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2 Toward a
Paradigm Shift?
Roberto Poli
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http://www.projectanticipation.org
The Problem of the Future
Anticipation
Foresight
Protension
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Forecast
Prospection
http://www.projectanticipation.org
Philosophy
Husserl
Anthropology
Bennett
Biology
Rosen
Anticipation
Sociology
Schutz
Brain studies
Berthoz
Economy
Ansoff
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Psychology
Tolman
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Philosophy
Husserl
Anthropology
Bennett
Biology
Rosen
The Future as Cultural Fact,
Appaduray 2013
Anticipation
Sociology
Schutz
Brain studies
Berthoz
“Imagined Futures. Fictional Expectations
in the Economy”, Beckert 2013
Economy
Ansoff
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Psychology
Tolman
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Prospection theory,
Seligman 2013
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Seligman, M. E. P., Railton, P., Baumeister, R. F., & Sripada, C.
(2013). Navigating Into the Future or Driven by the Past.
Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(2), 119-141.
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Appadurai, A. (2013). The Future as Cultural Fact. London:
Verso.
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Beckert, J. (2013). Capitalism as a System of Expectations:
Toward a Sociological Microfoundation of Political
Economy. Politics and Society, 41(3), 323-350.
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Seligman
Seligman’s paper is a major contribution to a new
conception of psychology as a whole
As a matter of fact, during the past decade
psychologists have begun systematic study of people’s
orientation towards the future (for a non-technical
introduction to time perception see Hammond 2012)
Seligman’s paper, however, has the nature of a
paradigm shift, and it will likely provoke heated
discussion
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Seligman
Main aspects
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Historical reconstruction of the development of psychology
(behaviorism, cognitivism)
Empirical collection of data, especially on white rats
The prospective brain – analysis of its “default mode”
Other aspects
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Comparison with and critique of Kahneman and Twersky’s “prospect
theory”
Prospective reformulation of several psychological disorders
Analysis of memory, subjectivity, consciousness, and free will
While I shall have to be very selective, the paper is worth
reading in its entirety
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Abstract
Prospection … , the representation of possible futures, is
a ubiquitous feature of the human mind. Much
psychological theory and practice, in contrast, has
understood human action as determined by the past and
viewed any such teleology (selection of action in light of
goals) as a violation of natural law because the future
cannot act on the present. Prospection involves no
backward causation; rather, it is guidance not by the
future itself but by present, evaluative representations of
possible future states. These representations can be
understood minimally as “If X, then Y” conditionals, and
the process of prospection can be understood as the
generation and evaluation of these conditionals.
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Abstract
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… A wide range of evidence suggests that prospection is
a central organizing feature of perception, cognition,
affect, memory, motivation, and action. The authors
speculate that prospection casts new light on why
subjectivity is part of consciousness, what is “free” and
“willing” in “free will,” and on mental disorders and their
treatment.Viewing behavior as driven by the past was a
powerful framework that helped create scientific
psychology, but accumulating evidence in a wide range of
areas of research suggests a shift in framework, in which
navigation into the future is seen as a core organizing
principle of animal and human behavior.
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Quotations
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“The past is not a force that drives them (needs and
goals) but a resource from which they selectively extract
information about the prospects they face. These
prospects can include not only possibilities that have
occurred before but also possibilities that have never
occurred” (119)
“The prospective organism must construct an evaluative
landscape of possible acts and outcomes” (120)
“The success or failure of an act in living up to its
prospect will lead not simply to satisfaction or frustration
but to maintaining or revising the evaluative
representation that will guide the next act” (120)
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Quotations
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“At any given moment, an organism’s ability to improve its
chances for survival and reproduction lies in the future,
not the past. So learning and memory, too, should be
designed for action. These capacities actively orient the
organism toward what might lie ahead and what
information is most vital for estimating this” (120)
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Quotations
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“Behaviorist learning theory did not even work for white
rats in the laboratory” (121)
“Psychoanalysis … carefully done longitudinal studies …
have found disappointingly small effects of childhood
events on a range of adult behaviors” (123)
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Ernst Bloch’s Principle of Hope distinguishes two different types
of dreams: past-oriented dreams (Freud), future-oriented
dreams (such as daydreaming)
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Quotations
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“The … acceptance of expectations … opens the way to
a fundamental reorientation in thinking about how past
experience influences behavior – not through the direct
molding of behavior but through information about
possible futures. Choice now makes sense … stretching
well beyond actual experience and enabling them (the
rats) to improvise opportunistically on the spot” (124)
“… attention to another core aspect of cognition that is
oriented toward prospection: the active, selective seeking
of information (“exploration”)” (124)
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Quotations
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“In this section, we offer an a priori argument for the
centrality of expectation in current models of rational
cognition and choice, and we then consider some striking
evidence from ecology and neurophysiology that animals and
humans might actually implement these models” (124)
“The good regulator theorem … suggests that for the brain to
be a good regulator of interactions with the environment, both
physical and social, it must build and use a model of that
environment” (124)
Expectation  observation  discrepancy detection 
discrepancy-reducing change in expectation  expectation …
“Family of feed-forward—feed-back models of learning and
control” (124)
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Quotations
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“Generating simulations of the future can be conscious,
but it is typically an implicit process … often not
accessible to introspection, and apparently occurring
spontaneously and continuously” (126)
“Much prospection appears to share the architecture of
the optimal models developed a priori in philosophy,
economics and system analysis (126)
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Quotations – critical issues
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“Start with the question of what component psychological
mechanisms or capacities a creature needs to have in order to
be free and autonomous. Build a catalogue that encompasses the
full assortment of “design features” that make an agent free …
then … are abstract metaphysical questions broached”
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These “catalogues” do not exist for natural systems
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Form the list of properties of say an apple – and I will show you
something that has all those features and is not an apple
These catalogues may exist for simple (and closed) systems
Usual “downward” vision – from the whole to its parts
(structural analysis)
No “upward vision” – from the whole to the higher-order
wholes in which the former is embedded (functional analysis) –
No idea of the presence of hierarchical cycles (self-referential or
impredicative loops)
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Anthropology
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Anthropology has traditionally focused its research on
non-industrial societies
Its main focus has been the cultural reproduction of
identity, which for the most part means analysis of the
ways in which societies develop their sense of the past
Claims no longer valid: anthropology has begun to focus
on both industrial societies and the ways in which societies
develop their sense of the future (Appadurai, 2013, 285)
Within anthropology, the recent debate on anthropology
and the future has been ignited by Guyer (2007)
Here I will consider only two main contributions to this
otherwise rich debate: namely the already-mentioned
work Appadurai, together with Piot (2010).
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Anthropology
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Perhaps surprising from a European perspective, in West Africa
Pentecostal churches are the main forces forging a new
understanding of the future. By urging a break with the past,
including rejection of the old structures of authority, these
churches reshape temporality (Piot, 2010, p. 9)
Attention may be called to the fact that “US pastors are now
traveling to Africa to be ordained – because they see African
Christianity as a purer form – before returning ‘home’ to
engage in ‘mission’ work” (Jenkins, 2002); (Piot, 2010, p. 63).
There is more than this, however. The issue is not limited to
rejection of the past; the really intriguing issue is that “futures
are replacing the past as cultural reservoirs” (Piot, 2010, p. 16).
While our understanding of these pentecostal-mediated
futures is remarkably poor (for an insider’s point of view, see
(Heward-Mills, 2006)) the very possibility of using futures as
cultural reservoirs is central to the idea of anticipation
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Theology
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The connection between religion and the future is not
limited to the new Pentecostal churches
Within the Christian tradition, the issue is whether the
entire doctrine is already explicit in the Scriptures or
“points of doctrine not made explicit in the New
Testament are able to emerge gradually in the historical
tradition of the Church” (Love, 2010, p. 171)
Since John Henry Newman and his 1845 Essay on the
Development of Christian Doctrine (1974), the idea that
doctrine develops in history has become a guiding
principle of dogmatic theology
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Theology
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It is worth noting, however, that according to Newman
the “doctrine develops through the gradual influence of
the past upon the present” in a way that “truth latent in
the past is gradually made explicit at a later time” (Love,
2010, p. 174)
More recently, the question has been raised whether
“doctrinal development really have to be wholly
explicable in terms of the past”. In the words of Cyprian
Love: “This is not to deny the major significance of the
historical sources of doctrine in Scripture. But are these
past norms the limit of the originating impulse behind
doctrinal evolution?” (Love, 2010, p. 174)
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Theology
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From within the exegetic tradition making reference to
Karl Rahner (see in particular his 1973) one may further
add that “the future is not simply the prolongation of our
past, nor merely the actualization or implementation of
our present plans. Such an understanding of the future
would be primarily a projection of a static present. The
real future is ‘uncertain’ and is not just the unfolding of
our present ideas or strategies. It is not simply a
calculated human creation involving ‘plans plus time.’
Rather, the open future that comes to meet us brings
surprises. That unforeseen future requires provisionality,
since it cannot be calculated or controlled” (Prusak, 2004,
p. 313).
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Anthropology
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Coming back to anthropology, Appadurai claims that, in
order to develop a systematic understanding of the
future, anthropologists should examine “the interactions
between three notable human preoccupations that shape
the future as a cultural fact, that is, as a form of difference.
These are imagination, anticipation and aspiration”
(Appadurai, 2013, p. 286)
… even if “we have not yet found ways to articulate how
anticipation, imagination, and aspiration come together in
the work of future-making” (Appadurai, 2013, p. 298)
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Anthropology
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Nevertheless, “as we refine the ways in which specific
conceptions of aspiration, anticipation, and imagination
become configured so as to produce the future as a
specific cultural form or horizon, we will be better able to
place within this scheme more particular ideas about
prophecy, well-being, emergency, crisis, and regulation. We
also need to remember that the future is not just a
technical or neutral space, but is shot through with affect
and with sensation. Thus we need to examine not just the
emotions that accompany the future as a cultural form,
but the sensations that it produces: awe, vertigo,
excitement, disorientation” (Appadurai, 2013, pp. 286287).
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Anthropology
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The capacity to anticipate the future is socially
differentiated, however
On understanding that “‘the capacity to aspire’ is
unequally distributed” and that “its skewed distribution is
a fundamental feature, and not just a secondary attribute,
of extreme poverty” (Appadurai, 2013, p. 289) one begins
to grasp some of the deeper issues related to the future
as a cultural reservoir. Not everybody has access to this
reservoir.
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Anthropology
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As a step towards building a future reservoir where none
is available, one may consider the productive role played
by memory. “While state-generated archives may
primarily be instrumental of governmentality and
bureaucratized power, personal, familial, and community
archives –especially those of dislocated, vulnerable, and
marginalized populations—are critical sites for negotiating
paths to dignity, recognition, and politically feasible maps
for the future” (Appadurai, 2013, p. 288)
Put differently, without “the capacity to aspire as a social
and collective capacity … words such as ‘empowerment’,
‘voice’, and ‘participation’ cannot be meaningful”
(Appadurai, 2013, p. 289).
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Anthropology
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Anthropologists need to engage in a “systematic effort to
understand how cultural systems, as combinations of
norms, dispositions, practices, and histories, frame the
good life as a landscape of discernible ends and of practical
paths to the achievement of these ends
This requires a move away from the anthropological
emphasis on cultures as logics of reproduction to a fuller
picture in which cultural systems also shape specific images
of the good life as a map of the journey from here to there
and from now to then, as a part of the ethics of everyday
life” (Appadurai, 2013, p. 292).
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Anthropology
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This effort will evidence the difference between what
Appadurai calls ‘the ethics of possibility’ and ‘the ethics of
probability’
The former is based on “those ways of thinking, feeling and
acting that increase the horizon of hope, that expand the field
of the imagination, that produce greater equity in what [he
has] the capacity to aspire, and that widen the field of
informed, creative, and critical citizenship”
Conversely, the ethics of probability deals with “those ways of
thinking, feeling, and acting that flow out of what Ian Hacking
called “the avalanche of numbers”… they are generally tied to
the growth of a casino capitalism which profits from
catastrophe and tends to bet on disaster” (Appadurai, 2013, p.
295
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Beckert
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Economics deals with the future in many different ways, at many different
levels. Governments deal with forecasts on the inflation rate and the increase
or decline in the Gross Domestic Product; almost any aspect of the strategic
management of companies concerns the future: from calculation of the
production of goods adjusted to seasonal variations to long-term decisions
about producing entirely new goods or opening new factories. In turn, finance
is entirely based on anticipations
Leaving aside all its remarkable technical complexities, the basic rule of
finance is simple, almost trivial: buy assets that are going to grow in value, sell
assets that are going to fall in value – both sides include unavoidable
reference to the future
However, the vast majority of the ways to see into the future exploited by
economists are severely constrained. There are entire realms of anticipation
that have never been considered by economists
Even within economics, however, things are starting to change. Jens Beckert in
particular is opening new avenues. Particularly worth mentioning is his
endeavor to break down the walls that so far have isolated economics,
political science and sociology from each other (Beckert, 2013a, p. 324).
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Economics
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In order to understand the micro-processes underlying macroeconomic outcomes, one should focus on agents’ expectations. The
economic activities that are pursued or avoided are established by
expectations
The problem is that “under conditions of fundamental uncertainty,
expectations cannot be understood as being determined through
calculation of optimal choices taking into account all available
information, but rather are based on contingent interpretations of
the situation in the context of prevailing institutional structures,
cultural templates, and social networks” (Beckert, 2013a, p. 325)
It is here that Beckert introduces the concept of ‘fictional
expectation’ referring to “present imaginaries of future situations
that provide orientation in decision making despite the incalculability
of outcomes” (Beckert, 2013a, p. 325)
This means that fictional expectations are more imaginations about
the future than they are forecasts
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Economics
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Like imaginations, fictions add creativity to the economy and
contribute to the dynamics of capitalism (Beckert, 2013b, p. 220)
As Beckert explicitly declares, “the notion of fictional expectations is
directed against the concept of ‘rational expectations’ constituting
the micro-foundation of much of modern macro-economics”
(Beckert, 2013a, p. 325, 2013b, p. 221)
The reason is clear: according to rational expectations theory,
aggregate predictions are correct because individual errors are
random. Therefore predicted outcomes do not diverge
systematically from the resulting market equilibrium. As a
consequence the uncertainty of the future becomes a predictable
forecast, paving the way for the rational calculation of optimal
choices. On the other hand, the true openness of the future makes
it impossible to explain decisions as calculations of optimal choice
(Beckert, 2013b, p. 221)
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Economics
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Despite all the objections raised against the just summarized
train of thought, such as the role played by cognitive biases or
true novelties, the ideology of the rational calculation of
optimal choices is still the position defended by the vast
majority of working economists. Apparently, economists tend
to analyze uncertainty as if it were risk
As should be well-known, the distinction between the
calculability of risk as opposed to the incalculability of
uncertainty was introduced by Frank Knight as early as the
1920s (Knight, 1921). This notwithstanding, within economic
thought there seems to be an unrestrainable tendency to blur
their differences and to see everything as risk
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Economics
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Beckert’s intention is to reintroduce a difference between
risk and uncertainty by raising the question of the nature
of expectations under conditions of uncertainty
Here is his answer: “Structurally, expectations depend on
cultural frames, dominant theories, the stratification
structures of a society, social networks, and institutions.
But the concept of fictional expectations gives the notion
of expectations at the same time a political twist because
expectations are seen as being open to the manipulation
by powerful actors” (Beckert, 2013a, p. 326).
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Economics
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In order to clarify his concept of fictional expectation
better, Beckert openly claims that “it is the future that
shapes the present—or, to be more specific: it is the
images of the future that shape present decisions”
(Beckert, 2013b, p. 221)
The fact is that actors must develop expectations “among
other things, with regard to technological development,
consumer preferences, prices, availability of raw materials,
the strategies of competitors, the demand of labor, the
trustworthiness of promises, the state of the natural
environment, political regulations, and the
interdependencies among these factors”, despite the true
unknowability of the future (Beckert, 2013b, pp. 221-222)
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Economics
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Hence expectations are real fictions – there is no chance of
seeing them through the opposition between truth and
falsehood; eventually, the proper opposition will be based on
the difference between convincing as opposed to unconvincing
expectations. Moreover, expectations are more than ‘mere
fantasies’ because actors develop plans that are based on and
include them
Finally, fictional expectation work on an ‘as if’ base: “fictional
expectations represent future events as if they were true,
making actors capable of acting purposefully with reference to
an uncertain future, even though this future is indeed
unknown, unpredictable, and therefore only pretended in the
fictional expectations” (Beckert, 2013b, p. 226)
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Anticipation
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I have summarized three papers published in 2013
Their authors address different communities of scholars and
different disciplines
Nevertheless, the main message is clear: human and social sciences
should move from being primarility past-oriented sciences to
become primarily future-oriented sciences
This raises the issue of the Discipline of Anticipation (next lecture)
So far, a systematic comparison among the many proposals
concerning anticipation is lacking. The research-base is fragmented
However
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For a preliminary surwey: R. Poli, “The many aspects of
anticipation”. Foresight, 2010, 12(3), pp. 7–17.
Bibliography ≈100-pages: M. Nadin, “Annotated Bibliography
Anticipation”. International Journal of General Systems, 2010, 39(1), pp. 35–
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Conclusion
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The relevance and impact of both ongoing discussions and
those that will hopefully arise require more than sound and
clever arguments
At stake is the Zeroth Commandment and the implied need
for a change of paradigm. Piecemeal adjustments will not do
On placing anticipation (or ‘prospection’ in Seligman’s
terminology) at the top of the research agenda of the human
and social sciences, a slew of new questions arise
Whilst futurists may not have the highest academic credentials,
we have accumulated a body of experience with the futures
that no other field, academic or otherwise, possesses
Therefore, the onus of contributing or even leading the
emergent change is on us. Hic Rhodus, hic salta
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