Transcript Climate variations in the eastern Mediterranean during the period

Climate variations in the eastern
Mediterranean over the last centuries
Elena Xoplaki, Jürg Luterbacher
Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Eduardo Zorita,
Johannes Werner, Christos Zerefos
PAGES Euro-Med 2k Consortium
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen
[email protected]
Outline
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The Mediterranean Basin
Multi-proxy summer temperature
reconstruction
Coupled MM5 – ECHO-G RCM
Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age
Conclusions
The Mediterranean
Sea, orography, 46.000 km coastline
One eco-region: 10% of vegetation species, 7% of marine species
21 countries and the EU, Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention
430 Mio inhab., 7% world population, 13% world GDP, 33% international tourism
Vulnerability in the
Mediterranean
Deforestation, afforestation, desertification
Land degradation
Food production, food security
Livelihood
Civil security, migration
Political conflicts
Health, vector borne and tick borne diseases
Energy demand, energy generation, solar, wind
Eastern Mediterranean
terrestrial and marine proxies
Lelieveld, Xoplaki et al. 2012
length of the proxies varies
proxies reflect different climate information (temperature, precipitation,
sea level changes, pH, sea water temperature, water mass circulation, etc.)
proxies may record climate conditions at different times of the year
proxies have a different temporal resolution (from daily to multi-decadal)
Eastern Mediterranean
summer temperature reconstruction
Lelieveld, Xoplaki et al. 2012
New summer temperature
reconstruction
Simulated and reconstructed
NH temperature changes
Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013
IPCC AR5, WGI, Chapter 5
Proxy time series
Hardly any temperature
information
PAGES Euro-Med 2k Consortium in prep.
Reconstruction approach
Summer temperature anomaly
multi-proxy reconstruction - EMed
MCA
LIA
20th
PAGES Euro-Med consortium in prep
The MM5 – ECHO-G model
Regional model setup
Modified climate version of the
MM5 (mesoscale meteorological
model)
 Parameterizations chosen to
reduce computational cost and
retaining accurate skill
 Boundaries updated every 12 hours
 No spectral nudging
 Two domains of 135 and 45 km
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45 km resolution domain implemented
in the regional simulations
Gómez-Navarro et al. Clim. Past 2013
ECHO-G / OETZI2 external forcings
OETZI2
Driven by ECHO-G:
Atmospheric-Ocean Coupled
General Circulation Model
 Spectral model (T30)
 Prescribed external forcings
high uncertainty volcanic activity  no volcanic forcing
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Hünicke et al. 2010
Summer temperature anomaly
Eastern Mediterranean
MCA minus LIA
Summer
500hPa differences MCA minus LIA
Conclusions
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Lack of annually resolved climate proxies in the area
High temporal and spatial resolution summer
temperature reconstruction
The recent summer temperatures seem not to be
unprecedented in the context of the last millennium
High resolution RCM allows for accurate spatial
structure of climate variability, in a complex terrain
RCM strong warming in the 20th century connected
with the lack of net cooling by tropospheric aerosols