Change in demand
– Shifts in the demand curve
75
75
Demand and Use
• Demand and use are also not the same thing
• Use (usage, utilization, consumption)
– Equilibrium quantity observed in a market
– Equals both the quantity demanded and quantity
supplied
76
76
First Balance Sheet Estimates
For 2004/05
USDA
USDA
Your Estimate
Item
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
Planted Acreage (1,000 acres)
79,054
79,066
79,250
Harvest Acreage (1,000 acres)
69,313
71,765
72,250
130
143
140.3
Begining Stocks (million bushels)
1,596
1,086
1,349
Total Production (million bushels)
9,008
10,278
10,137
Total Supply (million bushels)
10,619
11,374
11,496
Feed and Residual (million bushels)
5,642
5,700
5,720
Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels)
2,298
2,450
2,520
Exports (million bushels)
1,592
1,875
1,875
Total Consumption (million bushels)
9,533
10,025
10,115
Ending Stocks (million bushels)
1,086
1,349
1,381
Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%)
11.4
13.5
13.6
Average Price ($/bu.)
2.32
2.10
2.12
Yield (Bushels)
77
77
Calculating the 2004/05 Price
Forecast for Corn Using the Ending
Stocks Model
1
Ending Stocks/Total Use
X Slope
+
Constant
=
US Average
Farm Price
1
Ending Stocks/Total Use
X 12.18
+
1.22
=
US Average
Farm Price
1
13.6
X 12.18
+
1.22
=
US Average
Farm Price
0.073
X 12.18
+
1.22
=
$2.12
78
78
Forecasting the 2004/05 Corn Price
Using the Ending Stocks Model
Corn Price ($/bu.)
3.50
3.00
2.50
$2.12/bu.
2.00
13.6%
1.50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ending Stocks/Total Use (%)
Source: USDA
79
79
Computing the 2004/05 Corn Price
Implied from the Futures
Market
Central
Calendar
Month
Corn
Futures
Contract
11/21/03
Futures
Price
Central
Illinois
3-Yr. Avg.
Basis
Illinois
Cash Price
Implied
by Futures
---$/bu.--Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Dec-04
Dec-04
Dec-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Mar-05
Mar-05
May-05
May-05
Jul-05
Jul-05
Sep-05
2.45
2.45
2.45
2.45
2.49
2.49
2.49
2.52
2.52
2.55
2.55
2.55
-0.21
-0.17
-0.13
-0.10
-0.15
-0.11
-0.09
-0.11
-0.10
-0.10
-0.11
-0.11
Illinois
5-Yr. Avg.
Marketing
Weight
Price
Weight
---%--2.23
2.28
2.32
2.35
2.34
2.38
2.40
2.41
2.42
2.45
2.44
2.44
6.8
11.6
6.0
6.6
20.4
7.2
8.4
6.2
5.6
6.2
7.6
7.4
Central Illinois Farm Price Forecast Implied from Futures
Central Illinois Basis Adjustment Relative to US Average
US Average Farm Price Forecast Implied from Futures
US Average Farm Price from Ending Stocks Model
0.15
0.26
0.14
0.16
0.48
0.17
0.20
0.15
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.18
$2.36
-$0.05
$2.31
$2.12
80
80