Transcript Study on Freight Transportation in Quebec

Multimodal Study on
Freight Transportation in Québec
Transportation Border Working Group
Spring 2014 Meeting
Buffalo, NY
April 8, 2014
Claude Sirois
Presentation Overview
• Objective, structure and scope of the study
• Overview of the database
• Profile of freight transportation in Québec
• Assessment of intermodality potential, methodology and
observations
• Conclusion
2
Objective of the study
• Support Sustainable Mobility Regional Plans
• Characterize current and future (2026) supply and demand
for freight transportation for all modes
• Develop and apply a methodology to assess Intermodality
Potential
• Three scales of analysis
– Québec
– Major transportation corridors (11)
– Regions (16)
3
Structure of the study
Block 1
Filling the gaps
Block 2
Exploit existing data available in
studies, DB, etc.
Targeted interviews
Long/short (MTL only)
distance trucking
Road performance
Carriers
Network and equipment
managers
Marine
Air
Rail
Integration of Block 2
Into Block 1
Shippers
MTQ staff
Block 3
Current and future (2026) multimodal
transportation profile and assessment of
Intermodality potential
Québec
11 corridors
16 regions
4
Scope and Limitations of the Study
• Aggregation of data by region
• MTQ provincial network
• Interregional freight movements
– Trucking : Interurban/interregional movements (+ 80 km)
• Different data sources and periods (2006-2010)
• Confidentiality of some information
– Rail/Air companies
– Shippers
5
Overview of the database
Physical characteristics
Capacity/Demand
Network Performance (index)
GIS
TRANSCAD
Road data (MTQ/CG studies)
Forecast 2026 (O/D Survey + other)
Tabular Data
EXCEL
SOURCES
Road Performance
Phys. Char. AADT, AADTT,
CDI, TW-CDI
+/- 2008 / Forecast 2026
290 000 truck movements
Type of Commodities
Weight/Volume
Many other informations
TRANSCAD
NRS 99 / 06-07 (MTQ/TC)
Forecast 2026 (IHS GI/MTO)
POWER PIVOT
SOURCES
Trucking
Truck/Tonnage Flows
O/D truck movements
(Desire Lines)
Physical characteristics
Current/future tonnages
Commodities (incomplete)
Network Performance
TRANSCAD
Rail Companies (interviews)
CG Studies
Forecast 2026 (IHS GI)
Mining Dev. Forecast (MRN)
EXCEL
SOURCES
Rail
Physical characteristics
Demand (flows)
Bottlenecks/issues on the network
Overview of the database
O/D Marine Database
- Tonnages
- Commodities
- Ports, country, regions
TRANSCAD
Shipping in Canada 2000-2011
(StatCan)
Other Marine Data (TC)
Forecast (IHS GI)
Mining Dev. Forecast (MRN)
Tabular Data
POWER PIVOT
SOURCES
Marine
Tonnages / Port
Flows between ports
# of Aircraft Movements
Capacity/Link
TRANSCAD
Aircraft Movements (TC)
Air Link Capacities (CFG)
Demand (RTG)
International
Airports only
Forecast (TC : 2007)
EXCEL
SOURCES
Air
Capacity (Flows)
Airplane Mov. / Airport
GIS
Profile of Québec – Geographic Scope
• 11 800 km of roads
• 7 border crossings
– 4 in QC, 3 in ON
•
•
•
•
•
6 200 km of railways
6 intermodal terminals
21 railways
31 ports
42 airports
8
Profile of Québec – Tonnages
Tonnages with an origin or
a destination in Québec
Ton-kilometre on
Québec’s road and rail networks
Marine
Rail
Road
Air - 274 000 tonnes (0,1%)
*Road mode doesn’t include truck movements
under 80 km
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Profile of Québec – Modal Flows
10
Profile of Québec – Modal Flows in corridors
11
Profile of Québec – Truck flows through border
12
Profile of Québec – Desire Lines
Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and New York
13
Profile of Québec – Empty trucks
• % of empty trucks according to the distance
Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Maine
14
Profile of Québec – Air links capacity
15
Profile of Québec – Supply Chains
• Significant presence of supply chains based on natural
resources / transformed products from natural resources
• Commodity supply chains usually favor 1 or 2 modes
Marine
Rail
Road
40 %
50 %
66 %
Minerals
Manufactured and
Miscellaneous goods
49 % 40 %
Agriculture and
Food products
61 %
Fuel and Basic
chemicals
74 %
Pulp and
Paper products
16
Profile of Québec – Modal shares
• Modal shares at the Québec / U.S. States Border
• Québec / NY+VT+ME globally : Rail 47 % / Road 53 %
57 %
43 %
20 %
44 %
56 %
80 %
Québec
–
New York
Québec
–
Vermont
Rail
Road
Québec
–
Maine
17
Profile of Québec – Forecast 2026
• Development of mining projects in Northern Québec has an
important impact on rail and marine forecasts for 2026
Annual growth rates
Annual growth rates :
Trucking
Rail
Marine
Air
Trucking :
Number of movements 2006 - 2026
Rail :
Ton-kilometre 2010 - 2026
Marine :
Handled tonnages 2010 - 2026
Air :
Handled tonnages at three international
airports 2007 - 2026
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Profile of Québec – Major Constraints
• Road congestion on the Island of
Montréal
• Utilization rates on rail lines
(passengers vs freight trains)
• Handling capacity for containers at
the Port of Montréal
• Increase of air cargo
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Intermodality Potential – Methodology
Produit
Propriétés logistiques
Valeur
Poids
Autre
contrainte
s
Vélocité
Seuil d’intermodalité par produit : distance (km)
Étape 1
Flux routier : Produit - distance (km)
Flux routier (km) > seuil du produit correspondant
Non
Oui
Flux écarté
Origine et destination extérieures au Québec
Oui
Non
Intermodalité ferroviaire
Flux écarté
Intermodalité maritime
Étape 2
Disponibilité
Potentiel aller
Potentiel retour
Potentiel retour
Potentiel global
excellent ou bon
Potentiel global
excellent ou bon
Non
Non
Oui
Analyse
détaillée
Analyse
détaillée
Flux écarté
Étape 5
Oui
Étape 4
Potentiel aller
Étape 3
• National Roadside Survey
2006-2007
• Filtering data according to
movement features
• Focus on movements which
have Québec as an origin or a
destination
• Detailed analysis of flows
with an important potential
20
Intermodality Potential – Analysis
Aggregated flows by region with
an Intermodality potential
• 17 flows = 17 440 truck
movements which represent 6%
of all moves (291 200) and 26%
of total km travelled
•No flows between 2 Québec
regions
•Montréal, Montérégie and
Québec City represent 75% of
the movements with
intermodality potential
21
Intermodality Potential – Observations
• Detailed qualitative analysis of the 17 flows (step 5) :
– Precise O/Ds, commodities, transportation equipments, etc.
• Identification of many constraints to intermodality :
– Multiple precise O/Ds
– Consolidation of goods supplied by competitors
– Short distances
– Irregular flows
– Higher delays/cost compared to trucking
– Specialized equipment non-available
22
Intermodality Potential – Observations
Additional observations…
• RAIL : Best opportunities are located where rail intermodal options already
exist (ex. between Montréal and U.S.). Non-existence of intermodal
equipments doesn’t seem to be a frequent constraint
• MARINE : No line services, insufficient volumes, closure of the St. Lawrence
Seaway during 3 months (Ontario and Midwest) and longer marine distance
(U.S. East Coast)
• TRUCKING : Choice of trucking often justified by its lower cost, more
appropriate logistics, flexibility (last minute delivery, JIT, no need for
consolidation)
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Intermodality Potential – Observations
• Global incentives might increase intermodality, however, only
a low proportion of movements have the features associated
with those types of supply chains
• Using a mode or another is an individual decision. The result
of this analysis doesn’t mean there’s no opportunity to shift
from the road mode to another one, even between 2 regions
in Québec
24
Thank you for your attention!
Questions or comments?
Claude Sirois
[email protected]
(418) 643-1772
www.mtq.gouv.qc.ca
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Additional slides
26
Overview of the database
Data Sources
Tabular information
Multimodal Mapping
Road Performance
Excel spreadsheet
Mapping
Trucking
Analytical tool (Power Pivot)
Mapping (flows)
Rail
Excel spreadsheet
Mapping
Marine
Analytical tool (Power Pivot)
Mapping (flows)
Air
Excel spreadsheet
Mapping
Overview of the database – Road Performance
Current data
•
+/- 2008
•
Updated yearly
Forecast
•
2026
•
Update TBD
Overview of the database - Trucking
Current data
•
2006-2007
•
Update TBD
Forecast
•
2016, 2026
•
Update TBD
Overview of the database - Rail
Current data
•
2010
•
Update TBD
Forecast
•
2026
•
Update TBD
Overview of the database - Marine
Current data
•
2000 - 2011
•
Updated yearly
Forecast
•
2026 (base year 2010)
•
Update TBD
Overview of the database - Air
Aircraft Movements
•
2006 - 2010
•
Yearly update
possible
Cargo Capacity
•
Week of 09/2011
•
Ponctual update
possible
Airport Data
•
Current : 2007
•
TC ceased to do
the forecast
Profile of Québec – Desire Lines
Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Vermont
33
Profile of Québec – Desire Lines
Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Maine
34
Profile of Québec – Desire Lines
Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Michigan
35