Transcript What does sustainability mean?

Decoupling resource use
from wellbeing to support
decarbonization
Prof. Mark Swilling
Stellenbosch University
2
International Resource
Panel
4
Sustainable Development
Goals on resources
• SDG 8.4 - decoupling economic growth & natural
resource use
• SDG 2 (ending hunger – food)
• SDG 6 (providing water and sanitation)
• SDG 7 (ensuring access to energy)
• SDG 11 (making sustainable resource efficient cities)
• SDG 12 (promoting sustainable consumption and
production)
• SDG 13 (combating climate change)
• SDG 14 (conserving the oceans)
• SDG 15 (protecting and restoring terrestrial resources)
5
all 5 previous global growth periods were
able to access cheap primary resources
?????
2011-2013
Source: IRP 2016
Source: IRP 2016
Decoupling:
resource & impact
Resource decoupling
Human well-being
Economic activity (GDP)
Resource use
Environmental impact
Impact decoupling
Source: IRP 2016
(Source: IRP)
(Murray and Kind, Nature January 2012)
World Oil Exports
Source: US Energy Information
Administration (EIA)
14
Source: REN 2106
Green Energy Impact
• Green Energy Choices: The Benefits, Risks
and Trade-offs of Low-Carbon
Technologies for Electricity Production
• wind, PV, CSP, hydro and geothermal
power generate GHG emissions over the
life cycle of less than 50gCO2e per kWh
• coal-fired power plants: 800-1000gCO2e
per kWh over the life cycle
But….
• RE would result in an increased demand
for steel, cement and copper in
comparison to the continuation of the
business-as-usual fossil fuel
• plus increased use of rare earth metals
such as indium and tellerium
The Economist
changes its tune
32%
19
20
Africa’s core challenge
Given that 80% of exports are primary resources,
future development depends on re-investment
of resource rents in:
• human capital development
• infrastructure
• sustainability-oriented technological innovation
• restoration of renewable resources - water, soils,
biomass (incl biodiversity)
• urbanization
Source: Africa Progress Panel report, 2015
Source: Africa Progress Panel report, 2015
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Rwanda
Quarzazate (wa-za-zat), Morrocco
Lagos BRT
Light rail in Addis
Tigray, Ethiopia
TiT
Suame Magazine, Ghana
National – SA case
“…secure ecologically sustainable
development and use of natural
resources while promoting
justifiable economic and social
development.”
Section 24 (b) of the Constitution
(Source: Padayachee, 2011)
Resource constraints to
growth: SA case
• Water: 98% of available water allocated, yet
growth rates coupled to water use rates
• Coal use for energy estimated to grow by 60%
by 2020, yet estimates of peak production are
2007 (Patzek & Croft 2010), 2012 (Mohr &
Evans 2009), 2020 (Hartnady 2010)
• Govt estimate of reserves: from 50 bt – 28 bt
(2003); possibly only 10bt (Hartnady)
Critical Sub-Dependencies
Economic
Growth
Oil 20%
Coal 70%
Other
10%
+ 40% of all electricity consumed attributed
to: mining, traction, basic chemicals/refined
fuels, non-metallic mineral processing, basic
iron & steel production, ferro-allows & nonferrous metals
REI4P
• alternative to REFIT, launched in 2011
• from nearly zero to over R190 b in 4 years –
most rapid growth rate in the world, nearly 5%
of GDP, major job creator
• Managed by the IPP unit in DOE
• 4 bidding rounds: Dec ‘11, May ‘12, Nov ‘13,
April/June 2015 (+ Nov)
• June 2015: 6327 MW in 92 projects approved,
37 connected by end 2015 (1827MW)
• R50 billion plus into socio-economic
development
Can SA be more ambitious?
• What are the cost implications of increasing RE
from 10% (IRP) to 25% of total power
• modelled life cycle cost per kWh of all energy
generation technologies by 2030
• whole grid approach (geographical, distribution
capacity), hourly intervals for whole year
• life cycle cost = capex + opex + fuel
• Actual plant behaviour: ramp rate, turndown
limit, availability (maintenance) & technologyspecific characteristics
Scenarios to 2030 in MW
IRP
IRP Update WWF
Wind
9200
4360
14000
PV
8400
9770
10000
City PV
0
0
7000
CSP
1200
3300
8000
Coal
40995
38680
36230
Nuclear
11400
6660
1800
CCGT
2370
3550
4000
OCGT
7330
7680
7680
Pumped Storage
2900
2900
2900
Hydro
4809
3690
3690
Other
915
760
760
Total
89519
81350
96060
Summary of Primary Performance and Cost
IRP
IRP Update
WWF
Power
fraction % Power
fraction % Power
fraction %
(TWh)
(TWh)
(TWh)
Annual demand
454.7
0.99
409.1
0.98
407
0.99
Wind
26.2
0.06
12.4
0.03
39.9
0.1
Utility PV
14.3
0.03
16.6
0.04
17
0.04
City PV
0
0
0
0
10.8
0.03
CSP
4.5
0.01
11.9
0.03
36.1
0.09
Total RE
45
0.1
40.9
0.1
103.8
0.25
Hydro
29.2
0.06
22.8
0.05
22.8
0.06
Coal
245.2
0.53
254.6
0.61
245.7
0.6
Nuclear
93
0.2
54.3
0.13
14.7
0.04
CCGT
15.1
0.03
21.5
0.05
19
0.05
OCGT
25.3
0.06
16.4
0.04
2.1
0.01
Pumped storage
6.6
0.01
5.6
0.01
3.1
0.01
Annual Actual
459.4
416
411.1
Shortfall
4.1
0.6
0
System cost (R/kWh)
R 2.32
R 1.04
R 0.67
OUR CHALLENGE AS AFRICANS: WILL WE INVEST IN
THE CAPITAL INTENSIVE CENTRALISED
19TH/20TH TECHNOLOGIES AND MISS THE NEXT
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LIKE WE MISSED THE
POST-WWII ECONOMIC BOOM?
OR WILL WE RECOGNISE THAT WE ARE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY AND RESPOND
APPROPRIATELY?
MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES UNDERSTAND THIS
DO WE?