Transcript Slide 1
Danica Popović Faculty of Economics and Center for Liberal-Democratic Studies WTO: four principles, not just one Lepenski vir, 14-16 april 2005. Developments in Serbian foreign trade, 1965-2004. $ mlrd Izvoz, uvoz i spoljnotrgovinski bilans 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 1965 uvoz izvoz spoljnotrg. deficit esourcegap 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Pathological developments in trade shares, 1989-2004 Table 2.1.1. *) Trade share in GDP Actual trade in 1989 Import content Export share Total trade share 48 42 90 Foreign Interrepublican 19 17 36 29 25 54 Trade shares (% GDP) in small open economies 40-60 40-60 80-120 Actual Trade shares 1998 2004** 26.2 15.5 41.7 52 22 74 Source: Economic Developments in FR Yugoslavia, for 1989; own calculus based on FSE data onwards *) comprises goods and non-factor services; **) including trade with former Yugoslav republics; figures are comparable with the sum of first two columns of the Table . Low exports, but low import shares also EXPORT AND IMPORT SHARES GNFS, 2003. Serbia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Slovakia Belgium 0 20 40 Source: WB, Country data prof ile 2003 60 80 100 Public opinion on liberalization The hostile and excessive liberalization Largest liberalization in the region EU and WTO are too far away … Tariff averages in Serbia, 2000-2005 Unweighted 2000 2001 2003 2000 14.43 9.48 7.5 9.71 Source: Federal Statistical Office, mimeo. Weighted 2001 7.5 2003 6.1 Tariff Averages in Western Balkans, 2002 Unweighted Weighted Bands Albania 8.1 n.a 2,10,15 BIH 6.8 n.a 0,5,10,15* Croatia 7.0 7.0 100+ rates ** ** Serbia 9.5 (7.5 ) 7.5 (6.1 ) 1,5,10,15,20,30 Kosovo 10.0 10.0 Uniformna stopa ** Montenegro 3.0 (6.1 ) n.a 1,3,5,10,15 * for 250 agricultural products (HS) ** as of 2003. Solution Export-led growth FDIs Fascilitating exports? Changes in exchange-rate policy? Creating competitive environment? The Government potentials Influence of lobbying groups Domestic New lobbying groups FDIs EU and WTO The need for WTO principles … 4 principles, not just one 1. 2. Freer trade, tarification and reducing tariffs Non-discrimination, MFN exemptions 3. 4. Free Trade Agreements (FTA) Generalized System of Preferences Barriers against products which are unfairly traded Transparency and predictable policies Encouraging competition Coordination and preparation To identify the authorities or institutions within a country that will oversee application and ensure compliance with WTO rules and requirements Policies that violate WTO principles have to be identified and repealed. This set of principles, are not just rules but a way of thinking that must adopted and implemented by governments in all areas of activity (economic, regulatory, etc.). If foreign trade is the only area being subjected to this set of principles—trade liberalization will not have the effect that WTO Member countries anticipated That is the main reason why trade liberalization of some countries accomplished through WTO accession did not result in those results predicted by conventional economic wisdom. Kada je ko ušao u WTO... Applicat countries ion 09/1996 EU accession Bulgaria (excluding Baltics) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Baltic countries Estonia 03/1994 Latvia 11/1993 Lithuania 01/1994 Other European countries southeastern Albania 11/1992 Bosnia and 05/1999 Croatia 09/1993 Herzegovina Macedonia, FYR 12/1994 Yugoslavia 01/2001 Membership 12/1996 04/1993 (GATT) 09/1973 (GATT) 10/1967 (GATT) 11/1971 (GATT) 04/1993 (GATT) 10/1994 (GATT) 11/1999 02/1999 05/2001 09/2000 11/2000 Applicati Membership Commonwealth of Independent States on Armenia 11/1993 Azerbaijan 07/1997 Belarus 09/1993 Georgia 07/1996 06/2000 Kazakhstan 01/1996 Kyrgyz Republic 01/1996 12/1998 Moldova 11/1993/ 07/2001 Mongolia 07/1991 01/1997 Russian Federation 06/1993 Tajikistan 05/2001 Turkmenistan Ukraine 11/1993 Uzbekistan 12/1994 East Asia Cambodia 12/1994 China 07/1986 The Lao PDR 07/1997 Viet Nam 01/1995 Creating a new public opinion 10 common misunderstandings about the WTO 1. WTO dictates? 2. Blindly for trade? 3. Neglects developoment? 4. Anti-green? 5. Anti-health? 6. Wrecks jobs? 7. Small left out? 8. Tool of lobbies? 9. Weak forced to join? 10. Undemocratic?