Transcript Russian state university named after I.M. Gubkin

CREATING A CONSORTIUM FOR GAS
TRANSIT
Masalkova Anastasia,
PhD student
Moscow, 28 september 2013
Slide 2
Gas import requirements - bcm
Shale gas resources - bcm
NORWAY
NEITHERLANDS
DENMARK
SWEDEN
BULGARIA
RUMANIA
HUNGARY
POLAND
UKRAINE
BRITAIN
TURKEY
FRANCE
GERMANY
Significant
gas
reserves
in the EU
is
concentra
ted in the
Netherlan
ds, France
and
Poland
SOURCE: Annual report, Ernst & Young, Shale gas in Europe: revolution or
evolution? 2012.
Slide 3
PROBLEMS
PROSPECTS
Environment
al and social
factors
Mining-geological
conditions and the
availability of resources
Mode of
taxation and
regulation
Energy
security
Demand for gas
The availability
of infrastructure
and capacity
gas-oil services
Economic growth
(government
revenue from
taxation)
Creation of new jobs
in the private sector
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas
resources in Europe
5,3
SOURCE: Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas. World
Energy Outlook. Special Report on Unconventional Gas.
OECD/IEA, 2012.
Slide 4
Annual
consumption of
14 billion cubic
meters. m, of
which only 5
billion cubic
meters produced
in Poland itself,
the reserves of
shale gas on such
a scale can fully
support the needs
of Poland's gas
for several
centuries to come
Slide 5
EVOLUTION
REVOLUTION
Geological
features
and the amount of resources
The disappointing results of the drilling
Discovered reserves are not costeffective for development
Low flow rate per well for the
continuation of production
Advances in the early stages of
exploration
Proven reserves amount is higher than
expected level
The rapid increase in production
Environmental and social
factors
Restriction / prohibition of hydraulic
fracturing the results of the study of
ecological effects
Increased public pressure
on the government to stop
development of the fields to determine
the possible consequences
Studies show
about the safety of hydraulic
fracturing on human health
and environment
Society's desire to lower prices
energy
Taxation
and regulation
The possibility of a pan-European
about regulation of shale gas
The inclusion of shale gas in the
European legislation governing the
quality of motor fuel and greenhouse
gas gases
Stimulation of individual countries
operators of shale gas
Expedited permitting process to
develop
State support for R & D in shale gas
Demand for gas
The slowdown due to measures
designed to facilitate the development
of low-carbon economy
The weakening of the European
economy
Increasing demand for natural gas for the
purpose of its
Frequency power generation
The role of gas as a source of
intermediate
energy for the transition to a low-carbon
based economy
Opportunities in the field
infrastructure
and commercial services
Deficiency of essential equipment
and qualified personnel
Lack of funds for investment in new
gas infrastructure facilities
Fast adaptation of commercial
segment services to the needs of the
shale gas sector
Cost reduction under the influence of
technology
Slide 6
Slide 7
Bcm
imports in the
form of LNG
import pipeline
from Algeria
imports from
Norway pipeline
imports from
Russia
house
production
demand for gas
in the EU
Bcm
Scenario production of shale gas in the
EU by 2035
Source: Compiled on the basis of BP Statistical Review of
World Energy 2012.
maximum
medium
Source: based on IEA report 2012
minimum
maximum
Slide 8



Companies in the consortium retain their economic
and legal independence;
The goal of the consortium is to join efforts for the
implementation of specific investment projects, the
implementation of sciences - and capital projects;
Parties to the consortium agreement can serve a
variety of subjects of investment activity,
regardless of the extent of their participation in
the project (investors, public authorities, suppliers,
contractors, architects, insurance companies,
consulting firms and other participants).
Slide 9
Strong points:
Weak points:
The presence of significant resources SG in Europe.
SG is currently characterized by low-impact, it is
necessary to drill more wells at a closer distance
than conventional gas production.
EU - the second largest gas market in the world (the
demand for gas in 2011 amounted to 447.9 billion
cubic meters) - according to the BP Statistical
Review.
The presence of gas pipeline infrastructure in the EU.
All of this is expensive.
Shale gas resources in the EU are characterized by a
low degree of scrutiny and thus low reliability.
SHALE GAS
Capabilities:
Possible measures of the state to support and stimulate the
development of the SG (tax breaks and other incentives).
The presence of unconventional gas resources in importdependent Europe is having a positive impact on the image of
natural gas, and thereby contribute to the strengthening of the
role of gas in the energy balance of the EU.
Country completely dependent on natural gas imports have
added impetus to the development of unconventional gas
production
Bluster:
A possible refusal of states to measures to support and
stimulate the development of the SG (no tax breaks and other
incentives).
The protests of the local population in some European
countries against the use of hydraulic fracturing.
The legislative ban on the use of hydraulic fracturing (in
France, Bulgaria).
Slide 10
THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION