Transcript Cannabis Cultivation on Federal Lands in California (working title)

Cannabis Cultivation on
Federal Lands in California
In-Progress Review
17 Feb 2004
Rising Drug Threat on Federal Lands
8 of the Top 10 National Forests for
Cannabis Eradication are in California
 Sharp escalation of organized
drug production, trafficking, and
related violence on NFS lands,
especially in California
Mendocino
– 2.7M plants seized (2000-03) 24,798 plants
889,884 acres
– Meth labs/dump sites increasing
– Cultivation plots larger, more
sophisticated
Six Rivers
23,148 plants / 1.09 acres
National Forest Service
Bur. Land Management
Individual Public Land
Stanislaus
42,716 plants
898,000 acres
Sierra
41,775 plants
 466,000 cannabis plants
eradicated in CA worth $1.9B
– 75% (350k) eradicated on public lands
Sequoia
1.3M acres
49,826 plants
1.1M acres
San Bernardino
Los Padres
44,286 plants
34,673 plants
660,000 acres
2M acres
Cleveland
Sources: US Forest Service and California’s
Campaign Against Marijuana Planting, Oct 2003
115,674 plants
460,000 acres
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Drug Threat on CA Federal Lands
 “Significant evidence of
International Drug Trafficking
Organizations operating on
NFS lands” -- USFS
Drug-Related Violence Against
Tourists / Park Officials Rising
1 Week in California National Forests:
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 Traffickers knowingly target
Federal lands for their large
remote and un-patrolled areas 
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500
400
300
200
In thousands
Seizures in CA
1994-2003 (USFS)
Rise Due to
Organized Cultivation
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0
Sept 13 -- Los Padres NF – Hunter shot at by growers
Sept 14 – Sierra NF– Victim shot near 4,500-plant
garden
Sept 16 – Los Padres NF – FS and County Raid team
fired on by growers
Sept 16 – BLM Public Lands, Shasta Co., CA –
CAMP and Shasta County deputies shoot out. Two
growers shot and killed.
Sept 18 – Mendocino NF – FS K9 attacked by
growers. Suspects drop assault and high caliber rifles
while fleeing
Sept 19 – Butte County, CA – Butte County SD
deputies shoot out, 2 growers shot and killed
Sept 19 – Mendocino County, CA - 34-year-old
hacked to death with machete in marijuana garden
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'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
ONDCP Requirement
“In response to this threat, during the 2004
growing season, NDIC will conduct a limitedscope pilot project that seeks to estimate the
amount of cannabis being cultivated on public
lands in the state of California, with the eventual
goal of producing an annual scientific estimate
of total domestic cannabis cultivation and
production.”
--2004 National Drug Control Strategy
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“… a limited scope pilot project…”
 Define “public lands…” for survey
– All Federal lands, forest lands, subset
 Project will NOT touch
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Indoor cultivation
Private lands
“Non-crop lands” (deserts, steep slopes, etc)
Military lands
Native American or Indian Reservations
 Carefully scope project
– End-product boundaries
– Methodology
– Investment
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Preliminary Findings
 Over 22 million acres of NFS lands in California
 “Catch-22 Imagery” (resolution vs cost)
– Affordable sensors lack resolution
– Sensors with (possibly) adequate resolution are costly
 Vital data exist, but may require full-scale collection
 Ground truthing could be costly and complicate study
 Project requires outside technical experience and
infrastructure
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Preliminary Conclusions
 Design the highest value product using lowest risk/cost
methods
 Scope project in 2004 to fit timeline and resources
– Narrowly define “Federal” lands
– Expand scope in 2005
 Some critical work cannot begin until resources are in place
– Technical personnel
– Hardware / software / infrastructure
 Minimize ground truthing without undermining survey
credibility
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Multiple and Parallel Sources
 Replicate methodology / best
practices used by other
agencies for crop surveying
Other Data
Dept of Interior Data
Commercial Imagery
Civilian Govt Imagery
 Collect data and intelligence
from a wide range of sources
National Guard CD Data
DEA DCE/SP Data
USFS Enforcement Data
CAMP Data
 Synthesize/analyze data and
intel to determine crop
estimate and determine
overall threat to public lands
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Envisioned End Product
Content, Use, and Distribution
 Intelligence report: “Cannabis on Federal Lands
in California: Threats and Estimated Cultivation”
 Unclassified Executive Report (10 pages)
– Interagency threat assessment
– Growth/sophistication of cannabis trade on Federal lands
– Probability estimate of CA Federal lands under cannabis
cultivation
 Restricted Annex (5 pages)
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5-Phase Methodology
1. Organize and Assess Feasibility
 Define end-product
 Seek agency “buy-in”
 Determine resource needs
Scope
Project
Collect Data
DATA
2. Pre-Survey Preparation
 Define scope and methodology
 Produce Predictive Cueing Layer Model
3. Imagery Analysis and Ground Truth
Create Predictive Cueing Layer
 Plot targeted survey areas
 Conduct ground truthing in survey areas
4. Data Analysis and Final Report
 Incorporate LEA intelligence trend analysis
 Extrapolate plot surveys
 Estimate cultivation on all CA federal lands
5. Institutionalize for 2005 Survey
Plot survey areas, ground
truth, produce estimate
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Project Plan & Timeline
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Project Management
Agency Support and Functions
NDIC Director
NDIC Gen Counsel
Technical
Exchange
NDIC
Asst Director
P/T NDIC Support
GIS IA
Statistician
Non-Imagery Analysis
Publication of final report
DOI
USFS/USDA
BLM, PS
Enforcement, RSAC,
ARS, NASS
Methodology
Threat Assessment
Data collection
Remote Sensing Support
Insert roles/
responsibility
PM
Project Officer
Role/Responsibility
• Overall project mgt
• Interagency coord.
• Prepare data request
• Analytical production
• Production of report
Imagery / GIS IAs
NGB
DEA
CD, CHL
DCE/SP
Threat Assessment
Intelligence Trends
DCE/SP Data
Ground Truthing Coord
Methodology
Predictive Cueing Model
Data collection
Ground Truthing Support
Other Agencies
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Progress to Date
 Work is underway in all five phases
 Meetings with 11 agencies
– Valuable technical exchange
– Strong support at staff and management levels
– But need backing of agency leadership
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Data collection continuing in CA
NGB plotting data--Predictive Cueing model on track
Draft “Data Request” (due completion 2/28)
Draft plan / methodology
NDIC hiring GIS Analyst
Identifying core issues for resolution
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Road Ahead
Next Steps
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Acquire critical resources (personnel, work space)
Resolve legal issues
Finalize project scope, methodology, project plan
Brief ONDCP on proposed project scope/end product
Submit “data request”
Initial Support from USDA and DOI
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Offer DOI/USDA to be primary customers of end-product
GIS/Imagery Analysts (2) (USDA/RSAC)
Collect eradication data (with geo-coordinates)
Designate POC for planning team
Specific support to be requested within weeks
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