Transcript Industrial CO2 emissions in China based on the hypothetical

Industrial CO2 emissions in China
based on the hypothetical extraction
method(HEM): Linkage analysis
1. Introduction
• Over the past decade, the tertiary industry (Service
sector) has been the largest and the fastest growing
sector in China
• The tertiary industry and have relatively low direct CO2
emission intensity
• In order to fully understand whether the observed
economic structural change can help China reduce CO2
emission, the objective of this study is to explore the
inter-industrial CO2 emission linkages.
Linkage?
• Theoretically, a sector's relationship with the rest of the
economy, through its direct and indirect intermediate
purchases and sales, is defined as the sector's linkages.
• When measuring linkages under the input–output
framework, two methods have been dominantly used:
– the Classical Multiplier Method (Rasmussen, 1956; Chenery
and Watanabe, 1958)
– the hypothetical extraction method (HEM,initially proposed by
Strassert (1968) and later revised by Cella(1984) and Clements
(1990)).
HEM?
• HEM improves over the Classical Multiplier Method by analyzing a
sector's relevance through simulating the elimination of all linkages
of this sector from the economy
• It is especially beneficial to use HEM to study the role of a sector
within a multi-sectorial model and identifies sectors with greatest
economic relevance (Guerra and Sancho, 2010).
• HEM has been used to study
– the economy-wide roles of individual sectors, such as agriculture sector (Cai and
Leung,2004) and construction sector (Song et al., 2006)
– environment and resources such as water and energy use(Duarte et al., 2002;
Guerra and Sancho, 2010)
• In this research, HEM has been applied to study Industrial CO2
emissions linkages in China
2. Methodology
•
Bs represents a block of target sectors in the economy, while B−s
represents the remaining blocks.
•
The net backward linkage emission (NBLE) represents the requirements of
CO2 emissions from B−s to obtain the final demand of Bs
•
The net forward linkage emission (NFLE) is the real or net ‘emission
exports' made by Bs,
3. Empirical analysis
• 3.1Demand and output emissions of CO2 (DE and OE)
What are the Fig. 2. tell us?
•
The total DE and OE of CO2 (summation of values from all blocks) are both
7757.74 Mt.
•
It is worth noting that the same result (7757.74 MtCO2) is arrived if only
according to the whole consumption of fossil fuels in China and the carbon
emission factor of each fuel source without using the input–output model.
•
This is due to the certain amount of CO2 emitted from the whole economic
system into the environment.
•
However, the OE and DE varied from one block tothe other.
•
The decomposition of DE and OE of CO2 emissions into the forementioned
four components allows us to examine in more details how the blocks of
sectors are CO2-related in the economy and what is the character of the
CO2 transfers(Fig.3)
Fig. 3. Decomposition of CO2
emissions for each block.
High-carbon industries
• Within the High-carbon industries, it can be noted that
NFLE represents 88.43%, 72.59%, and 77.26% of the
OE in the Energy industry, Transportation, and Basic
industry, respectively.
• This high NFLE ratio indicates that these blocks emit a
significant part of their CO2 in order to meet the final
demand from the rest of the economy, and that these
blocks have an important effect on the CO2 emissions of
the whole economy
Low-carbon industries
• Only 20.20% of the OE is NFLE for Technology
industry, 29.05% for Service, and 2.10% for
Construction come.
• Low NFLE ratio in OE means that these blocks
emit few CO2 in providing outputs required by
other blocks. The OE of these blocks is
markedly lower than their DE and their OE are
mainly for themselves.
3.3. Net transferred emissions
(NTE) of CO2
•
Fig. 4. Net transferred emissions (NTE) of CO2 in the network of eight blocks. (The
numbers on the arrows represent the amount of net CO2 transfer between the blocks
connected by the arrows, with Mt CO2 as the unit.).
What are the Fig. 4. tell us?
•
(1) Energy industry is the largest block generating net output of CO2
emissions. Other blocks mainly depend on the embodied carbon
inputs from the Energy industry. Different amounts of CO2 emissions
were transferred to the other seven blocks
•
(2) Basic industry is also an important block providing net output of
CO2 emissions
•
(3) Transportation has less net outputs of CO2 emissions than Energy
industry and Basic industry. The only input of CO2 emissions is from
Energy industry.
•
(4) Agriculture and Light industry are closely linked. The proportion of
net transfer emissions from Agriculture to Light industry is the largest
•
(5) Technology industry, Construction, and Service (Low-carbon
industries) are the primary destinations of CO2 emissions transferred
from not only the Energy industry, but also other blocks
4. Conclusion and policy
implications
• These results indicate that
– to maintain the process of production in the economy,
the CO2 emissions embodied in the product exchange
among the blocks are transferred from upstream (such
as high-carbon industries including Energy industry,
Transportation and Basic industry) to downstream
(such as Low-carbon industries including Service,
Construction and Technology industry) through the
supply chain in the economy
Policy implications
• Shifting to Low-carbon industries with less CO2 emission intensities
will reduce the CO2 emission intensity per unit GDP.
•
It will also help China achieve the pledged goal of lowering its CO2
emissions per unit GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to the 2005
level.
• However, this shift will not reduce aggregate CO2 emissions for the
entire economy.
• Therefore, mitigation of climate change which requires actual
reduction of GHG emissions in absolute terms, cannot be
automatically achieved in the course of economic growth and
associated structural change.
Policy implications
• the significant linkages between High-carbon industries and Lowcarbon industries suggest that:
– all industrial activities are responsible for the use of energy
– reduction of activities in the High-carbon industries, whilst supporting a
CO2 emission intensity mitigation within the economy, may pose risks
on the production of other economically key sectors in China.
– to reduce CO2 emissions in absolute terms, it is crucial to increase the
relative share of low carbon energy in the Energy industry. policies on
low carbon energy will affect the whole economic system because of the
linkages
– stimulation of low carbon energy development may be more important
than optimization of the economic structure