Transcript Reporting on National Circumstances and Greenhouse Gas

Reporting on National
Circumstances and Greenhouse
Gas Inventory Information
Introductory presentation by the UNFCCC secretariat
Workshop on the preparation of fourth national
communications from Annex I Parties
Dublin, 30 September – 1 October 2004
Overview
• Introduction
• UNFCCC reporting guidelines, main
provisions relevant to reporting on national
circumstances and greenhouse gas
emission inventory measures
• C&S report of NC3s, some general issues
and problems identified
• Some points for discussion
Introduction
• National circumstances: purpose of reporting
– Article 4.1: stipulates commitments of all Parties, taking into account
national circumstances;
– Article 4.2 (b): the aim of the Convention taking into account different
circumstances, such as economic structure, resource base, need for
sustainable growth;
– Article 7.2(b) and (c): the role of the COP to promote exchange of
information on PaMs taking into account different circumstances and to
facilitate PaMs co-ordination;
– Present basic political, economic, demographic, climatic and natural
resource information relevant to GHG emissions/sinks
– Facilitate the understanding of the Parties’ policy choices to put the
subsequent information in the NC in context
• Reporting on emission inventory: Article 12.1(a) for all
Parties
UNFCCC reporting guidelines
national circumstances
• Clear focus on how the national circumstances affect the
GHG emission profile
• Information that best describes the national circumstances
and historic trends, including disaggregated indicators
• To improve comparability two sets of information are
required
– generic information: government structure, population, geographic,
climate and economic profiles
– sector specific information together with examples of the key drivers:
energy + transportation, industry, waste, building stock and urban
structure, agriculture, forest and others.
Findings and Problems Encountered
national circumstances
• Findings
– Improved reporting compared to the previous NCs;
– Reporting on national circumstances was a basis for reporting on other
issues, such as PaMs, emission inventory and projections;
• Problems encountered
– Extensive reporting did not necessarily contribute to better
understanding of the climate change context;
– Wide diversity in the approaches used by Parties to present key
parameters, such as GDP and energy supply and demand made the
comparison across the countries difficult;
– Many IEA/OECD data have been used for the Compilation and
synthesis report and the IDR reports for consistency;
– Time series for economic and energy data often did not match the
period for reporting on emission inventory (from 1990 to the last but one
year to the year of submission of the national communication).
Starting Points for the Discussion
national circumstances
• How to ensure concise, yet complete and transparent reporting
on the national circumstances; how to enhance reporting on the
effects of the main drivers relevant to GHG emission trends
(obtained, e.g.through structural analysis)?
• How to report on key parameters, such as GDP and energy
supply and demand in a comparable way; is using the
IEA/OECD data and categorization an option?
• How to ensure that the time series for economic and energy
data and any other critical variable matches the period for
reporting on emission inventory (from 1990 to the last but one
year to the year of submission of the national communication)?
UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines
GHG inventory
• Summary information on GHG inventory prepared
following guidelines for inventory
• Period: from 1990 to the last but one year prior to the NC
submission
• GHG inventory information in the NC3 should be
consistent with the submission of the annual inventory
information in the year when the NC is submitted and any
differences should be clearly explained
• A complete inventory data set is not required
• At a minimum, Parties shall report the summary, including
in CO2 eq. and emission trend tables given in the CRF (in
annex)
Findings and Problems Encountered
GHG inventory
• Findings
– Minor reporting problems and inconsistencies between the
inventory data in the NC and annual inventory submission;
• Problems encountered
– Some inconsistencies in the emission trends (between the NC2
and NC3, and the NC3 trend itself)
– In some cases, little information on the key drivers for emission
trends: this information is important for better understanding of
PaMs and projections
– Limited information on quantitative analysis on how changes in
key drivers are affecting emission trends(feedback from IDRs
available, e.g. Germany and Finland)
– Limited explanation on the changes in the inventory data reported
in the previous NC that affect emission trends
Findings from the IDR of Germany (1)
GHG inventory
• Key drivers for CO2 emissions reduction
• improvement in energy use efficiency (largely obtained in the new Länder in
1990–1995) as the main contributor
• changes in energy supply mix: 1) fuel switching from coal to natural gas; 2) an
increased use of non-carbon energy (RES and nuclear energy)
• the counteracting effects of population and GDP growth
•
Figure. Impact of key drivers on CO2 emissions in 1990–2002
-28
Carbon content of fossil fuels
-54
-16
-19
Share of non-carbon energy
Energy use efficiency
-66
-131
75
GDP grow th
44
9
Population grow th
27
Total
-160
Effect in 1990-1995
-26
-133
Effect in 1995-2002
-110
-60
-10
Tg CO2
40
90
Findings from the IDR of Germany (2)
GHG inventory
• Method used: decomposition analysis (ASIF analysis)
• Allows to assess in quantitative terms the effects from key
drivers, such as population, income, energy efficiency and
energy supply mix
• Literature
– Hans-Joachim Ziesing “CO2 emissions in 2002 – only a slight reduction”. April
2003. Economic Bulletin of the German Institute for Economic Research 40(4)4:
121-130. Berlin.
– J. Schleich, W. Eichhammer, U. Boede, F. Gagelmann, E. Jochem, B. Schlomann,
H.-J. Ziesing. 2001. Greenhouse gas reductions in Germany – lucky strike or hard
work?. Climate Policy 1, 363–380
– Jari Kaivo-oja, Jyrki Luukkanen The European Union balancing between CO2
reduction commitments and growth policy: decomposition analyses, Energy Policy
32 (2004) 1511-1530, Elsevier
– IEA/OECD Oil crises and climate changes: 30 years of energy use in IEA
countries, 2004 Paris
Starting Points for the Discussion
GHG inventory
• What makes the reporting on GHG trends in a national
communication different from and complementary to
reporting on the GHG trends in annual NIRs and CRF
files?
• How to ensure concise, yet complete reporting on the key
drivers for the emission trends?
• How to improve reporting on the main drivers that affect
GHG trends?