Transcript 125 cruz

VRMCA
2015 Annual Meeting
VA Beach, October 6
“Presidential Politics and the US Economy”
Daniel Palazzolo
Professor of Political Science
University of Richmond
12
Unemployment Rate: March 2008-Sept 2015
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
9.8
10
10
8.7
8
6
0
8.2
8.1
7.5
7.2
6.7
5.9
5.1
6.1
5.1
2
8.9
8.2
6.5
4
9.5
5.5
5.1
Labor Force Participation Rate: 2004-2015
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
67.0
66.2
65.8
66.0
65.0
65.4
66.0
66.2
66.1
64.1
64.7
64.0
63.2
63.0
63.5
62.8
62.0
62.4
61.0
60.0
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Trump Tax Plan Goals
• Middle Class Tax Relief
– Maintain deductions and credits for middle class
– Eliminate Marriage penalty and Alternative Minimum Tax
• Simplification
– Four brackets
– Eliminate all estate taxes
• Economic Growth
–
–
–
–
Corporate Tax Rate 15%
Repatriate Corporate Profits at 10% rate
Eliminate Corporate Loopholes
“Reasonable” Business Expensing
• Fiscal Responsibility?
Trump Tax Rates
Income Tax
Rate
Long Term
Cap Gains/
Dividends
Rate
Single
Filers
Married
Filers
Heads of
Household
0%
0%
$0 to
$25,000
$0 to
$50,000
$0 to
$37,500
10%
0%
$25,001 to
$50,000
$50,001 to
$100,000
$37,501 to
$75,000
20%
15%
$50,001 to
$150,000
$100,001
to
$300,000
$75,001 to
$225,000
25%
20%
$150,001
and up
$300,001
and up
$225,001
and up
Trump Effects
(Tax Foundation)
• Strategy makes sense and gains over 10 years
– 11.5% GDP growth
– 29% increase in capital investment
– 5.3 million jobs
But…
-Revenues decline by $10.2 trillion
-Publicly held debt would increase from 77% to
125% of GDP
Jeb Bush Tax Plan
• Individual Income Taxes
–
–
–
–
–
–
Three rates from seven: 28%, 25% and 10%
Double the Standard Deduction
Eliminates Marriage Penalty and ATM
Expands Income Tax Credit
Maintain charitable deductions
Cap deductions for the wealthy
• Corporate Taxes
– Cut rate from 35% to 20%
– Repatriate Corporate Profits at 8.75% (10 years)
Bush Effects
(Tax Foundation)
• Gains over 10 years
– 10% GDP growth
– 28.8% increase in capital investment
– 2.7 million jobs
– Increase revenues by $1.6 trillion
Marco Rubio Tax Plan
• Individual Taxes
– Two simple brackets—15% and 35%.
– Replace standard deduction with personal exemption
and credit
– New child credit of $2500
– Eliminate the marriage penalty and estate taxes
• Corporate
– 25% top rate
– Full expenses of investments
– Exempt business from repatriating cash
Rubio Effects
(Tax Foundation)
• Gains over 10 years
– 15% GDP growth
– 49% increase in capital investment
– 2.7 million jobs
– Increase revenues by $1.7 trillion
Hillary Clinton Economic Plan
• Expansive agenda
• See:
• https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/planraise-american-incomes/
Bernie Sanders 10 year Economic Plan
• Medicare for All ($15 trillion)
• Increase Social Security ($1.2 trillion)
• Infrastructure ($1 trillion)
• College Affordability ($750 billion)
• Paid family leave ($319 billion)
• Bolster private pensions ($29 billion)
• Youth Jobs Initiative ($5.5 billion)
• Increase minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2020
Revenues: ($6.5 trillion)
- Increase income, capital gains, and estate taxes on
earners who make $250,000 and above
GOP Nomination Process: Two Schools
of Thought
New School
• Outsider Prevails
– GOP base is tired of politics as
usual
– GOP Politicians have not
delivered needed change
– Grassroots needs to takeover
the process
– 50% or more voters are
consistently supporting an
outsider
Traditional School
• Republicans eventually fall
in line
– Winner needs to raise $
– Winner needs
organization/endorsements
– Too early to make much of
polls: voters will come around
– Need to link together
establishment with grassroots
GOP Tracking Poll: 2015
(realclearpolitics ave: 9/17-10/1)
25
22.8
20
17.3
15
11
9.5
10
8.3
6.1
5
0
Trump
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Bush
Cruz
GOP Nomination 2007-08
30
25
28
27
23
20
20
15
15
14
Oct-07
12
10
5
0
Guiliani
Thompson
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Dec-07
GOP Nomination 2011-12
40
35
32
30
25
34
28
26
25
23 23 22
Oct 2 2011
Nov 1 2011
20
15
10
10
12
9
Dec 17 2011
14
Feb 12 2012
9
5
3
3.5
1.7
0
Romney
Perry
Cain
Gingrich
Santorum
Fundraising
(through 2nd quarter)
120
103.2
100
80
Individual
60
SuperPac
38
40
20
11.4
10.6
16
14.4
6.8
9.8
2.2 3.4
1.9
0
Bush
Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Rubio
Trump
Endorsements
• Bush
–
–
–
–
5 Governors
7 Senators
25 House Members
15 Statewide
• Rubio
– 1 Governor
– 5 House Members
– 5 Statewide
Trump’s Endorsements
Winning in N. Korea
Dennis Rodman
Kim Jong Un