Transcript Compilation of National Accounts: An Overview of Sources and

Republic of Zambia
Central Statistical Office
ZAMBIA COUNTRY PRACTICE IN
COMPILATION OF ECONOMIC
STATISTICS
“PAPER PREPARED BY SHEBO NALISHEBO AND PETER MUKUKA
TO BE PRESENTED AT SEMINAR “TOWARDS IMPLEMENTATION
STRATEGY FOR INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS ON ECONOMIC
STATISTICS”
6-9 JULY, 2010
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
Presentation Outline
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Overview of Zambia
Organisational structure of the CSO
Economic Statistics Division
 National Accounts
 Industrial Production
 External Trade and Balance of Payments
 Living Conditions Monitoring
 Prices and Consumption Studies
 Public Finance
Sources & Estimation Methods
Dissemination of economic statistics
Short comings
Constraints
Zambia - Geography
Zambia - Demographics
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Surrounded by 8 other countries
Total area: 752, 000 km2
Populated by 12 million people
Copper remains the main export (80 %)
Economic growth rate: 6.4 % (2009)
Inflation rate: 7.8 % (June 2010)
Organizational Structure of the CSO
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The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the
Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP)
Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to
produce official national statistics
These include:
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Population and housing census (conducted every ten years)
Economic Census (to be carried out every five years)
Census of Agriculture
Other periodical national social and economic surveys
The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in
each of the nine provinces of Zambia
Headed by a Director and is divided into four divisions each headed by a
Deputy Director
Organizational set up
DIRECTOR
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
AGRICULTURE
IT& DISSEMINATION
Economic Statistics Division
DEPUTY
DIRECTOR
NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
EXTERNAL TRADE
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
PRICES &
CONSUMPTION
STUDIES
PUBLIC
FINANCE
LIVING
CONDITIONS
National Accounts Branch
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Responsible for the compilation of
GDP on an annual basis
Carry out establishment-based
income accounting surveys (National
Income Inquiry)
External Trade and BoP
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Responsible for the production of
merchandize trade statistics. This is
done on a monthly basis with a onemonth time lag.
Also supplies trade data to National
accounts branch for purposes of
production of expenditure GDP.
Balance of Payments statistics, however,
are compiled at the Central Bank
[‘Gentleman's’ Agreement]
Industrial Production Branch
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Responsible for the compilation of the
quarterly Index of Industrial
Production
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Covers mining, manufacturing and
electricity
Census of Industrial Production
Prices Branch
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Responsible for the compilation of the
Consumer Price Index used to
calculate inflation
Compiled on a monthly basis
Most timely-produced economic
indicator: disseminated every last
Thursday of the reference month
Provides indices for use in the
deflation of GDP
Public Finance Branch
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Responsible for the compilation of
Government and quasi-government
Financial Statistics
Functional and economic
classification of general government
expenditure
Secondary collection and compilation
of monetary statistics
Living Conditions Monitoring Branch
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Conducts the Living Conditions
monitoring survey every other year
Used for computation of poverty
estimates and poverty maps
Updating of CPI weights
Direct measurement of Household
Final Consumption Expenditure
Data Sources
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National Accounts Branch
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The primary sources of data for the compilation of GDP include:
 Census of industrial production covering mining, manufacturing
and electricity
 Census of Construction
 National Income Inquiry covering the services sector
 The Government accounts for community, social and personal
services and government final consumption expenditure.
 The 1993/1994 Household Budget Survey (HBS) for estimating
household final consumption expenditure and the informal sector.
 Imports and exports from the External Trade statistics and
transactions with the rest of the world from Balance of Payments
statistics.
Data Sources
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Secondary sources for GDP compilation:
use of volume and price indicators
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Annual crop forecast and post-harvest
surveys
Quarterly index of industrial production
Consumer Price Index
Turnover from VAT register
Data Sources
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External Trade statistics
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Main data source is customs data from the customs
and exercise division.
Non-Customs sources (e.g. electricity and crude oil)
Monthly survey of major importers and exporters for
data verification
Industrial Production statistics
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Data obtained directly from a sample of
establishments in 4 provinces (for the quarterly Index
of Industrial Production)
Data Sources
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Prices statistics
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About 15, 000 price quotations obtained on a
monthly basis from nearly 2, 000 retail
outlets throughout the country
Public Finance statistics
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Data obtained from annual financial reports
on income and expenditure of government,
and quasi-government institutions
Data Sources
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Living Conditions Statistics
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Data obtained directly from household
surveys
Indicator monitoring survey conducted every
two years
Longitudinal survey with HBS module
planned to be undertaken every five years
Compilation methods
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Economic statistics compilation based
on internationally recognized
methodologies
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1968 & 1993 SNA, BPM5, 2001 GFS Manual,
etc.
Classifications used include:
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ISIC Rev. 3, HS, SITC Rev. 3,COICOP
Plans are underway to implement ISIC Rev. 4
for the upcoming Economic Census, COICOP
for CPI
Dissemination
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The Monthly bulletin, released every last
Thursday of the month through a press
briefing
Monthly CPI press releases
Website: www.zamstats.gov.zm
Publications: External Trade, National
Accounts
Soft copies by request
Users
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Users are invited to dissemination fora
User-producer workshops held before
surveys are carried out to take their concerns
on board
Mixed reactions
Some users are very supportive
Statistics may still be misunderstood, so
some express dissatisfaction
Shortcomings in NA compilation
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Remote benchmark year (1994)
Outdated weights for deflators
No appropriate volume indicators for trade, business
and personal services
There are a lot of small-scale operators in these
industries
Coverage of informal sector was only at the
benchmark year
No current price estimates for private consumption;
derived residually
Shortcomings
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For External Trade:
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Industrial Production
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Quantity data from customs sources poor
No Trade indices produced (e.g. unit value indices, unit
price indices) due to poor quantity/price data.
Census of Industrial Production not conducted regularly
Outdated weights
Public Finance
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Poor coverage of local government sector
Shortcomings
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Prices:
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Outdated weights (1994)
Industry
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The classification used for industries is the
ISIC rev. 2
Rev. 3 was implemented when the 2003
enterprise surveys were carried out [yet to be
incorporated]
For the Economic Census, rev. 4 will be used
Industry
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GDP is reported using three major sectors:
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Primary
Secondary, and
Tertiary
Under the primary sector:
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Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Industry
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Under the secondary sector
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Manufacturing
Construction
Under the tertiary sector
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Trade
Hotels, bars and restaurants
Transport and communications
Financial intermediation and insurance
Real estate and business services
Community, social and personal services
Agriculture
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Primary data source: (Census of Agriculture)
Secondary data source: Annual Crop forecasting
survey & Post harvest survey
Agriculture season: Oct 1 – 30th Sep
Output recorded in the year of harvest
Broken down into crops, livestock and vegetables &
fruits
Weights: Crops (60%); livestock (30%); fruits &
vegetables (10%)
Forestry & Fishing
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Data on forestry obtained from the
Department of Forestry
Number of logs in cubic metres
Alternate sources: Forestry establishments
Data on fish catches in metric tonnes
obtained from 11 major fishing areas across
the country
Mining and quarrying
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Industry broken down into metal mining and
Other mining and quarrying
Metal mining consists of copper and cobalt
production
Other mining includes coal mining and stone
quarrying
Mineral export index used as deflator
Manufacturing
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Data obtained from Census of Industrial Production
and the quarterly Index of Industrial Production
Scope:
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Food, beverages and tobacco
Textiles, clothing & footwear
Wood and wood products
Paper & paper products
Chemicals, rubber & plastics
Non-metallic mineral products
Basic metal products
Fabricated metal products
Electricity & Water
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KWh of electricity generated by Zambia
hydro power stations and diesel stations
Hydro stations generate 99 % of total
electricity
Water data from Water regulatory body
Construction
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Primary data source: Census of Construction
Secondary indicators: Input indicators used to
estimate output
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Cement sales
Stone quarrying
Index of building materials used for deflation
Trade, Business & Personal Services
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No direct indicators used for these sectors
Trade industry assumes output from
Agriculture, manufacturing and imports of
consumption goods are disposed of through
trade
Business services follows the same trend as
Trade
Personal services follow the same trend as
Business Services
Hotels & Restaurants
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Bed occupancy rates used; obtained from the
Ministry of Tourism
Bars and restaurant data obtained indirectly
from the Food, Beverages and Tobacco subsector under Manufacturing
Transport & Communications
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Transport broken down into:
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Rail transport (data on number of passengers &
tonnage of haulage obtained from 2 firms)
Road and pipeline transport (passenger & cargo
hauled; registered public service vehicles)
Air transport (passengers embarking &
disembarking at the 4 main airports)
Postal and telecommunications services
Financial institutions & Insurance
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Employment
FISIM
Number of policies issued
Real estate & business services
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Real estate: urban population growth rates
Business services: assumed to have the
same trends as Retail Trade
Community, social & personal services
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Data mainly for government sector
Uses costs (Intermediate consumption,
compensation of employees) to estimate
output
Data obtained from Public Finance unit which
gets it from Budget Office
Personal services assumed to follow the
movements of Business Services
Constraints
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Budgetary constraints in other government
agencies affects production of statistics (e.g.
tourism, fisheries, local authorities)
Poor quality customs quantity data
Outdated and Weak Statistics Act
End of Presentation
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