Transcript 8 Dynamic Pricing monitor Big data and its uses in the tourism

First Tourism
Statistics Forum
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
(Riyadh)
Jon Kepa Gerrikagoitia, Ph.D.
[email protected]
CICtourGUNE
Cooperative Research Center in Tourism
Turismoko Ikerketa Zentro Kooperatiboa
Centro de Investigación Cooperativa en Turismo
Donostiako Parke Teknologikoa
Mikeletegi Pasealekua, 71 · 3. Solairua
E- 20009 Donostia/ San Sebastian · Spain
Tel.: +34 943 010885 · Fax: +34 943 010846
tourgune.org
Topics
•
The Relationship between statistics and technology
•
Role of databases in the statistical work
•
Big data and its uses in the tourism statistics
•
Recommendations of building banks of statistical indicators and data at the industry
level
The importance
of tourism
worldwide
Great impact of tourism on the economy: need for detailed and updated
information in “real time”
employment
GDP
UNWTO (2014)
3
Challenge
Incorporate digital footprint (Big Data) as an alternative and complementary
source in the statistical production.
Why:
Efficiency (cost, time)
How :
Tourism Observatory as
intelligence platform in tourism to
leverage innovative business models
based on data economy
4
Tourism
Observatories
The Relationship
between statistics
and technology
5
Tourism Observatories
Monitors
Accomodation
industry monitoring
Pricing strategies
Big data and its uses in the tourism statistics
Web
Destination
Monitor
Dynamic
Pricing
Monitor
hotel occupancy
survey
Integrate and visualize
statistical information
Visitor behaviour in
promotion/eCommerce
destination sites
visitor
survey
Tourism
Statistics
Social Networks analysis
image and reputation
Social
Media
Monitor
Mobility
Monitor
visitor
survey
mobility
survey
Expenditure
survey
Flows of visitors - territory
Tourism Observatories
Technology
Role of databases in the statistical work
Cloud
Physical
Digital footprint
San Sebastián
SOCIAL
MEDIA
> 1.000.000
records day
MOBLITY
NONITOR
TOURISM
STATISTICS
DYMANIC
PRICING
WEB
DESTINATION
Technological infrastructure - CICtourGUNE
Data Factory
Data assets - CICtourGUNE
Comparison between the pricing data and official data from the INE (Spanish national
statistics institute)
Dynamic Pricing
monitor
Big data and its
uses in the
tourism
statistics
•
Official figures are published with a delay up to weeks
•
The monitor can publish the data at the end of the collection period (for example the last day of the month)
•
Good fit and strong correlation between pricing official statistics and the monitor’s data. Difference aprox. 5%
•
Modelling and prediction of hotel occupancy rates based on room prices offered online
•
Dynamic pricing patterns and impact
8
Dynamic Pricing
monitor
Hotel occupancy estimates at subnational level, Basque Country (Spain)
•
•
Big data and its
uses in the
tourism statistics
Data: 1.984.149 observations for the Basque Country from 2013-01-01 to 2013-12-31
Method: The system collects double room price 1,..., 28, 45, 60, and 90 days in advance of the target date.
For each hotel, three percentiles (P , P , and P ) have been used as the bounds:
30 70
99
• Seg1 low prices
normal or middle prices
• Seg2
• Seg3 high prices
•
•
Seg4 unusually high prices
Results:
Fitted linear regression model
Model stimates and residuals
9
Dynamic Pricing
monitor
Occupancy prediction model at subnational level, Basque Country (Spain)
Big data and its
uses in the
tourism statistics
•
Model that allows to predict occupancy rates before the official figures are available
•
Segmentation bounds obtained for the 2013 data (the training set) and model are applied to data
for 2014 (the test set)
Predictions for the Basque Country for 2014
10
Dynamic Pricing
monitor
Model assesment at National level
Big data and its
uses in the
tourism
statistics
Linear regression model fitted and their assesment statistics for Spanish Autonomous Communities for 2013
11
Eskerrik asko
Shoukran
Thank you
Jon Kepa Gerrikagoitia
[email protected]
CICtourGUNE
Cooperative Research Center in Tourism
Turismoko Ikerketa Zentro Kooperatiboa
Centro de Investigación Cooperativa en Turismo
Donostiako Parke Teknologikoa
Mikeletegi Pasealekua, 71 · 3. Solairua
E- 20009 Donostia/San Sebastian · Spain
Tel.: +34 943 010885 · Fax: +34 943 010846
tourgune.org