Transcript Economía Política de las Investigaciones AD en

The Political-Economy of
Antidumping and Safeguards in
Argentina
World Bank
December 6, 2005
Order of Presentation
•
•
•
•
•
•
1989-1994 Trade liberalization
Macroeconomic background.
Legislative reforms.
Institutional reforms.
Effectiviness of liberal AD provisions.
Lessons.
Trade Liberalization
Third attempt.
One component of an ambitious reform program.
Measures:
- 70% reduction in average mfn tariffs.
- Elimination of most NTBs.
- Elimination for intra-Mercosur trade barriers.
- Significat reduction of export taxes.
- Elimination of export subsidies for manufactured
exports.
Response to Trade Liberalization and other
Structural Reforms
Argentina's Aggregate Trade Flows (millions of U$S )
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
-10000
Source: INDEC.
Balance
Export
Import
Macroeconomic Background
GDP Growth Rate
15
10
5
%
0
-5
-10
-15
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
From 1995 to 2003, unemployment remained above
15%.
Macroeconomic Background
Convertibility and Currency Overvaluation
Dollar Real Exchange Rate, 1985- 2002
350
300
250
RER 200
150
100
50
0
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Source: Author's elaboration.
Early Forecasts
• Under accelerated import growth, demand for
safeguards and AD protection would increase.
• Intra-regional trade liberalization would add to the
pressures for import relief.
An effective policy of containing protectionist
pressures required that the new AD legislation be
supportive of mantaining an open economy.
Policy reform should also ensure that the new
instruments would not be hijacked by
protectionist interests.
Reforming Legislation
Steps:
• Initially adhering to the GATT AD and CVD
Codes and later, implementing the WTO
agreements.
• Administrative regulations: Government vs.
Industrialists positions.
• The outcome is a legislation that signals
preference for:
–
–
–
–
–
Lesser duty.
Market prices.
Measure that minimize uncertainties to exporters.
Short duration.
Prospective measures.
Institutional Reform
• Lessons from injury and dumping investigations in
final determinations.
• Salient characteristics of the Comisión Nacional
de Comercio Exterior (CNCE):
– Selection of technical staff.
– Decision-making mechanism (President and four
Commissionares).
• Binding decisions.
• The issue of institutional independence.
Outcomes
Number of AD Initiations and GDP Growth (%): 19952003
8,1
No. of Cases
35
5,5
30
8,4
35
10
5
3,9
27
25
25
20
-2,9
24
15
24
0
-0,5
-3,4
-4,4
14
-5
14
10
5
-10,9
4
-10
4
0
-15
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Changes in GDP (%)
40
Outcome of Investigations
Injury Determinations
Injury Determinations in AD Investigations: 1995- 2004
1995 – 1998
Stage *
P
N
1999 – 2004
%N
P
N
1995-2004
%N
P
N
%N
Preliminary
18
7
28.0
45
2
4.5
63
9
12.5
Final**
21
14
40.0
64
3
4.5
85
17
16.7
*: P = positive, N = negative and, %N= percent negative.
Under recession and currency overvaluation the value of a technical
approach in AD investigations was eroded.
In 2001 at the peak of overvaluation and recession, tariffs on consumer
goods were raised to the WTO bound levels.
Outcome of Investigations
Target Industries and Countries
Argentina’s Anti-Dumping Investigations by Target Country; 1995-2004
China
Brazil
Number of
Industry
Investigations*
14
11
60
Steel & Steel Products
2
1
22
Chemicals
0
1
6
Textiles & Textile Products
1
1
8
Plastic & Plastic Products
0
5
15
Electrical Equipment
0
3
6
Processed Foods
2
1
5
Machinery & Non-Electrical
Equipment
0
1
10
Wood & Paper Products
1
0
5
Rubber & Rubber Products
10
2
15
Consumer Durables
4
5
14
Others
Total
166
31
34
United
States
0
7
0
0
1
0
0
Europe*
Others
% Brazil
18
9
0
0
4
0
0
17
3
5
6
5
3
2
18.3
4.5
16.7
12.5
33.3
50.0
20.0
0
0
0
1
6
1
2
2
3
3
1
2
10.0
0.0
13.3
35.7
9
42
50
18.7
Source: Author’s elaboration based on Annex 1.
Note: Brazil and China accounted for 39% of AD investigations.
Lessons
• Liberalization and contingent protection: unlike
past experiences, the latest liberalization program
has been only partially reversed by AD and
safeguard measures.
• Value of WTO regulations and bifurcated
mechanism: enhance transparency to the process
of adopting protection measures.
• Liberal AD regulations: While the economy was
growing, they reduced the number and impact of
protectionist measures.
Lessons
• Political determination: impact on AD petitions
until 1995 when the Customs Code regulations
were superseded by WTO (69/135 petitions
initiated).
• Overvaluation: a misaligned exchange rate makes
it impossible to sustain a technical approach in
antidumping investigations.
• Devaluation: for many if not most sectors,
devaluation provided higher degrees of import
relief than contingent protection measures.