Transcript Sustainable Futures programme spend (not including EU funds)

The vision of a sustainable Wales
and why it matters for the wellbeing
of our communities
Clive Bates
Director General, Sustainable Futures
23 May 2011
“Central organising principle”
Sustainable development will be the central
organising principle of the Welsh Assembly
Government
One Wales, One Planet
One Wales: One Planet, a new Sustainable Development Scheme for Wales, 22 May 2009.
What is it…?
Development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs
Brundtland definition
Everyone’s at it...
For us, sustainability means addressing key
business-related social, environmental and
economic impacts in a way that aims to bring
value to all our stakeholders, including
shareholders.
Paul Adams
CEO, British American Tobacco
We do have a problem…
I know that this term is obligatory, but I find it
also absurd, or rather so vague that it says
nothing
Luc Ferry, French philosopher
Three conditions for a central
organising principle…
1. A clear definition and overall aim that is
supported by the whole government
2. It has to inform hard but different choices
about money, policy focus and delivery
3. It must be possible to secure legitimacy
and support
Three conditions for a central
organising principle…
1. A clear definition and overall aim that is
supported by the whole government
2. It has to inform hard but different choices
about money, policy focus and delivery
3. It must be possible to secure a sufficient
mandate
Single over-arching measure
1. We should measure progress in a way that can guide
policy. This requires a single over-arching measure
of how we are doing. [...]
2. The right single measure of progress must be the
one that is self-evidently good. The only such
measure is
Richard Layard: "Why subjective well-being should be the measure of progress", given at the OECD World Forum on “Statistics, Knowledge and
Policy Charting Progress, Building Visions, Improving Life", Busan, Korea - 27-30 October 2009 chard Layard,
Single over-arching measure
1. We should measure progress in a way that can guide
policy. This requires a single over-arching measure
of how we are doing. [...]
2. The right single measure of progress must be the
one that is self-evidently good. The only such
measure is the happiness of the population - and
the equivalent absence of misery.
Richard Layard: "Why subjective well-being should be the measure of progress", given at the OECD World Forum on “Statistics, Knowledge and
Policy Charting Progress, Building Visions, Improving Life", Busan, Korea - 27-30 October 2009 chard Layard,
What it means
In Wales, sustainable development means
enhancing the economic, social and
environmental wellbeing of people and
communities, achieving a better quality of life
for our own and future generations:
One Wales: One Planet, a new Sustainable Development Scheme for Wales, 22 May 2009.
What it means
In Wales, sustainable development means
enhancing the economic, social and
environmental wellbeing of people and
communities, achieving a better quality of life
for our own and future generations:
One Wales: One Planet, a new Sustainable Development Scheme for Wales, 22 May 2009.
How it is to be done
In ways which promote social justice and
equality of opportunity;
One Wales: One Planet, a new Sustainable Development Scheme for Wales, 22 May 2009.
How it is to be done
In ways which promote social justice and
equality of opportunity; and …
One Wales: One Planet, a new Sustainable Development Scheme for Wales, 22 May 2009.
How it is to be done
In ways which promote social justice and
equality of opportunity; and
In ways which enhance the natural and cultural
environment and respect its limits using only
our fair share of the earth’s resources and
sustaining our cultural legacy.
One Wales: One Planet, a new Sustainable Development Scheme for Wales, 22 May 2009.
Dimensions of well-being
Developed from report of the “Sarkhozy Commission” on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress
by Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz, Professor Amartya Sen and Professor Jean-Paul Fitoussi
Wellbeing maximised across
generations and through the life-course
Increasing body of empirical data
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
and wellbeing
Three conditions for a central
organising principle…
1. A clear definition and overall aim that is
supported by the whole government
2. It has to inform hard and different choices
about money, policy focus and delivery
3. It must be possible to secure legitimacy
and support
Hard choice 1: long-termism
Projected UK health care spending
(% GDP public & private, annotations at 2002-3 prices)
% GDP
14
US spent
14.6% GDP in
2002 (OECD)
About £220 bn
over 15 years
12
ow
Sl
10
ke
ta
p
u
£30bn
Fully engaged
8
£154bn
6
£96bn
2007-8
19
77
19 78
82
19 83
87
19 88
92
19 93
97
20 98
02
20 03
07
20 08
12
20 13
17
20 18
22
-2
3
4
Source: Wanless, 2002 Securing Our Future Health: Taking A Long-Term View
Hard choice 1: Long termism
Finnish penal policy had two overall aims:
(i) the minimization of the costs and harmful effects of crime and of crime control
(ii) the fair distribution of these costs among the offender, society and the victim
Hard choice 2: silo-busting
• System-wide optimisation
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hospitals vs community care
Hospitals vs gritting pavements
Prison & police vs youth inclusion
Managing dysfunctional families
Dealing with failure at school
Catchment sensitive farming / SUDS
Flood defence vs clean up and rebuild
Energy efficiency vs renewables
Hard choice 3: using evidence
Micro-gen
Energy
efficiency
Metering etc
Hard choice 3: Value for money in
challenging times
A more critical environment for policy-making and spending
Opportunity cost?
Does 20% of effort
secure 80% of value?
Sound rationale for
intervening?
Evidence for costeffectiveness?
Credible market failure
rationale?
Will government do
better?
Unintended
consequences?
Review, break-point,
sunset?
Deadweight and
displacement effects?
Looked at all options
fairly?
Proportionate?
Measurement and
evaluation?
24
Hard choice 4: building resilience
• Investment in critical infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Decarbonising and securing energy supply
Demand management ‘smart roads, grids’ etc
Electrification of transport
Flood and water management in a changing climate
Digital inclusion and high speed broadband
Meeting housing demand – quantity and quality
Waste management and resource productivity
…. at the expense of current consumption
Three conditions for a central
organising principle…
1. A clear definition and overall aim that is
supported by the whole government
2. It has to inform hard and different choices
about money, policy focus and delivery
3. It must be possible to secure legitimacy
and support
Non-negotiable?
Living within ecological limits is the non
negotiable basis for our social and economic
development
Jonathan Porritt
The negotiation
100
Most important issues facing Britain
90
80
Q What would you say is the most
important issue facing Britain today?
Q What do you see as other important
issues facing Britain today?
Pollution / environment
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ozone
hole
Peak concern
on climate
change
100
Most important issues facing Britain
90
80
Unemployment
70
Economy
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Winning legitimacy and support
• Define an ideology and governing philosophy
Formulate a compelling narrative
Match words with deeds and act consistently
• Build trust by the way you work
Evaluation, openness, external advice and scrutiny,
genuine consultation , candour, media relations
• Use time – pursue slow big wins
“Governments overestimate their power to achieve change
in the short term, and underestimate it in the long term”
Trusted to tell the truth?
Trust in People /Trust in Doctors 2009 Ipsos MORI/ RCP September 2009 (2023 GB adults 15+)
Behaviour change
Taxes & fiscal measures
Regulation & fines
League tables
Targets / perf management
Prizes / rewards / bonuses
Preferential treatment
Status recognition
Subsidies / discounts
Feedback
Encourage
Evidence base
Walk the talk & lead
Consistency across policies
Sustained approach
Credibility / confidence
Benchmarking / evaluation
Learning & improvement
Political consensus building
Enable
Catalyse
Exemplify
Remove barriers to act
Set defaults / opt-out vs opt-in
Form clubs / communities
Provide information
Choose intervention timing
Personalise
Provide space / facilities
Build confidence
Ease/cost of access
Engage
Community/network action
Deliberative fora
Segmentation / focus
Secure commitment
Personal contacts
Role models / 'super-users'
Paid/unpaid media campaigns
Pester power / Peer pressure
Workplace norms
Three conditions for a central
organising principle…
1. A clear definition and overall aim
•
Maximisation and fair distribution of well-being over the long term
2. It has to inform hard but different choices
•
Long-termism
•
Silo-busting
•
Evidence based
•
Invest in resilience
3. It must be possible to secure legitimacy and support
•
Clear ideology and narrative
•
Build trust
•
Behaviour change strategy
Annex 1
POSSIBLE POLICY IMPACTS
Starter for 10: families & community
• Integrate services and intervene intensively for the 2-3% families at most
risk. These families can cost £250k / year
• Focus on adults and parenting skills, even if the objective is to secure
wellbeing and social mobility of the children
• Find ways to help isolated older people to develop social networks and
remain involved
• Recognising that relationship breakdown has negative wellbeing
consequences, provide support for couples in difficulty and address
potential drivers of breakdown (drugs, debt, prison)
• Promote opportunities for neighbours to get to know each other, based
on clear evidence that this tends to enhance wellbeing
Starter for 10: health
• Place progressively greater emphasis and resources to evidence-based
preventative measures, as envisaged in Our Healthy Future, and relatively
less to treatment – though recognise that demographics and societal
preference will drive underlying demand
• Help people get out and stay out of hospital by giving GPs stronger
commissioning role covering health and social care
• Challenge the approach to the last years of life – considering whether the
expense and intensity of interventions in the last two years of life provide
the dignified death that most people say they want
• Place greater emphasis on mental health, with investment in cognitive
behavioural therapies
Starter for 10: education
• Ensure the incentives and performance management for schools give
proper weight to addressing the needs of those failing and at risk of
leaving unqualified, considering the lifetime negative wellbeing
consequences
• Have longer school days and four terms for disadvantaged children
(reduce reliance on family support)
• Teach ‘resilience’ – drawing on the evidence that it improves academic
performance and employability
• Create more rounded adaptable personalities, by specialising later
• Rethink career guidance and manage transitions to work
Starter for 10: crime
• Learn from Finland. Shift sentencing policy to minimise overall harm,
including cost to taxpayer and consequences of reoffending: generally
moving to community sentencing, restorative justice and prison as a last
resort
• Greatly expanding ‘youth inclusion’ programmes and focussing on failure
at school.
• Focus prisons on reducing reoffending, with greater attention aid to
preparing for law-abiding life outside, avoiding extremely disruptive shortstay sentences and greater attention to transitions from custody to the
community
• Adopt a harm minimisation approach to drugs – perhaps including
prescribing
Starter for 10: economy
• Give due weight to GDP – but measure and care about what matters.
• Focus on assisting the transition from economic inactivity to productive
activity. The focus should be on unemployment and jobs at all levels in
the economy, not just hi-tech or knowledge-based.
• Focus on building the foundations of sustainable growth (establishing
conditions in which forward looking and well managed businesses can
thrive rather than direct business support
• Reshape apprenticeships and other programmes for teenagers to
strengthen psychological fitness to help young people find and keep work
• Design transportation, housing and economic policy to reduce commuting
time and allow a more localised economic and social geography
• Only go beyond regulations made at UK or EU level where the wellbeing
case justifies it (applies generically).
Starter for 10: environment
• Promote resource efficiency as a dominant environmental strategy.
• Recognise total cost of flooding includes private costs (pooled cleaning up
costs through insurance) and seek harm minimising allocation between
avoiding floods, reduction of impact and costs of damage/repair.
• Give greater weight in the planning system to the high value that people
place on owning their own home and living in pleasant surroundings
• Carefully differentiate protected areas – avoid overprotecting some and
under-protecting others and give weight to access as a wellbeing driver
• Recast farming as a land management occupation and production of a
mix of market good (food) and non-marketed goods and services – for
which payments are made.
• In energy sector transition, place greater emphasis on the demand side
and energy efficiency – relatively less on renewables. Be wary of high
carbon cost technologies (microgen, PV etc)
Three conditions for a central
organising principle…
1. A clear definition and overall aim
•
Maximisation and fair distribution of well-being over the long term
2. It has to inform hard but different choices
•
Long-termism
•
Silo-busting
•
Evidence based
•
Invest in resilience
3. It must be possible to secure legitimacy and support
•
Clear ideology and narrative
•
Build trust
•
Behaviour change strategy