Transcript The East Asian Transformation:

Total GDP
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)
3,000
2,500
China
South Korea
2,000
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Indonesia
1,500
Thailand
Singapore
1,000
Malaysia
Philippines
500
0
1970
1980
1990
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Note:
Japan GDP was 3,053 in 1990 and 4,651 in 2000.
Sources:
IMF. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database September 2006. 2006.
Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
(est.)
(est.)
(est.)
The Double Dip Recession in Asia
Real GDP Growth (Annual Percent Change)
15
10
China
5
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore
Malaysia
0
Taiwan
Thailand
Philippines
Indonesia
Japan
-5
-10
-15
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source:
IMF. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database September 2006. 2006.
2003
2004
2005 (est.)
2006 (est.)
2007 (est.)
• Is the slowdown of Pac Rim growth
temporary or a long-term trend?
• Key economies undergoing restructuring:
-
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia
Total GDP of the Asian Military Powers
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)
3,000
2,500
China
2,000
India
South Korea
1,500
Russia
Taiwan
1,000
500
0
1970
1980
1990
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source:
IMF. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database April 2006. 2006
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
(est.)
2007
(est.)
• Impact on economic alignments:
-
Shifting trade linkages:
soaring intra-Asian trade
-
Investment patterns:
flows into and out of Asia
-
R & D / Royalties:
growing scientific strength in Asia
ASEAN Exports to Main Destinations
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)
350
300
250
Developing
Economies
200
U.S. & Canada
European Union - 25
150
Japan
100
50
0
1981
1990
1991
1992
1993
Source:
UNCTAD. On-line Handbook of Statistics
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)
80
70
60
China
50
Hong Kong
Singapore
Malaysia
40
Indonesia
India
Philippines
30
Japan
Taiwan
20
Thailand
Pakistan
South Korea
10
0
-10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Source:
UNCTAD. On-line Handbook of Statistics
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
• Effects on Regional Institutions:
-
APEC
ASEAN
ASEAN + 3
Shanghai 6
Chiang Mai Initiative
East Asian Summit
Effects on Strategic Linkages:
- Options for guarantor:
- U.S. / Japan / India
- China
- U.S.
- India
Ability to Sustain Rise to Great Power Status
Japan
China
India
Desire Among
Political Leaders
Mixed
Yes
Yes
Stable Political
System
Yes
Uncertain
Yes
Size of Economy
Yes
Yes
If High Growth Continues
Technical Capability
Yes
Depends On
Foreign Purchases
Yes
Nuclear Weapons
Could Quickly
Develop
Yes
Yes
Missile Technology
Yes
Yes
Yes
Power Projection
Ability But
Self Restraint
Yes Via Land
No By Air or Sea
Sustained Air
And Sea Effort
Key Limitations
Historical Legacy
Pacifist Public
None
Pakistan
Strategic Options
U.S. Dominance
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Russia
Subtly Resist
U.S. / Japanese / Indian
Leadership
Chinese Informal
Preeminence
Asian Concert
of Powers
Prefer To Chinese Lead
Resist
Legitimize role in Asia
North Korea
Implacably Resist
Resist
Accept
Support, if included
South Korea
Continued Ambivalence
Threaten Defection
Preferable To
Japanese Influence
Public support, elite skepticism
Japan
Easiest Choice
Requires Exertion
Regret But Prefer To Prefer U.S. ties plus guarantee
Arms Race
China
Subtle Resistance
Open Resistance
Preferred Result
See as step to China's preeminence
Vietnam
Prefer To Chinese Lead
Increases Future Options
Accept If Necessary
Prefer ties to U.S. or Russia
to balance China
Philippines
Ideal Outcome
Second Choice
Limit Alternatives
Accept but continue treaty with U.S.
Malaysia
Resist
Resist
Acquiesce
Mahathir redux, would support
Resist
Resist
Already Established
Accept, follow China's lead
Thailand
Ended After 1975
Risks Antagonizing China
Already Established
Accept but maintain links to U.S.
Singapore
Preferred
Second Choice
Accept If Inevitable
See as means to elevate status
Indonesia
Ambivalence
Might Join If Included
As A Principal
Resist
Would want a special role
for ASEAN
Cambodia / Laos / Myanmar