Transcript International Housing Association - National Association of Home

STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY
Norway
NORWAY
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COUNTRY: Norway
NAME OF ORGANIZATION:
Norwegian Home Builders' Association (NHBA)
1- ORGANIZATION OVERVIEW:
Norwegian Home Builders' Association is a trade association for builders of
residential buildings and holiday homes. The association is the leading voice of
housing policies in Norway and promotes policies making housing a national
priority.
Norwegian Home Builders' Association is a part of The Confederation of
Norwegian Enterprise (NHO).
We have 162 direct member companies, and 800 associated members companies
through franchise concepts among our direct members.
2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS:
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Starts:
- Single, Muliti Family
- Multifamily
Percentages:
Year 2015
Numbers:
30 150
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP Growth
GDP Per Capita
House Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Unemployment
Home Mortgage Interest Rate
Year 2014
3,0% Q3 2015
Year 2014
4.6% in 2015
2.3%
4.6% Nov 2015
2.2 % Sept 2015
3.4%
80%
1.11% July 2015 Y-Y
$ 500 Billion
Home Ownership Rate
Population Growth/Net
$ 67,245
Dec 2014 – Dec 2015
Floating
Fixed 10 years
5,205,434
Population - Norway
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This is Norway
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Read more facts
about Norway
http://www.ssb.no/en/befolk
ning/artikler-ogpublikasjoner/_attachment/2
37252?_ts=1516c73e3a8
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Statistics Norway
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http://www.ssb.no/en
4. HOW HAVE ECONOMIC AND/OR POLITICAL CONDITIONS
CHANGED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2015?
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Norway’s Prime Minister, Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor held an extraordinary
meeting in late January 2016 to discuss the current state of the beleaguered economy and
how best to mitigate the impact of a collapse in Norway’s oil and gas sector. The trio
concluded that current economic buffers, such as the devalued krone, low interest rates, and
record levels of fiscal spending as stipulated in the 2016 budget will be sufficient to keep the
country clear of a recession in 2016. This may be true, however the situation is still likely to
deteriorate as unemployment increased approximately 25% on a yearly basis in October,
investment in extraction related sectors fell 11.8% last year, and an estimated 30,000 jobs in
the oil sector are expected to be lost permanently.
Although prospects are grim over the medium term, public finances will remain intact thanks to
the large sovereign wealth fund, which the government can potentially draw from should
emergency needs arise. Total GDP is expected to expand 1.6% in 2016, which is unchanged
from last month’s forecast. In 2017, the panel sees the economy growing 1.7%. Mainland GDP
growth, which excludes oil drilling activities, is expected to grow 1.4% in 2016 and 1.8% in
2017.
4.
HOW HAVE THESE AND RELATED INSTANCES OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
MARKET TURBULENCE, INCLUDING THE SLUMP IN COMMODITY PRICES,
PARTICULARLY OIL, IMPACTED YOUR HOUSING MARKET?
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The housing market overall in Norway has not been affected too
much of the international turbulence. However there are regional
differences. On the west coast of Norway, where the market is
oil/gas/shipping driven, the housing starts and sales went down 20
percent in 2015. That part of Norway will struggle in 2016.
The downturn in the oil-region is compensated in other parts of
Norway, especially the urban pressure area around the the capitol,
Oslo.
Our currency (NOK) has weakened ca 25-30 % compared to USD
and Euro. That is good news for Norwegian export industry and
tourist industry. The interest rate is historically low
Norwegian housing market has had a record high housing sales in
2015. That is looks promising for housing starts in 2016.
STATE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY PRESENTATION
TEMPLATE…. CONT.
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5- IF THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DYNAMICS DESCRIBED ABOVE HAVE IMPACTED YOUR
MARKET, DO YOU EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO NORMALIZE BY YEAR END?
Yes__________
No___X_____
6- IF YOUR MARKET HAS BEEN IMMUNE TO THESE DYNAMICS TO DATE, DO YOU EXPECT
TO SEE AN IMPACT ON YOUR HOUSING MARKET BEFORE THE YEAR IS OVER?
Yes___________
No________ Don’t know_____X___
Infrastructure
Key personnel
Police
Fire dept
Health workers
Teachers
Roads
Railways
Schools
Environment
Energy
Our
lobby strategy
Land
Enough land
Local
municipalities
Central plan
Banks
Risk capital
Guarantees
Funding
Work / home
House prices /
salary
Cost
Efficiency
Planning
Productivity
Labour
Bureaucracy /
Legislation
Time / cost
Neighbours
Public cost
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THANK YOU.
IHA Secretariat