Transcript document
US President Election 2016 “Never get into fight with ugly people, they have nothing to lose” Copenhagen, October 2016 The Political noise Trump got close.. What now? The Political noise Polls: Believe at own risk… The Political noise Which poll did best last time? The Political noise Is it still close..? The Political noise Corporate could really matter…. The Political noise Personal taxes “The” Macro Equation Marx + Central banks = Trump(?) or No free markets + Misallocation of capital = Inequality The Economic Setup Growth during Presidents The Economic Setup Debt during Presidents The Economic Setup What in it for me (..the voter) The Economic Setup Reagan was the real sinner!!! Market reaction The Wave election? Market reaction Healthcare vs. pharma & biotech The Economic Setup Maybe this is why US growth and investment slow? The Economic Setup 2017 again a low growth year..waiting for Helicopter! Cost of capital Lowest interest rate in 5.000 Years QE: Did it work or not? Market & central banks starting to doubt QE/low rates Cost of capital 10 Y US + Japan: Zero no more? Cost of capital US GDP can’t stay above 2.0% Cost of capital NEW trend: USD stronger, CNY weaker…. Inflation China Producer Prices Macro Risk • US election • Brexit – part II • Italian, German and French politics • Helicopter money is next Macro Trading US Fixed income is rising in yield! Source: Tag618.com Macro Risk The Conclusion • Higher volatility into political and market risks (new policy) • Fiscal expansion (but from where?....) • Both central banks & politics stuck = business cycle come-back? • Safe haven will prevail into year-end…US$, CHF, short FI Equity: Underweight (vs 25%) FI: Underweight (vs 25%) Commodity: Neutral (25%) but UW Silver & Gold Cash: OW (vs 25%) FX: Long US$ - Main fx overlay The end of central banks The Macro Conclusion • US$ dominates everything – No one has independence • The Social Contract being broken is new potential risk Predictions: • Trump can win US election • Biggest bubble in history • Stronger US$ • Weaker gold but then higher • Oil could test high of range 60+ Bull or Bear?