Transcript women in mississippi - Madison County Business League

Madison Healthcare Forum
May 4, 2011
Nation
Mississippi
Madison
Marianne Hill, Ph.D., Senior Economist, Mississippi IHL
National Economy:
Out of the Woods? Almost.
Private sector jobs up
 Consumer spending stronger
 Exports, equipment sales up

Government spending falling
Oil prices high
Unemployment high, housing weak
Toxic financial assets still on books
Mississippi Economy:
Private Services Leading the Way
 Jobs, sales, taxes improving
 Major projects on-line
 Private service jobs strong
Consumers uncertain
Manufacturing lagging nation
Stimulus funds gone
Long-term challenges on hold
MS Employment:
Recovery Has Far to Go
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
-6
0
6
12
18
Feb 08 - Present
Jun 80 - Sep 1986
24
30
36
42
48
54
May 2000 - Dec 2007
Jun 80 - Sep 1987
60
66
72
78
84
90
Jun 80 - Sep 1985
Employment is indexed to month of peak employment level
4
Mississippi Parallels US Employment Index
2007 - 2012
Employment as % of 2007:Q1 Employment Level
102
MS
US
100
Percent
98
96
94
92
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
Year
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
M…
MS Regains 2000 Employment In 2015
EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF 2000 EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, U.S. &
MISSISSIPPI
MS
US
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
1996 1998
2000 2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
MS
2014
Year
Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.
Madison Payroll Employment
Outpaces State
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
IN MADISON AND REST OF STATE
2001 = 100
Total State
Madison
150
130
110
90
M…
T…
Source: MS Dept. of Employment Security
Major New & On-Going Projects
Toyota Auto Plant
LNG Project
Port at Gulfport
Stion
$1.3 billion
$1.1 billion
$570 million
$500 million
Severstal Expansion
KiOR
Schulz Extruded Products
Twin Creeks Technologies
$500 million
$500 million
$300 million
$175 million
Source: Mississippi Authority Development
Growth in State General Fund Transfers
( FY2010 vs. FY2011, Through April)
Sales Tax
1
Indiv Income Tax
4.4
Corpor Income Tax
7.5
Use Tax
-3.7
Gaming Fees&Taxes
-1.2
Insur Premium Tax
12.9
2.9
TOTAL G.F. Revenue
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Percentage Change
SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue.
8
10
12
14
Health Leads State Employment Growth
2009 to 2010
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
Constr
Manuf
Finance
Leisure,Hosp
Trade
Business,Prof
Govt
Transport,Util
Health,Social
Mining
TOTAL
-8.4
-3.4
-2
-1.3
-0.1
0.2
0.4
1.3
2.7
3.6
-1.3
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
0
2
4
Health Long-Term Leader
Employment Growth: 2000 – 2010
Health,Social Asst
2.9
Govt
0.6
Business,Prof
0.5
Transport,Util
0.4
Finance
-0.2
Leisure,Hosp
-0.4
Mining
-0.8
Trade
-0.9
Constr
-1
Manuf
-3.9
TOTAL
-0.6
-5
-3
-1
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
1
3
Mississippi Employment Growth
March 2010 to March 2011
CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
Business,Prof
Mining
Constr
Health,Social
Transport,Util
Trade
Leisure,Hosp
Finance
Manuf
Govt
TOTAL
10.9
3.6
3.6
2.8
1.5
1
0.3
-1.6
-1.7
-2.3
0.8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Percentage Change
Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.
6
8
10
12
14
MS Health and Other Sectors vs. US
(Percent)
23%
MS
US
20%
17%
16%
13%
13%
11%
11%
10%
9%
13%
8%
4%
0%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4%
4%
Forecast Growth Rate of Employment
2011 – 2016 Average Annual Rate
Business,Other Serv
Health & Social Asst
Construction
Transport & Utilities
Manufacturing
Trade
Leisure,Hospitality
Agric, Forest,Fish
Government
Finance, Real Est
Mining
TOTAL
-2.5
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.3
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.5
-1.2
1.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.
1.5
2.5
3.5
Health Care & Economy
 Employment, payrolls, tax revenues
 Multiplier impact –
Out-of-state sales
In-state purchases
Federal matching funds
 Higher worker productivity
 Research creating spin-offs
 Rate of increase in cost problematic
Countries with Highest Per Capita Health
Expenditures 2008
OECD Countries with Highest Per Capita
Health Care Expenditures 2008 (Plus France, Germany & Sweden)
$8,500
$7,538
$7,500
$6,500
$5,500
$4,500
$3,500
$5,003
$4,237
$4,079
$3,737
$3,008
$2,500
Source: OECD.
$4,927
$4,063
$3,470
Madison County Employment
By Sector 2010
Other
20%
Trade
21%
Prof &
Business
Serv
12%
Government
11%
Health & Ed
10%
Leisure &
Hosp
12%
Source: MS Dept of Employment Security.
Manuf
14%
Average Annual Growth of Employment
In Health & Educ. Services
2001 to 2010
9.7%
5.9%
4.1%
2.8%
U.S.
2.7%
2.3%
MS.
Madison Rankin
Hinds
DeSoto
Physicians Per 1,000 Persons &
County Health Outcomes
Physicians per 1,000
Hinds
Rankin
Madison
DeSoto
6.6
1.8
1.5
1.1
Outcome Rank
39
3
7
1
Mississippi
1.9
(State health outcomes rank 50th among states.)
Source: CountyHealthRankings.org
IN SUMMARY
Mississippi economic outlook – slow but positive
growth
 Employment back to 2000 level by 2015
 Health care leader in employment growth
Madison health care sector: broad impact

Multipliers AND higher worker productivity

Health costs & competitiveness

Key sector for state and Madison
MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW
& OUTLOOK
and
MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINESS at
www.mississippi.edu/URC
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