Transcript AOSS_480_L26_Closure_20080410

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 501)
Richard B. Rood
734-647-3530
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
Winter 2008
April 10, 2008
Class News
• A ctools site for all
– AOSS 480 001 W08
• This is the official repository for lectures
• Email [email protected]
• Class Web Site and Wiki
–Climate Change: The Move to
Action
–Winter 2008 Term
Rest of lectures
• April 10: Current Issues // Discussion
• April 15: Final Presentations
ROOM 2024 9:00 AM
• April 21: Submission of Final Presentation.
(.ppt and .doc) (April 24, absolute latest!)
Seeking Project Happiness
Presentation: Total time for presentation and questions is 30 minutes.
Aim for presentation of 20 minutes.
My goal, here, is something like a real world experience.
Therefore, first get the presentation “right.”
Paper: There should be an accompanying narrative to the presentation.
This should include references.
Minimally: Narrative is description of the presentation.
Target: Narrative in the spirit of executive summary, or “white paper” that the
receiver of the presentation can take away and “carry forward.”
Needs Abstract.
10 pages is a good target. If it is longer than 10 pages needs an Executive
Summary. (Due April 21, Latest April 24)
If you want to write more it is great! I’ve had as high as 60 pages by groups who
really did plan, and did, take them forward. You should feel like you have done a
good job, in the time that you have.
Readings on Local Servers
• Relevant References
– Princeton Environmental Institute: Carbon
Management Initiative
• Stabilization Wedges: Teachers Guide
– McKinsey 2007 report on the cost of greenhouse gas
– Alliance for Climate Protection (wecansolveit.org)
• $300 M effort by Al Gore
– Hansen paper on 350 ppm as target carbon dioxide
• Links throughout this lecture.
• Lectures from last year added to site
– Geo-engineering (by Phil Rasch)
– 2007 Class Lectures
Outline of Lecture
• Market based Synthesis
• Some Current Issues
• Discussions
F1A
F2A
F iA
FUEL SOURCES
F2c
F1c
GDP
ENERGY
PRODUCTION
[CO2 ]
 PCO2  LCO2
t
.
ABATEMENT
A1
POLLUTANT
F ic
A2
Ai
COST GAP
Elements of environmental pollutant market
SHARES OF
POLLUTANT CREDITS
Let’s Think about the Market
• First, to be clear, this is another version of the
continuity equation.
[CO2 ]
 PCO2  LCO2
t
PRODUCTION
LOSS
PRODUCTION
• For our problem:
– Production comes from burning fossil fuels.
– Here are the ways to reduce production
•
•
•
•
Use less energy
Consume less stuff
Shrink the economy
Find fuels that don’t emit carbon dioxide
– Don’t increase other greenhouse gases exponentially!
Production
• The real way to address the climate
change problem in the short term is to
reduce production of carbon dioxide, and
• the real way to do that is to consume less,
– which will shrink the economy.
Production
• To maintain the growth of the economy
and to address the climate change
problem must de-correlate energy
consumption from carbon dioxide
emission.
– This leads to alternative sources of energy.
Alternative energy
• According the Nathan Lewis, in the long-term there are
three known sources of adequate energy for, say, more
than a century or two.
– Nuclear energy with breeder reactors
– Solar energy, but requires new technology for efficiency and
storage
– Coal with sequestration
• Other alternative energy, while important, do not scale
with population and economic growth.
• Technology, exploration, and discovery and development
of new energy sources
Current alternative energy
COST GAP
• With the presumption that cost of alternative
energy needs to be comparable with fossil fuel
sources there needs to be some way to bridge
the cost gap.
• Personal analysis: fee or tax policy seems
reasonable to bridge this gap.
– Short term, and would help to develop a market.
Production
• In the near term, by far the most effective
way we have to reduce production of
carbon dioxide is efficiency.
– And this makes economic sense.
Efficiency
• But at this moment we have no way to really
give valuation to efficiency.
– Hence, historically, efficiency is often met with
increased consumption.
• How can this be changed?
– Cost of energy is high enough that it demands
reduction
– Efficiency is given valuation by market or policy (fee
and tax?)
• Scale to help bridge the fuel cost gap?
– Other?
United Nations Foundation: Realizing Potential of Energy Efficiency
F1A
F2A
F iA
FUEL SOURCES
F2c
F1c
GDP
ENERGY
PRODUCTION
[CO2 ]
 PCO2  LCO2
t
.
ABATEMENT
A1
POLLUTANT
F ic
A2
Ai
COST GAP
Elements of environmental pollutant market
SHARES OF
POLLUTANT CREDITS
Abatement
• What are the forms of abatement?
The abatement that we talk about
• Terrestrial sink?
– This is fragile, limited, and there is growing
evidence that it does not “grow” to address
the problem.
• That is “carbon fertilization” is less effective than
posed.
• Oceanic sink?
– Evidence of ocean “taking up less.”
Remember this curve
BAD
GOOD
Temperature
(other environmental parameter)
Abatement
• What are the forms of abatement?
• Sequestration to keep carbon dioxide out
of the atmosphere.
• Some engineered way to remove carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere.
– Think about the energy of this  requires
something “biological” to use the Sun.?
Abatement
• We don’t really have enough abatement
options to make a market.
Geo-engineering
• An alternative to mitigation, carbon dioxide
reduction, of climate change?
– What are the risks?
– References.
What do we have in the short-term?
• Are there the elements of an effective
market?
– Can we make a market?
• The portfolio of near-term, technologically
feasible reduction of carbon dioxide
emissions.
– Pacala and Socolow references
Past Emissions
The Stabilization Triangle
The Wedge Concept
Stabilization
McKinsey 2007
McKinsey 2007: Large
Some important things
• Hansen paper on 350 ppm as target
carbon dioxide
• Sarmiento paper (draft, look for it!) What’s
happening with carbon dioxide.
– Update on terrestrial and ocean sink
Some important things
• The Alliance for Climate Protection
(wecansolveit.org)
– $300 M effort by Al Gore
• McKinsey 2007 report on the cost of greenhouse
gas
– Putting cost to Pacala and Socolow
• Continuing pressure from the business
community to rationalize policy
• What’s happening with California and the EPA
Thank You
• Discussion