Transcript Steps to a Sustainable Baltic Sea Region

Steps to a
Sustainable
Baltic Sea Region
Lars Rydén
Director
Baltic University Programme
Uppsala University
www.balticuniv.uu.se
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Something New Under the Sun
John McNeill, 2000
Development 1900 – 2000
• global population 4 x
• global economy 14 x
• industrial production 40 x
• energy use 16 x
• carbon dioxide emissions 17 x
• sulphur dioxide emissions 13 x
• ocean fishing catches 35 x
• number of pigs 9 x
• forests 0.8 x
• agricultural fields 2 x
• blue whale 0.0025 x
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The Baltic Sea region development
• Energy budget
• Fishing in the Baltic Sea
• Forest production
6-8 x
4-6 x ?
2-4 x ?
TWh
Swedish
energy budget
1900-2000
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Development!
1800
1900
From
Joachim Spangenberg
Sustainable Europe
Research Institute
2000
4
Development!
From
Wackernagel and Reese
authors of the ecological footprint concept
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How much space do we have?
- Surface area analysis - footprints
a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed
- Material flows analysis
a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed
- Energy flows analysis
linked to material flows
But in industrial countries this makes
a factor of close to ten !
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Do we see changes at
the turn of the millennium ?
Population
Growth rate is decreasing since about 1994
Energy flows
Globally a steady increase continues
Economic expansion
Globally a steady increase continues
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How are the countries
in the world doing?
International rankings on
Sustainability in the world
place the Nordic countries in
the top 5 and the Baltic States
in the top 20. Russia and
Poland is lagging behind.
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The Baltic Sea region has a
special possibility to be a
leader in the path towards a
sustainable future.
But there is much left to be
done!
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The problem of coupling or linking
Economy is coupled to material flows
In industrial economies GDP is coupled to resources
flows. However, in the west a significant increase in
GDP/resource flow is seen in since 1970s.
But this gain is offset by an increased per capita
consumption, the so called rebound effect.
In addition 98 % of the products in Europe are ending up
as waste today. Linear flows dominate.
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Resource flow/GDP as
CO2 emissions 1970-2000
From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg
and Karlsson, Chalmers University
of Technology, 2002 based on IEA
statistics
EU-15
Sweden
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How to achieve decoupling ?
The service economy
We need to de-materialise the economy
The recycling society
We have to recycle the resources
The solar society
We have to de-carbonise the energy flows
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How to approach the problem ?
1. Basic – material or energy flows
2. Sectors – industry, agriculture etc,
3. Societal framework – legal framework, governance
4. Personal – lifestyle, ethics
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We will look at four
problem areas
1. Energy
2. Transport
3. Urbanisation
4. Demography
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1. ENERGY
Current developments
- Globally - energy consumption is increasing
- Baltic Sea Region – slow increase; during periods constant
- Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels
- Today we use in the west about 100 energy slaves per person
Tendencies for the future:
• Coal is used less
• Gas is used more
• Transport sector consumption is increasing
No serious efforts to out-phase fossils
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Costs of using fossil fuels
•
•
•
•
•
•
Non-renewable resources are used
Climate effect, global warming
Acidification
Eutrophication
Air pollution
Pollution with heavy metals
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The carbon content of the energy
From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University
of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics
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The peak oil dilemma
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The peak oil dilemma
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Alternative energy developments 1.
Housing sector (About 30 %
of energy budget)
-
Energy efficient houses more common
Biomass in increasing
Heat pumps increasing in Sweden
Solar panels slowly increasing
Value of increased efficiency
19 BSEK in Sweden alone
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Alternative energy developments 2.
Industry sector (About 30 % of
energy budget)
-
Cleaner production approach introduced
Large potential for energy savings
Certification addresses energy
Product policies addresses energy
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Energy intensity
per sector
(E/GDP)
EU-15
- Industry
- Transport
- Service
- Residential
From Decoupling, Azar,
Holmberg and Karlsson,
Chalmers University of
Technology, 2002 based on
IEA statistics
Sweden
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Sustainable
Development dimensions
Environmental
Addresses the fundamental dilemma of nonrenewable resource use and pollution
Social
Improved health potential
Economic
Immense economic loss in present regime
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2. TRANSPORT
Current developments
- Globally – mobility is increasing steeply
- Baltic Sea Region – fast increase
- Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels
- Today we travel on an average 40 km/capita/day
Tendencies for the future:
- Transport sector consumption is dominated by cars
- Up to one car per drivers licence
- Tourism increasing
- Commuting is increasing
No serious efforts to address mobility increase
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Mobility developments EU-15
1980-2000
From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology,
2002 based on EEA statistics
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Mobility costs
• Non-renewable
resource use
• Infrastructure costs
• Increased forced
mobility
• Health costs: pollution,
accidents
• Economic costs
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Alternative mobility developments 1
Urban and personal
transport
- Decreased mobility – use of ICT
- Decreased mobility – more efficient
urban planning
- Decreased mobility – shop less far
away
- Improved public transport
- Increased biking in cities
- Mobility management initiatives
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Alternative mobility
developments 2
Technical
- Alternative fuels introduced
- Energy efficient cars have a large potential
- Ecological driving
Freight sector
- Rail transport increasing
- Transport addressed in product policies
- Safer ship transport in the Baltic Sea?
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3. URBANISATION
Current developments
- Cities as classical unhealthy environments less serious
- Ecological footprints of cities very large
- Globally – urbanisation increasing, now passed 50 %
- Baltic Sea Region – urbanisation increasing
- Some mega cities – uneven development
Tendencies for the future:
- Urbanisation continues
- Urban transport problems critical
- Air pollution still problematic
No serious efforts to address urbanisation
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Alternative urban developments 1
Improved personal life
-
How people want to live – improved housing
Rebuilding slab house areas
Urban integrative planning
Cities for people, not cars
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Alternative urban developments 2
Improved urban management
-
Improved energy management – district heating
Improved traffic planning – safer streets
Improved waste management
Greener cities
The factor five city is possible
Rural and urban cooperation
- Economic alternatives to agriculture
- Making town and rural life attractive
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4. DEMOGRAPHY
Current developments
- Globally – population growth is decreasing
- Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off
- Population “collapse” in East is decreasing
- Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!)
Tendencies for the future
- Population will stabilise
- Public social care in crisis
- Public income and social care in crisis
No serious efforts to address age challenge
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The welfare state
• The welfare tasks – child care, education, elderly
care, health care
• Division of duties between the public, the family and
other actors
• The responsibility of the individual
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Compare GDP with
Social Progress Indicators
(Source www.nnn.org)
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Another approach – to study
development as such
•
•
•
•
Different development types
Different actors
The role of incentives and policies
Practical “frames”
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Different types of development
• Business as usual
the market will fix it
• Technological optimism
the technology will fix it
• Environmental modernisation
Business will fix it
• Rio and Agenda 21 development
Civil society and democracy will fix it
• Structural change
We will have to build a new infrastructure
• Deep ecology
Ethics will fix it
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Who are the actors ?
Actor/Action Reso Poli- Legal
urces cies rules
global
x
x
nation
x
x
company
family
individual
Life
styles
x
region
municipality
Pro- Produ Practijects ction calities
x
x
x
x
x
x
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Frames for practical work
1. Brundtland Commission, 1987
Safeguarding possibilities for future generations
2. Rio Conference, UNCED, 1992
The 40 chapters in Agenda 21
3. The natural Step Foundation
Four systems conditions for sustainable development
4. Eco-design wheel
Eight steps to sustainable products and services
5. Alan Atiksson approach
The compass, the pyramid
6. Finland’s Future Studies Academy
Forecasting, back casting, visioning
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Business
"Business leaders who align their business
strategy and technical
development with sustainability and social
accountability will deliver
superior long-term results to shareholders."
- Al Gore Baltic Sea region based companies adjusting their
business policy towards Sustainable Development
and Corporate Social Responsibility include IKEA,
Ericsson, and Kesko Corporation; companies
implementing EMS certification and GRI reporting
are increasing.
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Something New Under the Sun, John McNeill, 2000
The long term perspective 1
20th Century priorities
- International security and military might
- Economic growth
- Nationalism
- From Totalitarian governance to Democracy
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Armed conflicts, 1946–2003
(Source: Eriksson & Wallensteen, 2003)
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The ‘waves’ of democratization
1990s
Proportion of population in democracies
Proportion democratic of independent states
1930s
0.3
1960s
0.2
% states
0.1
% population
0.0
Proportion
0.4
0.5
(Source: Gleditsch, Ward & Ward, 2004)
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
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Development
From
Wackernagel and Reese
authors of the ecological footprint concept
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The long term perspective 2
A crisis to get through?
(in line with Johannesburg 2002)
- Safeguarding Biological productivity (e.g. in Baltic Sea)
- Safeguarding Water
- Safeguarding Biodiversity
- Decoupling economic growth and material flows
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The long term perspective 3
21st Century priorities
- Implementing a new energy regime
with large consequences for both the
transport sector and urban development
- A stabilised population
- Developing democracy
sustainability strategies accepted in society
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In the Baltic Sea region
•
•
•
•
•
Population is stable
Social progress is part of the Nordic model
Democratic regimes are stable
Regional cooperation is strong
Renewable energy resources are rich
We need to
• Uncouple economic growth from environmental impact
• Favour innovation and entrepreneurship
• Recycle resources
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Governments
Changed priorities
Economic growth has to be replaced by
sustainable development as an overriding
goal to
- support a healthy economic
development,
- achieve general welfare,
- save the environment, and
- safeguard natural resources
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The role of universities
Education/Information
The policy of education for sustainable development is
gaining support on many levels
Research
All countries in the Baltic Sea region have a long academic
tradition
Cooperation with other actors
Universities have an important role in offering education and
projects for other actors, in particular companies and local
authorities.
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Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region!
www.balticuniv.uu.se
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