Transcript 3_session_Ayensu

Key findings – Climate Change
Presented by Edward S Ayensu
on 4th – 5th September, 2009
@ the UNESCO International Conference on Broadcast Media & Climate
Change: A Public Service Remit
Paris, France
Key messages
• The impacts of climate change are already being felt, and limiting
warming by 2 degrees is a minimum
• Limiting warming by 2 degrees will require 17Gt of abatement by
2020
• This will require action from developed and developing countries
• Substantial funding to the developing world (€65-100bn pa) is
required over the next ten years
• “Low carbon growth plans” are required to enable both the private
and public funding flows to developing countries
1
1
About Project Catalyst
• Initiative of the ClimateWorks Foundation, a global, non-profit philanthropic
foundation headquartered in San Francisco, California with a network
of affiliated foundations in China, India, the U.S., and the European Union
• Launched in May 2008 to provide analytical and policy support for the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
negotiations on a post-Kyoto international climate agreement
• Provide a forum where key participants in the global discussions can
informally interact, conduct analyses, jointly problem solve, and contribute
ideas and proposals to the formal UNFCCC process
• Organized in working groups: mitigation, adaptation, technology, forestry,
climate-compatible growth plans, and finance with a total of about 150
climate negotiators, senior government officials, representatives of
multilateral institutions, business executives, and leading experts from over
30 countries. Analytical support from the international consulting firm,
McKinsey & Company
2
Climate change is likely to disproportionately
affect the countries least responsible
Per capita GHG
emission
comparison1
MtCO2e per capital
World
Dev’d world
Africa
7.5
2005
16.0
3.3
8.4
2030
Droughts
Costal flooding
Climate zone
shifts
Water Scarcity
Current development issues may be worsened by climate change
North Africa
• Increased
desertification
East Africa
• Expansion
of vectorborne
disease
transmission
zone
West and
Central Africa
• Fast-urbanising
cities at risk
from coastal
flooding
17.8
2.9
1 Including emissions from land-use and forestry
SOURCE: UNFCCC; UN ESA; IEA;
Southern Africa
• Heightened water stress
3
The response to climate change must be rooted in development, but
aligned with mitigation and adaptation objectives
Development
‘Climateresilient
development’
‘Climatecompatible
development’
Mitigation
‘Climateproofed
abatement’
Adaptation
4
Scientific evidence suggests that a 450ppm CO2e pathway with overshoot gives a 40–60% probability to limit global warming to 2 degrees
Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm
Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm
Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm
Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG
stability
GtCO2e per year
Probability of
temperature
increase under
2˚C
70
60
Expected
temperature
increase
50
40
• 450ppm is
30
15-30%
3.0˚C
40-60%
2.0˚C
20
10
•
70-85%
0
2005
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2050
Source: IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, Catalyst analysis
1.8˚C
not safe – it
has a 40–
60% probability of
warming
exceeding
2 oC
Even 2oC will
require
signifi-cant
investment in
adaptation
5
17 Gt of reductions below “Business as Usual” in 2020 are required
for a 450ppm, 2°pathway
Global GHG emissions, Gt CO2e per year
75
70
70
65
61
60
55
52
-35
-17
50
45
Current
proposals*
8-11 Gt abatement
in 2020
44
40
35
450ppm pathway
(with overshoot)
0
1990
Reference
pathway
‘Business as
Usual’
2000
Change relative to 1990
Percent
2010
2020
2030
17
-7
* US – 17-28% below 2005 level by 2020; EU – 20-30% from 1990 level by 2020 (2.3 Gt); China - Reduce energy consumption per national income by 20%
between 2005–10 (0.8Gt), and again between 2010-2015; Russia - stabilise emissions at ~30% below 1990 (0.7 Gt); Brazil - Reduce deforestation rates by
70% by 2017, equivalent to 4.8b tons less CO2 emitted cumulatively (0.7 Gt); Japan - Reduce 80% by 2050 from current levels (0.7 Gt); Canada - 20%
reduction from 2006 level by 2020 (0.3 Gt); Mexico - Reduce emissions from 2002 levels by 50% by 2050 (0.3Gt), plus proposals from 12 smaller Annex 1
countries and South Korea. Assumptions have been made on timeline and pathway to calculate abatement in 2020
6
Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis
6
Sufficient opportunities exist to achieve the 17 Gt required
to reach a 450ppm pathway
McKinsey global GHG abatement cost curve, 2020* (up to costs of €60/t, excluding
transaction costs, 4% discount rate)
70
60
Solar PV
Reduced intensive agriculture conversion
Solar conc.
Organic soil restoration
Wind (high penetration)
Pastureland afforestation
Biomass
Grassland management
Wind
(low
penetration)
Reduced deforestation
50
40
30
20
10
from pastureland conversion
Reduced deforestation from
slash-and-burn agriculture conversion
Nuclear
0
-10
-20
-30
10
Rice management
Shift coal new build to gas
Electricity from landfill gas
New waste recycling
15
19 Gt
20
Abatement potential
Gt CO2e
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
Cars ICE improvement
Cars aerodynamics improvement
Retrofit building envelope (commercial)
Lighting – switch
incandescents
to LED (residential)
Breakdown by geographic
location:
• 5 Gt in developed country
geographies
• 14 Gt in developing
country geographies
Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0
Breakdown by abatement
type:
• 9 Gt for terrestrial carbon
• 6 Gt for energy efficiency
• 4 Gt for low carbon energy
supply
7
Resulting responsibilities for developed countries
Caps
Support on mitigation/
adaptation
Leadership on technology
8
Upper bound
The costs of adaptation are uncertain but are likely
to be in the tens of billions per year
Lower bound
Adaptation cost estimates,
€ bn pa, (2008 prices)
UNDP
(2007)
70
Oxfam
(2007)
41
UNFCCC
Global estimate
(2007)
World Bank
(2006)
19
0 41
36
8
27
89
99
135
34
Source: Agrawala & Fankhauser (2008); Project Catalyst
9
Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation
activities
Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t)
Cost of abatement
€ / ton
60
40
20
0
-20
*
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Abatement potential
Gt CO2e
-40
Best practice info,
capacity building,
loans
Offset market or grants
Grants and
international
cooperation
10
Including elements of adaptation, the total financing need would be
€65-100 bn per year 2010-2020
Annual financing flows requirement for developing countries
€b on average p.a. 2010–20
~65–100
~10–20
55–80
5
5–30
35
10
Incremental Higher
costs
financing
costs
Transaction Technology Total
Adaptation Total
costs
deployment financing estimate
financing
for
for
abatement
developing
countries
Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; ‘Bosetti; Carraro; Massetti; Tavoni’; UNFCCC; Project
Catalyst analysis
11
Under a 25% target for developed countries, carbon markets could
contribute significantly to developing country low carbon investment
Incremental costs paid for
by developed countries
Required abatement in 2020, Gt
Required abatement for developed country
target of 25%
Support for incremental costs
needed, e.g., concessional
loans, grants, payments
17
Potential abatement in
developing countries
5
3
6
Carbon credit purchases to
meet 25% target
Required abatement
for 450ppm pathway
Abatement feasible
within developed
countries
<60 €/t CO2e
Abatement feasible in
developing countries –
may be financed by
developed to meet
target commitments
(e.g., via CDM)
Source:McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, team analysis
Support needed for
capacity building and loans
for capital investment
where required
3
Remaining abatement
feasible in developing
countries (NPV
negative) – may be
financed by developed
countries
Remaining abatement
feasible in developing
countries (NPV
positive) – may be
supported by
developed countries
12
Climate Compatible Growth Plans (CCGPs) are a way to identify and
support developing country mitigation and adaptation actions
Focus:
Development,
mitigation +
adaptation
Time horizon: Long
term and
short/medium term
Content: Priorities,
policies/measures
and international
• support
Differentiation:
Both developing +
developed
CCGP (=climate
compatible
growth plans)
Process: Support,
best practices,
review, MRV
13
The elements of an LCGP
Topics covered by a LCGP
• National circumstances and current development plans
1
Strategic plan to assist the country in shifting its
development path to a low carbon and climate
resilient economy and achieve sustainable
development
• Assessment of vulnerability to climate change and how
future climate change will affect it
• Most recent GHG inventory
• Long-term vision for an economy with low GHG emissions
and low vulnerability to climate change
2
• Plan for specific investments in making the economy and
Based on the socio-economic and
development priorities of the country
the infrastructure less vulnerable and measures to adapt
existing infrastructure to the changing climate
• GHG mitigation plan containing:
3
Includes a strategic vision (long-term
component) as well as that specific actions to
be undertaken to get on a low carbon, climate
resilient pathway (short and medium term
component)
– Projection of GHG emissions under BAU scenario for the
most important economic sectors
– Scenario the country can achieve without assistance
– Scenario for which it would require international support.
• NAMAs and NAPA’s the country wishes to undertake
• Incremental cost of the individual NAMAs and NAPAs and
all technology, financing and capacity building support
needed to implement the plan.
14
Opportunities for leap-frogging exist which provide multiple advantages to
support African development
Solar technology provides advantages
for Africa
• Low levels of electrification in SubSaharan Africa
• Off-grid solar technology is
commercially available:
–Cost-effective in remote areas
–Faster deployment in remote areas
–More reliable
A Global Deal could . . .
• Provide funding
• Widen access to loans
• Provide technology access
• Support research
• Overcome IP barriers
• Develop institutions and
processes
–Environmental and security benefit
15