Transcript Election 2016: What Happened?

Election 2016: What
Happened?
PROF. JENNIFER N. VICTOR
@JENNIFERNVICTOR
Questions
Why were the forecasts wrong?
How have our politics changed?
What should we expect in a Trump presidency?
Why were the forecasts
wrong?
Polling averages: Clinton was never
behind
Source: Pollster.com
All the poll-based forecasting models
predicted Clinton win
But:
- Clinton won the popular vote
- Most models are not designed to predict Electoral College outcome
- Polls were wrong-not-wrong
Source: New York Times
Hypothesis 1: Sample Error
Pollsters seek to estimate preferences among “likely
voters”
“Likely voters” = “have you voted before”
This may have underestimated Trump vote
Solution: random sample from eligible voters and then
weight by the probability of turnout.
H/T: Prof. Justin H. Gross
Hypothesis 2: Hard to poll undecideds
Independent, undecided, and third-party voters
decided late.
Difficult to accurately predict their vote.
Polls correctly predicted support for
Clinton, but not Trump
Polls are accurate predictors of
Clinton vote
Polls consistently underestimate
Trump vote
Source: @smotus, Mischiefs of Faction on Vox:
Hypothesis 3: Undecideds were “shy”
The “Bradley Effect”
◦When voters are reluctant to reveal their true
preference in pre-election polls because they don’t
want to be judged by pollsters.
◦Reluctance to show support for minority candidate.
◦Polling differs from outcome.
◦Some evidence for this, but we’re not sure WHY
Hypothesis 4: Underestimated
Fundamentals
Not all the models were wrong.
Not all forecasts were wrong
Some early forecasts based on
structural features of election
predicted Trump.
The Fundamentals:
◦ Incumbency
◦ President’s popularity
◦ GDP growth
Fundamental #1
The longer a party holds the White House, the
lower its probability of keeping it in the next
election.
Democrats were seeking a third term.
Fundamental #2: Obama approval ratings
In the 12 elections
from 1948 to 1992,
when the party
controlling the White
House had a July
presidential approval
rating exceeding 50
percent, it won.
July 2016: Obama
approval 49%
Fundamental #3: Gross Domestic
Product
2nd quarter GDP growth
is predictive of
incumbent support
1.4 % growth is
moderate
Election Fundamentals
Trump Victory
1. Democrats seeking a third term
2. President Obama’s moderate popularity this year
3. Moderate economic growth mid-year
Hypothesis 5: Enthusiasm gap
How elections are won:
◦Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
◦Republicans were more enthusiastic about their nominee
than Democrats were about theirs.
◦Compare to 2012
2016 Turnout was low
National Voter Turnout
2012
2016
Percent of Voters
70
65
62.3
60
55.6
55
50
45
40
Year
Source: @bradplumer Vox.com
Total Voters
National Voter Turnout 2012/2016
68,000,000
66,000,000
64,000,000
62,000,000
60,000,000
58,000,000
56,000,000
2016 voter turnout favored
Republicans. Democrats did
not engage like they did in
2012.
65,915,795
60,933,504
2012
Dem
60,839,922
60,255,858
2016
Repub
Source: CNN
Older, white, Northerners
moving to Republicans;
nonwhite Southwest
moving to Democrats
Source: Washington
Post/ Associated press
Non-college educated whites turned out,
compared to 2012
The greater the density of whites
without a college degree, the
greater the swing to Trump,
versus 2012.
Source: Washington
Post/ Associated press
Questions
Why were the forecasts wrong?
How have our politics changed?
What should we expect in a Trump presidency?
How have our politics changed
Parties are weak
◦ Republican elites failed to
prevent an outsider from
gaining their parties
nomination
Partisanship is strong
Unusual & dangerous
combination
Source: @Julia_azari, Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com
CNN exit polls
How our politics have changed: parties II
2016: Social/racial
dimension grows in
importance
Predict: Blue party begins to
adopt more economic
conservative policies
(trade?)
Are parties realigning their
voter coalitions?
Predict: Red party becomes
more populist
Source: @jennifernvictor, Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com
Questions
Why were the forecasts wrong?
How have our politics changed?
What should we expect in a Trump presidency?
Trump: unconventional candidate
Lack of support from his party’s elites.
Never held elected office or government position of any
kind.
Trump endorsements
Source: fivethirtyeight.com
Trump
newspaper
endorsements
Source: Thehill.com
Trump favorability
Source: pollster.com
Trump raised less $
Source: opensecrets.org
Trump ran fewer ads
Team Clinton aired three times as many
ads as Team Trump
Trump had fewer
field offices
Clinton had more than twice as
many field offices as Trump
Source: fivethirtyeight.com
Trump Unconventional
Everything about Donald Trump makes him an
unconventional president.
Our uncertainty about how he will govern is
enormous. No one knows. No one.
Concerns
Legitimizing racism, vulgarity.
Deepening American polarization.
Threats to the norms and institutions that make democracy function
◦ Threats to the legitimacy of elections
◦ Encouraged voter suppression and intimidation (universal suffrage)
◦ Threatened to jail opponent (due process)
◦ Intimidated journalists (free press)
◦ Calls for nuclear proliferation (reckless)
◦ Questioned international treaties, like NATO
Evidence of Reasonableness
Bluster may have been just for the campaign show
Trump chose Mike Pence
Victory speech was moderate
Unified government means
◦ Less gridlock
◦ Easy for voters to assign future credit/blame
American Democracy
Flawed and imperfect
Robust
Not a spectator sport. Work!