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The 5th CSIR Conference, Pretoria, South Africa
October 9, 2015
Exploring missing links
between nature and economy
through sustainable
development goals (SDGs)
Pushpam Kumar
Chief, Ecosystem Services Economics,
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Embracing SDGs
“A universal, integrated and transformative
vision for a better world”
------UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon
“The present time invites us to give priority
to actions which generate new processes in
society so as to bear fruit in significant and
positive historical events.”
---------Pope Francis
1. SDGs and Natural Capital:
SDG 1 – Poverty & Natural Capital
• 75 percent of the world’s poorest countries are located
in Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 34 percent
of the world's extreme poor ($1.25 or less).
• Desertification threatens agricultural production on
marginal rain-fed agricultural lands exacerbating
poverty and undermining economic development.
SDG 8 – Inclusive, Sustainable Economic
Growth & Environment
1. Moving global agriculture towards sustainable practices
is projected to stimulate 200 million jobs across the food
production system
2. Reduce GHG emissions from deforestation, curb
overexploitation of natural resources, replace
ecologically-harmful inputs with ecologically sourced,
balanced alternatives.
SDG 11, 12 – Resilient Cities, Sustainable
Living & Environment
1. Sustainable Consumption and Production lifecycles;
Resource efficiency
2. Decoupling environmental degradation from
economic growth
3. Africa is the most rapidly urbanizing region of the
world; Two-thirds of Africa`s projected total
population of 2.5 billion people will require urban
services by 2063, and Africa needs to be ready
SDG 13 – Climate Change & Natural Capital
1. No continent will be struck as severely by the impacts of
climate change as Africa.
2. By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa
are projected to be exposed to increased water stress
due to climate change.
3. Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level
rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large
populations.
4. By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land
in Africa is projected under a range of climate scenarios
(TS).
5. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10%
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Natural Capital in SDG 14 and 15
1. SDG 14: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas
and marine resources for sustainable development
2. SDG 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of
terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests,
combat desertification, and halt and reverse land
degradation and halt biodiversity loss
2. Conclusive Messages of SDGs
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
People, Planet and Prosperity (3 Ps)
Interconnectedness of goals
Integrated and indivisible
Decoupling of growth and resilience of
natural capital
3. BAU needs rethinking: Growth
unsustainable in SS Africa
Gross domestic product based on
purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per
capita GDP
Adjusted savings: natural
resources depletion (% of GNI)
Adjusted savings: natural resources depletion: Natural resource depletion is the sum of net forest depletion,
energy, and mineral depletion. Net forest depletion is unit resource rents times the excess of
round wood harvest over natural growth. Energy, and mineral depletion is the ratio of the value of
the stock of energy, and mineral resources to the remaining reserve lifetime (25 years).
Land Degradation
Dwindling Natural Capital FOREST
Biodiversity Loss
4.Change the Compass: Rely on
Inclusive Wealth not Income
14
Growth in GDP and Wealth (in %)
124 of 140 countries
experienced a
positive growth in
GDP
86 of 140 countries
experienced a positive
growth in wealth
15
Consuming Beyond Their Means
When TFP, climate change and increases in oil prices are factored in Only 58 of
140 countries experienced a positive growth in Wealth
Growth in Adjusted Inclusive Wealth index
16
Key drivers: Natural capital depletion; Population growth,
and negative growth rates in TFP.
Changes in IW per capita (1992-2010)
GDP up
50% in
two
decades
Percentage change with respect to 1992
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
IWI: only an
‘anemic’ 6%
in those
years
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
Year
17
IWI per capita
PC per capita
NC per capita
GDP per capita
HC per capita
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-0.4
5. Restoration is Good: Land
Management Pays
Value of Cereal crop loss (Mill.
of USD/year) due to erosion
induced NPK loss (Value of
Production Loss)
Region
2002-2004
2010-2012
Benefit Cost
ratio over 15
years (of SLM)
BCR
East Africa
7260
22063
4.00
Central Africa
2573
5816
4.62
North Africa
9133
36738
26.35
South Africa
5841
5615
3.16
West Africa
17348
40061
5.45
Africa Total
6.58
6. Paradigm Shift: we can do better!
 Internalise cost, making damage unbearable
 Demonstrate and capture contribution of nature to
economy
 Link natural capital with structure of macroeconomy
 Encourage green innovation and diffusion of know
how
 Measure Progress, move beyond GDP
Thanks!
[email protected]
[email protected]