Transcript 2013.07.01_reykjavikppt

Patterns of
Conflict and
Cooperation in
Northern Europe
Prof. Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas
Vytautas Magnus University (Kaunas)
Plan
Small states
 What can a small state do in the EU?
 The role of regions in the EU
 Conflict and Cooperation
in Northern Europe

What is a small state?
Conceptions of Small States
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Treaty of Vienna
19th Century (1815-1915)
Small states are all that are not
considered 6 Great Powers
(Germany, Great Britain, France,
Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy)
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
20th Century
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
Number of states kept rising
Small states were all those states that
were not great powers and that were not
consistently insisting on being referred to
as middle powers (Australia, Canada)
Traditionalist view of small states
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1) are not able to preserve their own
autonomy in the face of force;
2) have a narrow range of action;
3) have little to say about which games are
being played and how;
4) have only a small stake in the system
and are unable to act for its sake.
What makes a small state?

The problems looming for each nation are
determined by objective factors of territory
size, geography, climate and habitat; but
also by political features of the
neighbourhood and larger region, the
level and direction of economic
development, and human and societal
factors including population movements
and tourism
Small states are defined in
relational terms
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Being a small state is tied to a specific historical
and geographic context, not a general
characteristic of the state.
Small state is not defined by indicators such as
its absolute population size or size of GDP.
a small state is defined by being the weak part in
an asymmetric relationship.
small states in Europe share features involving
the small scale of material and human
resources, and thus limited options in both
military and non-military security provision.
What do small states usually do?
How the small state can best hope to protect its
territorial integrity, political sovereignty, national
identity and freedom of action?
 3 dimensions: military/strategic, economic, and nonmilitary
 Two broad strategic options:
a defensive posture focused on autonomy and avoiding
trouble, as neutrality;
or a proactive posture: cooperative schemes (national and
international partnerships, organizations, regional and
global activism)
 small state is prima facie more prone than the average to
seek solutions through external engagement and
partnership

Determining the Size of a State

Traditional Criteria:
 Population
 Territory
 GDP
 Military
Capacity

New Criteria
 Fixed
Size
 Sovereignty Size
 Political Size
 Economic Size
 Perceptual Size
 Preference Size
New Criteria

Domestic and International Evaluation

Action Competence


Ability to formulate and implement policies domestically
or internationally
Vulnerability

The degree to which a state is domestically or
internationally vulnerable
New Criteria

Fixed Size
Population Size
 Territorial Size


Sovereignty Size
Domestic control and legitimacy
 Domestic state structure
 Foreign perception of state sovereignty

New Criteria

Political Size


Military capability determined by spending and
sophistication
Administrative capability:

Size of bureaucracy and foreign service
New Criteria

Perceptual Size
Domestic and international actors’ perceptions of
the state’s size
 Six features:

Views of the domestic political elite
 Views of the electorate
 The views of domestic actors
 Thoughts of other states’ political elite
 International organizations’ perceptions (such as IGOs)
 Other international perceptions (such as those of
NGOs)

National Preferences on the EU are
Affected by
•
•
•
•
Left-Right Government
Legacies of World War II
Income from the EU Budget
People’s Attitudes Towards the EU
What can a small state to in the EU?
Objective and Subjective Factors
 Objective: Institutional structure, norms and
rules, state power (population, size, vallue
added, geopolitical location)
 Subjective: Country’s political, social and
economic practices, persuasive ideas, valid
demands, reliability, consistency
 Small states can upload if they employ
subjective criteria and find COALITION
PARTNERS IN THEIR REGION AND BEYOND
Cleavages in the EU
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No Permanent Coalitions – Depends on
Question, still…
North-South
Big-Small
Atlantic-Continental
Free Trade-Protectionism
Givers-Takers
How can one study regions?
Inside -out
 Outside –in
 Region-building

Inside-out approaches highlight possibilities
for cooperation.
Outside-in approaches are often predicated
on the continuous possibilities for conflict
within the region.  theorists may combine
two approaches without giving a priori
preference to any one of them.
Inside-out theories tend to postulate a
plethora of actors on the societal level.
Outside-in theories tend to concentrate on the
levels of the system and of states
Region building

Region – building approach feeds on two specific insights
offered by students of genealogies.

 First , the focus on the politically constitutive and
politically motivated clash of definitions,  which is not a
one – off incident, but rather a perpetual process.

Secondly the proposed method of enquiry.  Rather than
seeing discourse as reflective of some external political
reality, these authors see it as politically constitutive.

 Region are defined in term of speech acts  they are
talked and written into existence.
Sub-topics
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What is Baltic?
Nordic Identities
Nordic-Baltic Region?
Russia and the Baltics
Eastern Dimension
Baltic Sea Strategy
Define Baltic
What is “Baltic”?

The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of
awareness than of geography, but that awareness has
to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to
dog the states formerly under Soviet domination,
whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile
sense of regional community. There is much to be
done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new
millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who
study the region (Kirby 1999).
Baltics in the



st
21
century
No more ‘Eastern Europe’
Wanna be Northern Europe – opinion polls,
branding
UK-Nordic (Baltic) dimension (EPINE)
Regional trajectories in the Baltics

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Quantification of narratives
4 main regions: Baltic, Northern, Baltic sea, Central (and
Eastern) Europe
Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before
and after 2004
70
60
Lithuania
Lativa
56
58
51
Estonia
50
40
30
20
20
17
20
13
16
10
9
7
10
23
0
CEE
Baltic se a
Norde n
60
56
Lithuania
50
Baltic
54
50
Latvia
Es tonia
40
30
20
25
22
18
15
12
10
20
11
13
4
0
CEE
Baltic Sea
Norden
Baltic
State self-affiliation to the region
before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement
Lithuania
Central (and Medium
Eastern) Europe
Baltic sea Medium→
Low
Norden High
Baltic High
Latvia
Estonia
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
High→
Medium
High
High
High
Compatibility of regional images before and
after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement
Compatibility
Common
Denominator
Modern/Postmo
dern
Central (and
Eastern)
Europe
Medium→Low
Soviet Past, Freedom,
NATO/EU
membership→
Soviet Past
Modern
Baltic sea
High→Medium
Soft Security
Modern/
Postmodern
Medium
Political and economic
Partnership
Place in Northern
Europe
Modern
Norden
Baltic
High
Soviet Past, Freedom,
NATO/EU membership
→Security Problems,
Political Partnership,
Baltic Tigers
Modern
What is Nordic?
Summing Up

Nordic: Common denominator: Nordic is defined
as a welfare system and a role of the state in
public policy.

Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different
geographical region not; the Baltic states are not
mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic
Sea Region.
BVP per Capita
1997
2000
2004
2008
2009
2010
2011
Relative GDP per capita
EU-27
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
EU-15
115
115
113
111
110
110
100
Estonia
42
45
57
68
64
64
67
Latvia
35
37
46
56
52
51
58
Lithuania
39
39
50
61
55
57
66
Denmark
133
132
126
120
121
127
125
Finland
110
117
116
117
113
115
114
Sweden
124
128
126
122
118
123
127
Norway
147
165
165
192
176
181
186
Iceland
137
132
131
124
118
111
111
PPS
Rapid fall in GDP
15
10
5
Lithuania
Latvia
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Estonia
Denmark
-5
Finland
Sweden
-10
EU-27
-15
Find us @
-20
www.tspmi.lt
facebook.com/TSPMI
Growth of unemployment
25
20
Lithuania
15
Latvia
Estonia
Denmark
10
Finland
Sweden
EU-27
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Decrease of inflation
18
16
14
12
Lithuania
10
Latvia
8
Estonia
6
Denmark
Finland
4
Sweden
EU-27
2
0
2006
-2
-4
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
15
Rapid restoration of current account
balance (% of GDP)
10
5
0
Lithuania
2006
-5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Latvia
Estonia
Denmark
-10
Finland
Sweden
-15
-20
-25
EU-27
90
... and growing state debts, % of GDP
80
70
60
Lithuania
Latvia
50
Estonia
40
Denmark
Finland
30
Sweden
EU-27
20
10
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Rank
Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
10
Lithuania
20
Latvia
Estonia
30
Denmark
Sweden
40
50
60
Finland
Two Groups: Baltics are New Nordic?
Similarities, differences and challenges
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‘Go Norden!’ in politics
NB as a means, not goal per se
Baltic as Nordic: UN distribution, historical links, Nordic
Assistance, NIB, no historical complexes, NB6(8), Nordpool
Similarities: small, dynamic, norm entrepreneurs, party systems,
sound public finances, political economic partnership, FDIs
Differences: Welfare state, Human rights, Underdeveloped West,
antiimigration, consensus democracies, euroscepticism, gender
equality
Challenges: Financial, lack of knowledge, identity related,
modern-postmodern
Russia and the Baltic States
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Russia is essential for the region
Russia does not focus on BSR cooperation
Desecuritisation is not a Fact yet
National identity in Russia focus on the USSR
Clash of identities and principles in the BSR
Unfriendly countries to Russia, %
2005
2006
2006
2006
2010
2011
2012
2013
US
23
37
35
45
26
33
35
38
Georgia
38
44
46
62
57
50
41
33
Latvia
46
46
36
35
36
35
26
21
Lithuania
42
42
32
35
35
34
25
17
Estonia
32
28
60
30
28
30
23
16
Ukraine
13
27
23
41
13
20
15
11
Fears and Concerns:
Russian embargoes of energy and food
supplies for many countries (Lithuania,
Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Poland,
Moldova, Georgia, Czech Republic), cyber
attacks, war with Georgia, unresolved
homicide abroad (UK) and at home, control of
media and elections, violation of human
rights, destruction of political opponents and
business circles, spread of propaganda and
revision of history, Putin 2.0, Pussy Riot.
Magnitsky.
Emergence of the BSR
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No BSR during Cold War
Role of CBSS
EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region
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BSS focuses on soft security
No more funding, institutions or legislation
Positive aspects: highest political attention in the EU, Need for
dialogue with Russia after 8/8/8 and inclusion of Belarus
Old stories: BSS like CBSS focuses on low politics, similarity to
ND
Liberal approach with the stress on cooperation in low politics
and postmodern daydreaming about a wider security
community of tomorrow in BSR (EU’s logic)
BSS Challenges
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No BSR identity yet
Economic crisis and resource drain
Bilateralism
Tensions with Southern Dimension and Mediterranean
(enlargements, ND, 600 mio euro for Eastern Partnership)
Modern and postmodern cleavage
Russia’s preference on ND than BSS
Competitive synergy: overlapping agendas and absence of
division of cooperative functions
Competition between CBSS and ND