Transcript Mr. Ronald Jansen

Data mining of the UN
Comtrade database in
cooperation with Customs
Ronald Jansen
Chief of the Trade Statistics Branch
United Nations Statistics Division / DESA
E-mail: [email protected] or
[email protected]
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Matching Imports and Exports Data
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Reason for bilateral trade asymmetries
o
Country of Origin /Country of Destination

o
Valuation CIF /FOB

o
Adding Country of consignment
Imports and Exports FOB
Trade System

General Trade System for all
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Country of Origin / Destination
China (A)
A records exports to B
B records Imports of A
Hong Kong
(B)
C records Imports of A
Re-exports to C
Netherlands
(C)
Re-exports to D
Germany (D)
D records Imports of A (country of origin)
4
Country of Consignment
China (A)
A records exports to B
B records Imports of A
Hong Kong
(B)
C records Imports of B
Re-exports to C
Netherlands
(C)
Re-exports to D
Germany (D)
D records Imports of C
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Imports CIF / FOB
Three Methods to obtain Imports FOB:
1. Recording of Cost, Insurance and
Freight per transaction
2. Recording of Cost, Insurance and
Freight per Shipment (and partition)
3. Sample Freight and Insurance by HS,
Partner country and Mode of Transport
and use to adjust CIF to FOB
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Trade System
A 2006 global survey showed that 50%
of countries use General Trade system
and 50% Special Trade system
 Difference in coverage (free zones,
customs warehousing, processing zones)
will lead to discrepancies in recording
 All countries encouraged to record all
elements of General Trade system (even
in addition to Special)

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Harmonization Process (M=X)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Reconciliation exercises – finding
common ground
Reconciling large trade (Chatham House)
Use of imports (origin) as breakdown for
partner exports
Estimation methods (USITC)
Customs interest in solving discrepancies
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SAS Visual Analytics for
UN Comtrade
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UN Comtrade
in the Sandbox
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Comtrade in the Sandbox
 UNECE Big Data Project – Results by November 2015
 Available data – 2000-2014 annual HS and Tariff line data
 IT specialists – ISTAT, Statistics Netherlands, UNSD, OECD
 Proposals – Regional Value Chain analysis, Trade asymmetries,
Unit-value indices calculations, Trade flow estimations (missing
data and forecasting)
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Regional Value Chain analysis
 Replicating – Network Analysis of World Trade (De Benedictis
et al., 2013)
a) Global and local centrality measures
b) Sectoral Trade Networks
• Commodities? (Bananas; Olive Oil [Casieri et al.])
• Industries? (DeBacker & Miroudot; Sturgeon & Memedovic)
c) Restricting to Intermediate Goods trade
d) Focusing on Geo-graphical groups
 Building on “Mapping Global Value Chains”
a)
Intra- versus Extra-group trade in intermediate goods
 Building on OECD work on “Regional economic integration” Yamano et al; DeBacker and Miroudot;
a)
International I-O approach
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Trade Networks
 Commodities
o Bananas, Cement, Movies, Oil, Footwear, Engines (De
Benedictis)
o Olive Oil (Casieri)
 Industries
o Agriculture and Food, Chemical products, Motor vehicles,
electronics, business services, financial services (DeBacker &
Miroudot)
o Electronics, Passenger vehicles, Apparel (Sturgeon &
Memedovic)
o CGGC Duke: Electronics, Aerospace, Medical Devices,
Horticulture, Wheat, Fruit and vegetables,
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Project added-value
Industry Mapping

o
o
o
BEC and intermediate goods

o


GVC Mapping
ISIC sectors (TiVA)
Other?
BEC Revision 5 – Split of Economic Categories and
End-use; Goods and Services; differentiating within
Intermediate goods – generic and specific intermediates
Estimating missing trade flows
Analyzing bilateral trade asymmetries
Thank you
Ronald Jansen
Chief of the Trade Statistics Branch
United Nations Statistics Division / DESA
E-mail: [email protected] or
[email protected]
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